Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Nora, IL
June 2, 2024 3:19 PM CDT (20:19 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 5:21 AM Sunset 8:31 PM Moonrise 1:52 AM Moonset 3:22 PM |
Area Discussion for - Quad Cities, IA/IL
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FXUS63 KDVN 021900 AFDDVN
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL 200 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- An active, summer-like pattern will be found through early week, with warm/muggy conditions and multiple chances of showers and storms. Monday PM and Tuesday PM will be monitored for strong to severe storms.
- Mainly dry mid week to late week with seasonal temperatures.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
Issued at 200 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024
It's taken through early afternoon, but we've finally broken through the fog and stratus that was over the area this morning. This has allowed temperatures to break into the lower to mid 70s, and highs around 80 still seem possible, given the high sun angle, and longer daylight hours of June 2.
Looking west, the main focus of warm advection continues to be over the Plains states, as a next short wave in the eastern Rockies begins to move out into the Plains tonight. The convection over Omaha dissipated quickly as it moved out of this axis this morning, with only high level debris clouds moving into our area. Thus, we're looking at a dry afternoon and evening ahead, as the next short wave is well to our west.
Tonight, the LLJ should be focused into Nebraska and western Iowa through Midnight, then is expected to veer to the east towards late night/early Monday. There are widely varied model solutions regarding the convection to the west, but the vast majority of solutions show a weakening band of showers and storms moving into our northwestern counties around 3 AM to 6 AM. I've kept pops in the high chance to likely range there, but otherwise, have lower chance pops going late tonight into Monday. We'll have plenty of moisture for storms, but we'll need to have activity shift into us, and that's a few dominoes down the line in this low predictability of QPF placement summer pattern.
Monday, both a remnant rain area, or outflow will move into the area in the morning
This will offer a few things confidently
One, we'll need to wait until debris clouds thin before we can warm up to any new convective process, and I believe the NBM highs are too warm in the upper 80s in most locations because of that evolution. I've gone with the 25th percentile NBM highs, in the upper 70s north to mid 80s central and south. Secondly, this outflow could provide adequate focus for afternoon strong to severe storms, assuming we can heat up along it. While global models are not showing this, it can clearly be seen in some CAMs runs, especially the NAMnest and FV3. Storms near any boundary are likely to experience notable augmentation to the deep layer shear in the presence of moderate instability (MLCAPE progged around 1500+ j/kg).
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
Issued at 200 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024
Monday night, activity may be ongoing during the evening, and shifting east of our area by overnight. This remains a low confidence time, as the short wave exits, but another stronger wave moves out into the Midwest Tuesday. The upper wave moving through Tuesday continues to show synoptic support for strong to severe storms, but there's lots of potential for a large MCS to move through Tuesday evening, thus, we're leaning towards a wind threat in storms. Heating is not a certainty Tuesday, with the whole region in broad warm advection through the day. In any case, this remains a high probability of rainfall, and the best chance for organized severe weather in our week's forecast.
Behind this strong upper wave and low pressure (in Canada) the strong cold front should sweep across the region Tuesday night, with another dry, pleasant air mass found behind it. Highs in the 70s, and lows in the 50s are in store for Thursday through the weekend, with Wednesday being a warmer, but breezy transition day, represented by lowering humidity levels through the day. Certainly active, but turning very pleasant!
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
Issued at 1223 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024
The widespread IFR/MVFR conditions of this morning are becoming widespread VFR as of late morning, with the remainder of the day time hours expected to be VFR, though a brief higher end MVFR cig cannot be ruled out through 19Z. Tonight's rain and thunder chances now appear more marginal, as the focus for storms may remain well to the west of eastern Iowa until late tonight. A veering low level jet will possibly bring this activity eastward after 08z tonight, in a dissipating mode, thus, we have retained a prob30 group for thunder in the 08-12 period in northeast Iowa and reduced it to showers to the southeast in MLI/BRL. Low confidence on showers/thunder remain in place through the day Monday, with most hours dry and VFR after 14z.
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IA...None.
IL...None.
MO...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL 200 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- An active, summer-like pattern will be found through early week, with warm/muggy conditions and multiple chances of showers and storms. Monday PM and Tuesday PM will be monitored for strong to severe storms.
- Mainly dry mid week to late week with seasonal temperatures.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
Issued at 200 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024
It's taken through early afternoon, but we've finally broken through the fog and stratus that was over the area this morning. This has allowed temperatures to break into the lower to mid 70s, and highs around 80 still seem possible, given the high sun angle, and longer daylight hours of June 2.
Looking west, the main focus of warm advection continues to be over the Plains states, as a next short wave in the eastern Rockies begins to move out into the Plains tonight. The convection over Omaha dissipated quickly as it moved out of this axis this morning, with only high level debris clouds moving into our area. Thus, we're looking at a dry afternoon and evening ahead, as the next short wave is well to our west.
Tonight, the LLJ should be focused into Nebraska and western Iowa through Midnight, then is expected to veer to the east towards late night/early Monday. There are widely varied model solutions regarding the convection to the west, but the vast majority of solutions show a weakening band of showers and storms moving into our northwestern counties around 3 AM to 6 AM. I've kept pops in the high chance to likely range there, but otherwise, have lower chance pops going late tonight into Monday. We'll have plenty of moisture for storms, but we'll need to have activity shift into us, and that's a few dominoes down the line in this low predictability of QPF placement summer pattern.
Monday, both a remnant rain area, or outflow will move into the area in the morning
This will offer a few things confidently
One, we'll need to wait until debris clouds thin before we can warm up to any new convective process, and I believe the NBM highs are too warm in the upper 80s in most locations because of that evolution. I've gone with the 25th percentile NBM highs, in the upper 70s north to mid 80s central and south. Secondly, this outflow could provide adequate focus for afternoon strong to severe storms, assuming we can heat up along it. While global models are not showing this, it can clearly be seen in some CAMs runs, especially the NAMnest and FV3. Storms near any boundary are likely to experience notable augmentation to the deep layer shear in the presence of moderate instability (MLCAPE progged around 1500+ j/kg).
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
Issued at 200 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024
Monday night, activity may be ongoing during the evening, and shifting east of our area by overnight. This remains a low confidence time, as the short wave exits, but another stronger wave moves out into the Midwest Tuesday. The upper wave moving through Tuesday continues to show synoptic support for strong to severe storms, but there's lots of potential for a large MCS to move through Tuesday evening, thus, we're leaning towards a wind threat in storms. Heating is not a certainty Tuesday, with the whole region in broad warm advection through the day. In any case, this remains a high probability of rainfall, and the best chance for organized severe weather in our week's forecast.
Behind this strong upper wave and low pressure (in Canada) the strong cold front should sweep across the region Tuesday night, with another dry, pleasant air mass found behind it. Highs in the 70s, and lows in the 50s are in store for Thursday through the weekend, with Wednesday being a warmer, but breezy transition day, represented by lowering humidity levels through the day. Certainly active, but turning very pleasant!
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
Issued at 1223 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024
The widespread IFR/MVFR conditions of this morning are becoming widespread VFR as of late morning, with the remainder of the day time hours expected to be VFR, though a brief higher end MVFR cig cannot be ruled out through 19Z. Tonight's rain and thunder chances now appear more marginal, as the focus for storms may remain well to the west of eastern Iowa until late tonight. A veering low level jet will possibly bring this activity eastward after 08z tonight, in a dissipating mode, thus, we have retained a prob30 group for thunder in the 08-12 period in northeast Iowa and reduced it to showers to the southeast in MLI/BRL. Low confidence on showers/thunder remain in place through the day Monday, with most hours dry and VFR after 14z.
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IA...None.
IL...None.
MO...None.
Quad Cities, IA,
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