Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Nora, IL
April 27, 2024 1:44 AM CDT (06:44 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 5:56 AM Sunset 7:55 PM Moonrise 11:22 PM Moonset 6:50 AM |
Area Discussion for - Quad Cities, IA/IL
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FXUS63 KDVN 270511 AFDDVN
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL 1211 AM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024
Updated for 06z Aviation
KEY MESSAGES
- Active pattern through the weekend with several rounds of showers and thunderstorms with an additional 1-3+ inches of rain likely.
- Flash Flooding is a concern for areas that receive repeated rounds of thunderstorms Saturday night. Confidence remains low on the placement of the heaviest rainfall.
- Severe storm risk exists through the weekend, but there remains uncertainty as prior rounds of convection may impact magnitude/timing/location of any severe weather threat.
UPDATE
Issued at 809 PM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024
SPC mesoanalysis page is showing broad warm advection across Iowa this evening in the 925 to 850 mb layer. The 00z sounding this evening shows some destabilization in the mid levels with most unstable CAPE values of 597 J/KG with deep layer shear values around 50 knots. ACARs soundings to the southwest in Missouri show warming temperatures at 850 and further cooling in the mid levels should lead to increasing mid level instability setting the stage for the potential for storms tonight to produce large hail. The last 4 runs of the HRRR show shower and storms redeveloping over the next couple of hours largely south of a Fairfield to Freeport Illinois line and lifting northeastward. Looking farther to the west, an arcing line of thunderstorms stretches from Spencer to Des Moines to north of Lamoni Iowa with multiple tornado warnings at this time. CAMs show this activity clipping our CWA north of a Fairfield to Dubuque line overnight with the capping increasing at 850 think that there will be a large hail threat across this area from 4 to 8 UTC. After this lifts northeastward, quiet weather is forecast for the rest of tonight.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Issued at 255 PM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024
A large area of light to moderate rain will continue to work through the region from SW to NE into the late afternoon hours.
There have been embedded thunderstorms at times mainly along/south of I-80, but this heavier activity has diminished significantly over the past few hours. On the northern edge of the rain shield, across portions of eastern Iowa into northwest Illinois, we had a period of strong SE winds during the mid to late morning with many locations peaking between 40 - 50 mph.
Cedar Rapids was the outlier, reaching 65 mph! These unexpected strong winds occurred in a region of subsidence sufficient to mix down momentum tied to a robust southeasterly LLJ. Still gusty SE to S winds will continue through this evening into tonight, but likely on the order of 30 to 40 mph for peak gusts.
Persistent elevated warm air advection north of a warm front draped across northern Missouri will likely lead to another round of scattered showers and isolated storms developing this evening into early tonight. However, coverage with this round does not look to be quite as widespread as earlier today. Any threat for severe weather remains low as the better moisture is forecast to hold south across central Missouri and the stronger dynamics to the west near a surface low over western/central Iowa. By late tonight, expect mostly dry conditions with breezy S to SSW winds.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
Issued at 255 PM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024
Saturday:
A lull in convection is anticipated through much of the day as low pressure shifts toward Lake Superior with the attendant cold front/low-level boundary expected to hold to our west across central Iowa. Gusty southerly winds developing tonight (Friday night) will last through the day on Saturday and advect a warm and humid air mass into the region with highs in the upper 70s to low 80s; dewpoints rising into the 60s will make it feel rather humid. There is a low chance for isolated storms during the early/mid afternoon period; however, confidence is low on activity developing that early. The better chance for storms is Saturday evening into the nighttime as a mid-level wave approaches from the southwest. Confidence remains low on the exact placement for this period, but the environment will be supportive of strong to severe storms with sufficient MUCAPE (2000+ J/kg) and deep layer shear (35+ kts).
The primary threat into Saturday night may transition to heavy rainfall and localized flash flooding with high PWATs up to 1.5 inches. There is also the potential for repeated rounds of storms as mean 850-300mb flow steers the convection in a SW to NE trajectory, as a new area of low pressure organizes over the Central Plains. The 12Z HRRR that grouped several of the CAMs output together shows localized amounts over 3 inches in our CWA A Flood Watch may be needed eventually due to the potential for an additional 1-3+ inches of rainfall through the weekend.
Held off for now because of the aforementioned low confidence on placement of the heaviest rainfall. A look at the latest 1 - 3 hr flash flood guidance shows values approximately in the 1.5 to 3 inch range.
Sunday: The upper low will lift out and take a similar path to the previous shortwave from Colorado into the Upper Midwest by Monday morning. We'll see widespread showers and storms occur Sunday into Sunday night with the warm, moist advection and increasing synoptic scale lift then followed by the cold frontal passage Sunday night into Monday AM. The widespread precipitation and cloud cover brings about uncertainty as to the severe weather potential and magnitude/location, etc.
Overall, we have 2 surges of PWATs of around 1.5 inches the first today into this evening and the second Saturday night through Sunday. Those would be the periods favored for locally heavy rainfall concerns.
Between both events many areas will see widespread 1 inch or more (today through Sunday) with areas/swaths of 2 - 4+ inches where rounds of convection occur that will bring a risk of isolated flash flooding.
In the wake of the cold front, the start of next week looks to turn quieter and drier. However, there's signs that an active pattern will return mid to late next week with the flow becoming semi-zonal shuttling impulses across the Midwest from the Pacific along a meandering mid level baroclinic zone.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
Issued at 1158 PM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024
Predominantly MVFR to VFR conditions expected. Low potential (20% chance) for showers and storms early in the TAF period.
Otherwise, at least scattered storms are expected to develop by later Saturday PM through Saturday night with an attendant threat for severe weather ahead of a stalled boundary. Timing/ location remains a challenge and so have opted for PROB30 mention at the terminals after 21z. Conditions will be MVFR to IFR in the precipitation with strong, gusty winds possible.
Otherwise, winds outside of any convection will generally remain gusty throughout at 10-20 kts from a southerly direction with the exception being KCID and KDBQ by later Saturday PM/evening where proximity to the boundary could result in winds diminishing some and becoming variable.
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IA...None.
IL...None.
MO...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL 1211 AM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024
Updated for 06z Aviation
KEY MESSAGES
- Active pattern through the weekend with several rounds of showers and thunderstorms with an additional 1-3+ inches of rain likely.
- Flash Flooding is a concern for areas that receive repeated rounds of thunderstorms Saturday night. Confidence remains low on the placement of the heaviest rainfall.
- Severe storm risk exists through the weekend, but there remains uncertainty as prior rounds of convection may impact magnitude/timing/location of any severe weather threat.
UPDATE
Issued at 809 PM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024
SPC mesoanalysis page is showing broad warm advection across Iowa this evening in the 925 to 850 mb layer. The 00z sounding this evening shows some destabilization in the mid levels with most unstable CAPE values of 597 J/KG with deep layer shear values around 50 knots. ACARs soundings to the southwest in Missouri show warming temperatures at 850 and further cooling in the mid levels should lead to increasing mid level instability setting the stage for the potential for storms tonight to produce large hail. The last 4 runs of the HRRR show shower and storms redeveloping over the next couple of hours largely south of a Fairfield to Freeport Illinois line and lifting northeastward. Looking farther to the west, an arcing line of thunderstorms stretches from Spencer to Des Moines to north of Lamoni Iowa with multiple tornado warnings at this time. CAMs show this activity clipping our CWA north of a Fairfield to Dubuque line overnight with the capping increasing at 850 think that there will be a large hail threat across this area from 4 to 8 UTC. After this lifts northeastward, quiet weather is forecast for the rest of tonight.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Issued at 255 PM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024
A large area of light to moderate rain will continue to work through the region from SW to NE into the late afternoon hours.
There have been embedded thunderstorms at times mainly along/south of I-80, but this heavier activity has diminished significantly over the past few hours. On the northern edge of the rain shield, across portions of eastern Iowa into northwest Illinois, we had a period of strong SE winds during the mid to late morning with many locations peaking between 40 - 50 mph.
Cedar Rapids was the outlier, reaching 65 mph! These unexpected strong winds occurred in a region of subsidence sufficient to mix down momentum tied to a robust southeasterly LLJ. Still gusty SE to S winds will continue through this evening into tonight, but likely on the order of 30 to 40 mph for peak gusts.
Persistent elevated warm air advection north of a warm front draped across northern Missouri will likely lead to another round of scattered showers and isolated storms developing this evening into early tonight. However, coverage with this round does not look to be quite as widespread as earlier today. Any threat for severe weather remains low as the better moisture is forecast to hold south across central Missouri and the stronger dynamics to the west near a surface low over western/central Iowa. By late tonight, expect mostly dry conditions with breezy S to SSW winds.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
Issued at 255 PM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024
Saturday:
A lull in convection is anticipated through much of the day as low pressure shifts toward Lake Superior with the attendant cold front/low-level boundary expected to hold to our west across central Iowa. Gusty southerly winds developing tonight (Friday night) will last through the day on Saturday and advect a warm and humid air mass into the region with highs in the upper 70s to low 80s; dewpoints rising into the 60s will make it feel rather humid. There is a low chance for isolated storms during the early/mid afternoon period; however, confidence is low on activity developing that early. The better chance for storms is Saturday evening into the nighttime as a mid-level wave approaches from the southwest. Confidence remains low on the exact placement for this period, but the environment will be supportive of strong to severe storms with sufficient MUCAPE (2000+ J/kg) and deep layer shear (35+ kts).
The primary threat into Saturday night may transition to heavy rainfall and localized flash flooding with high PWATs up to 1.5 inches. There is also the potential for repeated rounds of storms as mean 850-300mb flow steers the convection in a SW to NE trajectory, as a new area of low pressure organizes over the Central Plains. The 12Z HRRR that grouped several of the CAMs output together shows localized amounts over 3 inches in our CWA A Flood Watch may be needed eventually due to the potential for an additional 1-3+ inches of rainfall through the weekend.
Held off for now because of the aforementioned low confidence on placement of the heaviest rainfall. A look at the latest 1 - 3 hr flash flood guidance shows values approximately in the 1.5 to 3 inch range.
Sunday: The upper low will lift out and take a similar path to the previous shortwave from Colorado into the Upper Midwest by Monday morning. We'll see widespread showers and storms occur Sunday into Sunday night with the warm, moist advection and increasing synoptic scale lift then followed by the cold frontal passage Sunday night into Monday AM. The widespread precipitation and cloud cover brings about uncertainty as to the severe weather potential and magnitude/location, etc.
Overall, we have 2 surges of PWATs of around 1.5 inches the first today into this evening and the second Saturday night through Sunday. Those would be the periods favored for locally heavy rainfall concerns.
Between both events many areas will see widespread 1 inch or more (today through Sunday) with areas/swaths of 2 - 4+ inches where rounds of convection occur that will bring a risk of isolated flash flooding.
In the wake of the cold front, the start of next week looks to turn quieter and drier. However, there's signs that an active pattern will return mid to late next week with the flow becoming semi-zonal shuttling impulses across the Midwest from the Pacific along a meandering mid level baroclinic zone.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
Issued at 1158 PM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024
Predominantly MVFR to VFR conditions expected. Low potential (20% chance) for showers and storms early in the TAF period.
Otherwise, at least scattered storms are expected to develop by later Saturday PM through Saturday night with an attendant threat for severe weather ahead of a stalled boundary. Timing/ location remains a challenge and so have opted for PROB30 mention at the terminals after 21z. Conditions will be MVFR to IFR in the precipitation with strong, gusty winds possible.
Otherwise, winds outside of any convection will generally remain gusty throughout at 10-20 kts from a southerly direction with the exception being KCID and KDBQ by later Saturday PM/evening where proximity to the boundary could result in winds diminishing some and becoming variable.
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IA...None.
IL...None.
MO...None.
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