Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Albany, OK
June 2, 2024 3:10 PM CDT (20:10 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 6:13 AM Sunset 8:33 PM Moonrise 2:23 AM Moonset 3:36 PM |
FXUS64 KOUN 021826 AFDOUN
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Norman OK 126 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024
New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
MESOSCALE UPDATE FOR SEVERE WEATHER
Issued at 1059 AM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024
Near-term forecast has undergone some complications this morning.
Convection across the eastern Texas panhandle, rather than dying out, has intensified and begun propagating eastward across the Red River Valley of southwest Oklahoma. The likely culprit appears to be two-fold - first, a surge of greater boundary layer moisture with dewpoints in the low 70s in southern Oklahoma; and secondly, the development of an MCV from the panhandle storms to aid in forcing for convection to develop. While no convection-allowing models have handled this turn of events well, short-range guidance shows MLCAPE increasing from 1,500-2,000 J/kg this morning to nearly 4,000 J/kg (almost certainly overdone thanks to widespread anvil shading in reality, but still a signal of the increasing moisture/lapse rates aloft) by noon.
The ongoing storms will continue to propagate eastward along the developing MCV throughout the rest of the morning and into early this afternoon. The severe risk will be on the sporadic side due to the weak nature of overall deep-layer shear. Still, hail to the size of quarters, damaging wind gusts up to 60 mph, frequent cloud-to- ground lightning, and heavy rainfall will all be possible with this activity as it approaches I-35 along and south of I-40. It's possible the activity will begin to weaken this afternoon as it approaches southeast Oklahoma. Then our eyes will turn to potential next rounds of severe weather.
Meister
SHORT TERM
(This afternoon through tonight) Issued at 125 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024
The next chance for storms after this early round won't wait long, as another round of convection is expected to work in this evening from the Texas panhandle. Some questions exist about how much of our area will experience storms this evening due to the steady push of outflow southward into western north Texas. However, West Texas Mesonet obs show winds north of the boundary from the east and winds south of the boundary from the south - an indication that perhaps the boundary is stalling or "washing out". Dewpoints have dropped to near 60 on the north side, but it is June so we will have to monitor for evapotranspirative recovery in western Oklahoma. For now, the greatest risk for storms this afternoon will be in western north Texas along and south of the outflow boundary. Large hail and damaging winds will be possible, especially if storms can attain a more supercellular structure and remain close to the boundary.
This evening, activity will approach western Oklahoma and western north Texas from the Texas panhandle after firing off of the dryline. Uncertainty is extremely high given the current presence of the cold pool/stable air. However, the low-level jet will be active this evening, which lends some concern to the notion that we could re-destabilize this evening in advance of another MCS. Trends will be watched closely.
Believe it or not, there is actually a signal for yet another MCS this evening to come southeastward out of Kansas. This one might be impacting our area late tonight through daybreak tomorrow. Beyond that, there is so much mesoscale uncertainty that it just bears waiting to see what will happen.
Meister
LONG TERM
(Monday through next Saturday) Issued at 125 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024
The aforementioned round of storms coming out of Kansas into northern Oklahoma will throw a wrench into tomorrow's forecast, which looked like it might be a pseudo-classic dryline environment otherwise. Instead, every indication is that early convection will leave behind one or both of an outflow boundary and a remnant MCV, which may focus the severe threat tomorrow afternoon somewhere in either south central or southeast Oklahoma. Given the presence of those 70+ dewpoints, which shouldn't be battered too far southward by today's storms, damaging winds, large hail, and perhaps a tornado risk can be expected.
Height rises during the day on Tuesday will give it the best chance to be our clearest day in a while. With that will come the best chance for parts of southwest Oklahoma and western north Texas to see their first or second 100-degree days of the year. Highs elsewhere will rise will into the 90s. The jet will remain active just to our north, and enhanced northwest flow across the central Plains will increase the chance for yet another nocturnal MCS across the northern half of our area Tuesday night.
Drier conditions once again look likely on Wednesday and potentially even Wednesday night, though not quite as hot.
Thereafter, the storm chances become a bit more nebulous/hard to forecast, though there is a signal for the worst of the summertime heat to remain to our south and west.
Meister
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1227 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024
TSRA from a MCV will continue to impact our terminals in central through southwest Oklahoma and western north Texas reducing them to MVFR conditions with a low CB cloud deck and reduced visibility at times through 23Z. A second round of storms associated with an MCS coming off the High Plains may affect our terminals after 03Z resulting in MVFR to IFR conditions although probabilities are low at this point so have PROB30s in place.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Oklahoma City OK 84 68 85 71 / 80 40 50 20 Hobart OK 83 67 93 69 / 70 40 20 10 Wichita Falls TX 85 69 91 73 / 80 40 20 10 Gage OK 87 65 93 66 / 20 40 20 10 Ponca City OK 86 68 84 69 / 30 40 50 30 Durant OK 86 69 86 72 / 60 40 40 20
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...None.
TX...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Norman OK 126 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024
New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
MESOSCALE UPDATE FOR SEVERE WEATHER
Issued at 1059 AM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024
Near-term forecast has undergone some complications this morning.
Convection across the eastern Texas panhandle, rather than dying out, has intensified and begun propagating eastward across the Red River Valley of southwest Oklahoma. The likely culprit appears to be two-fold - first, a surge of greater boundary layer moisture with dewpoints in the low 70s in southern Oklahoma; and secondly, the development of an MCV from the panhandle storms to aid in forcing for convection to develop. While no convection-allowing models have handled this turn of events well, short-range guidance shows MLCAPE increasing from 1,500-2,000 J/kg this morning to nearly 4,000 J/kg (almost certainly overdone thanks to widespread anvil shading in reality, but still a signal of the increasing moisture/lapse rates aloft) by noon.
The ongoing storms will continue to propagate eastward along the developing MCV throughout the rest of the morning and into early this afternoon. The severe risk will be on the sporadic side due to the weak nature of overall deep-layer shear. Still, hail to the size of quarters, damaging wind gusts up to 60 mph, frequent cloud-to- ground lightning, and heavy rainfall will all be possible with this activity as it approaches I-35 along and south of I-40. It's possible the activity will begin to weaken this afternoon as it approaches southeast Oklahoma. Then our eyes will turn to potential next rounds of severe weather.
Meister
SHORT TERM
(This afternoon through tonight) Issued at 125 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024
The next chance for storms after this early round won't wait long, as another round of convection is expected to work in this evening from the Texas panhandle. Some questions exist about how much of our area will experience storms this evening due to the steady push of outflow southward into western north Texas. However, West Texas Mesonet obs show winds north of the boundary from the east and winds south of the boundary from the south - an indication that perhaps the boundary is stalling or "washing out". Dewpoints have dropped to near 60 on the north side, but it is June so we will have to monitor for evapotranspirative recovery in western Oklahoma. For now, the greatest risk for storms this afternoon will be in western north Texas along and south of the outflow boundary. Large hail and damaging winds will be possible, especially if storms can attain a more supercellular structure and remain close to the boundary.
This evening, activity will approach western Oklahoma and western north Texas from the Texas panhandle after firing off of the dryline. Uncertainty is extremely high given the current presence of the cold pool/stable air. However, the low-level jet will be active this evening, which lends some concern to the notion that we could re-destabilize this evening in advance of another MCS. Trends will be watched closely.
Believe it or not, there is actually a signal for yet another MCS this evening to come southeastward out of Kansas. This one might be impacting our area late tonight through daybreak tomorrow. Beyond that, there is so much mesoscale uncertainty that it just bears waiting to see what will happen.
Meister
LONG TERM
(Monday through next Saturday) Issued at 125 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024
The aforementioned round of storms coming out of Kansas into northern Oklahoma will throw a wrench into tomorrow's forecast, which looked like it might be a pseudo-classic dryline environment otherwise. Instead, every indication is that early convection will leave behind one or both of an outflow boundary and a remnant MCV, which may focus the severe threat tomorrow afternoon somewhere in either south central or southeast Oklahoma. Given the presence of those 70+ dewpoints, which shouldn't be battered too far southward by today's storms, damaging winds, large hail, and perhaps a tornado risk can be expected.
Height rises during the day on Tuesday will give it the best chance to be our clearest day in a while. With that will come the best chance for parts of southwest Oklahoma and western north Texas to see their first or second 100-degree days of the year. Highs elsewhere will rise will into the 90s. The jet will remain active just to our north, and enhanced northwest flow across the central Plains will increase the chance for yet another nocturnal MCS across the northern half of our area Tuesday night.
Drier conditions once again look likely on Wednesday and potentially even Wednesday night, though not quite as hot.
Thereafter, the storm chances become a bit more nebulous/hard to forecast, though there is a signal for the worst of the summertime heat to remain to our south and west.
Meister
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1227 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024
TSRA from a MCV will continue to impact our terminals in central through southwest Oklahoma and western north Texas reducing them to MVFR conditions with a low CB cloud deck and reduced visibility at times through 23Z. A second round of storms associated with an MCS coming off the High Plains may affect our terminals after 03Z resulting in MVFR to IFR conditions although probabilities are low at this point so have PROB30s in place.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Oklahoma City OK 84 68 85 71 / 80 40 50 20 Hobart OK 83 67 93 69 / 70 40 20 10 Wichita Falls TX 85 69 91 73 / 80 40 20 10 Gage OK 87 65 93 66 / 20 40 20 10 Ponca City OK 86 68 84 69 / 30 40 50 30 Durant OK 86 69 86 72 / 60 40 40 20
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...None.
TX...None.
| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KDUA DURANT RGNL EAKER FIELD,OK | 22 sm | 15 min | E 08 | 10 sm | Overcast | 79°F | 70°F | 74% | 29.94 |
Dallas/Fort Worth, TX,
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