Sunrise 6:38 AM   Sunset 8:07 PM Moonrise 11:12 PM   Moonset 7:48 AM

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FXUS64 KOUN 270646 AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Norman OK 146 AM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM

SHORT TERM
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 145 AM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

Very active day expected across Oklahoma and western north Texas as multiple rounds of severe storms will impact the area.

A subtle wave will get things started later this morning as it initiates storms across northwest Texas that will then move/develop northeast across southwest into western and perhaps central Oklahoma during the first part of the day today. Even at this time of day the environment will be conducive for severe storms and even though large hail will be the primary hazard, soundings would suggest there is at least some tornado risk as well. Some questions remain as to how this activity will evolve during the day, but is currently expected to move off to the north and northeast during the early afternoon.

In the wake of the morning convection anticipate airmass across the area to destabilize through the afternoon to the east of the dryline which will be located across western Oklahoma southward into western north Texas. As the approaching large-scale trough and associated lift interacts on the dryline, expected another round or two of scattered thunderstorms to develop along and ahead of the dryline.
With upwards of 3000-3500 J/kg of CAPE along with deep layer shear of 40-50kts the environment will support supercells with the potential for very large hail, damaging winds and tornadoes(some strong tornadoes possible as well). Wind fields will continue to strengthen late in the day and into the evening with llj development. This will also increase tornado potential with any supercell storms.

This activity is expected to grow upscale into a slow-moving squall- line with damaging wind gusts and some continued risk of tornadoes the main severe hazards as we go deeper into the evening and overnight. The slow eastward progression and high precipitable water will also lead to increased flooding threat. A Flood Watch remains in effect through tonight for portions central into eastern Oklahoma.

To the west of the dryline across far west/northwest Oklahoma there will be a period of elevated to perhaps near critical fire weather conditions that develop this afternoon. Will issue another RFD for that area.

LONG TERM
(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 145 AM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

Overnight storms will linger into Sunday, mainly across southeast Oklahoma, where heavy rainfall and severe risk will continue. All this activity should shift east of the area by late in the day Sunday. Some drier air will then move into the area with a couple of drier days. A minor wave will work through the area on Monday, but rain chances associated with this will be minimal.

South winds return Tuesday and with veered low level flow, much warmer 850mb temps will result in a much warmer day. Significant differences with respect to precip occur Tuesday afternoon and Tuesday night. With southwest flow does appear there is a chance of precip, but GFS looks a bit overdone.

Some rain and thunderstorm chances continue through the remainder of the week. We do look to remain in modest southwest flow and sufficient instability will be present for the potential for some severe weather just about any day from Wednesday through Friday, no widespread severe currently is expected.

A rather strong cold front will bring some cooler/drier weather by the end of the and into the following weekend.

AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 619 PM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

Gusty south winds will persist until 272400. MVFR ceilings are expected to form tonight and last into Saturday morning.
Thunderstorms are expected to form near KSPS and KLAW before sunrise. Severe storms, including tornadoes, are possible in the afternoon north to south through all of central Oklahoma.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Oklahoma City OK 77 60 79 56 / 80 70 20 0 Hobart OK 83 56 80 53 / 80 40 0 10 Wichita Falls TX 79 59 81 56 / 70 80 0 0 Gage OK 86 51 78 48 / 30 10 0 10 Ponca City OK 80 59 80 50 / 80 70 40 10 Durant OK 81 62 77 61 / 70 90 80 10

OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...Flood Watch from 7 AM CDT this morning through Sunday evening for OKZ020-025-026-028>032-039>043-045>048-050>052.

TX...None.

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