Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Cuthbert, GA
June 14, 2024 12:38 AM EDT (04:38 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 6:29 AM Sunset 8:44 PM Moonrise 1:05 PM Moonset 12:57 AM |
Area Discussion for - Tallahassee, FL
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FXUS62 KTAE 140052 AFDTAE
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 852 PM EDT Thu Jun 13 2024
New UPDATE
UPDATE
Issued at 850 PM EDT Thu Jun 13 2024
Lowered rain chances across the Southeast Florida Big Bend for tonight based on latest trends. Otherwise, the forecast is on track.
NEAR TERM
(Through Friday)
Issued at 354 PM EDT Thu Jun 13 2024
Upper level troughing will slowly give way to high pressure building in from the west. At the surface, high pressure builds which combined with the upper level trough, should lead to suppressed convection. Should any storms develop, we're expecting them to generally be south of I-10 and along the sea breeze. But confidence is low in that happening. Tomorrow will be the beginning of the warming trend. Highs will make it into the mid 90s for much the region, with feels like temperatures in the mid to upper 90s for SE AL and SW GA. FL counties' feels like temperatures will higher, in the upper 90s to low 90s.
SHORT TERM
(Friday night through Saturday night)
Issued at 354 PM EDT Thu Jun 13 2024
A strong mid-upper ridge building from the west ushers in hazardous heat conditions through the weekend. Inland air temperatures are forecast to peak around 100 degrees under mostly strong mid-June sunshine. These values are much warmer than normal for this time of year, but much less than the daily record maximum from the brutal June 15, 2011 heat. Factoring 60s & 70s dew points yield heat indices ranging from 104-110, which mostly meets our local advisory criteria. If trends continue or increase, then our first Heat Advisory could be issued as soon as Friday. Our FL counties would be the most likely targets. Isolated afternoon showers/thunderstorms are possible along the seabreeze zone with the best chances in the Eastern Big Bend. Muggy overnight lows in the 70s won't provide much relief.
LONG TERM
(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 354 PM EDT Thu Jun 13 2024
Hot weather continues into early next week as the aforementioned ridge pivots through the region. Sunday's high-temperature forecast is a touch lower than Saturday with widespread upper 90s (isolated 100) away from the immediate coast. Heat indices range from about 101-107. We gradually trend "cooler" each successive day in response to the center of a stout upper anti-cyclone shifting to the Mid- Atlantic states. Meanwhile, global models/ensembles continue to highlight solid potential for tropical development in the Bay of Campeche that would threaten Mexico. This synoptic pattern yields a brisk easterly flow regime with an increasing pressure gradient across the Gulf. A plethora of tropical moisture and enhanced Atlantic seabreeze supports daily chances for showers and thunderstorms, especially along/south of the FL state line. Low to mid 70s for minimum temperatures will be common through the long- term period.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 706 PM EDT Thu Jun 13 2024
VFR conditions are generally expected to prevail through the TAF period with light to moderate northeasterly winds. A bit of a sea breeze is expected at KECP Friday afternoon. While an isolated shower or thunderstorm may develop along the sea breeze Friday afternoon, confidence in when and where was too low to include in any of the TAF sites at this time as rain chances are currently less than 20 percent.
MARINE
Issued at 354 PM EDT Thu Jun 13 2024
Generally light winds are expected through the weekend outside of maritime convection with dominant pre-weekend wave periods of 6 to 7 seconds. By Monday, cautionary easterly flow develops and likely increases to or near advisory levels late Tuesday as the pressure gradient tightens across the Gulf. Seas should also build from southwest to northeast during that time. The persistence of tropical moisture keeps thunderstorms in the forecast as well.
FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 354 PM EDT Thu Jun 13 2024
Hot temperatures defined by triple-digit heat indices will be the main story through the weekend. High afternoon dispersions are forecast Friday and Sunday afternoon. Northeast winds gradually turn out of the southeast by Sunday with daily afternoon seabreezes inducing an onshore component from the coast. A prevailing east wind develops early next week. Tomorrow appears mostly dry, but isolated showers/thunderstorms are forecast along/south of the I-10 corridor Saturday with higher rain chances on Sunday.
HYDROLOGY
Issued at 354 PM EDT Thu Jun 13 2024
No significant flooding concerns are anticipated the next several days. Localized runoff issues are possible from strong and/or slow- moving thunderstorms, especially in urban, low-lying, and poor- drainage areas. Riverine prospects look good at this time with only the Suwannee River - Manatee Springs forecast to drop below action stage late tonight or early tomorrow morning.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Tallahassee 73 97 74 98 / 10 10 0 30 Panama City 75 94 77 92 / 10 20 0 20 Dothan 72 96 74 99 / 0 10 0 20 Albany 71 95 74 100 / 0 10 0 20 Valdosta 71 95 73 101 / 10 10 0 30 Cross City 71 96 72 98 / 20 40 10 40 Apalachicola 76 90 78 92 / 20 20 10 10
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...High Rip Current Risk until 5 AM EDT /4 AM CDT/ Friday for FLZ108-112-114-115.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 852 PM EDT Thu Jun 13 2024
New UPDATE
UPDATE
Issued at 850 PM EDT Thu Jun 13 2024
Lowered rain chances across the Southeast Florida Big Bend for tonight based on latest trends. Otherwise, the forecast is on track.
NEAR TERM
(Through Friday)
Issued at 354 PM EDT Thu Jun 13 2024
Upper level troughing will slowly give way to high pressure building in from the west. At the surface, high pressure builds which combined with the upper level trough, should lead to suppressed convection. Should any storms develop, we're expecting them to generally be south of I-10 and along the sea breeze. But confidence is low in that happening. Tomorrow will be the beginning of the warming trend. Highs will make it into the mid 90s for much the region, with feels like temperatures in the mid to upper 90s for SE AL and SW GA. FL counties' feels like temperatures will higher, in the upper 90s to low 90s.
SHORT TERM
(Friday night through Saturday night)
Issued at 354 PM EDT Thu Jun 13 2024
A strong mid-upper ridge building from the west ushers in hazardous heat conditions through the weekend. Inland air temperatures are forecast to peak around 100 degrees under mostly strong mid-June sunshine. These values are much warmer than normal for this time of year, but much less than the daily record maximum from the brutal June 15, 2011 heat. Factoring 60s & 70s dew points yield heat indices ranging from 104-110, which mostly meets our local advisory criteria. If trends continue or increase, then our first Heat Advisory could be issued as soon as Friday. Our FL counties would be the most likely targets. Isolated afternoon showers/thunderstorms are possible along the seabreeze zone with the best chances in the Eastern Big Bend. Muggy overnight lows in the 70s won't provide much relief.
LONG TERM
(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 354 PM EDT Thu Jun 13 2024
Hot weather continues into early next week as the aforementioned ridge pivots through the region. Sunday's high-temperature forecast is a touch lower than Saturday with widespread upper 90s (isolated 100) away from the immediate coast. Heat indices range from about 101-107. We gradually trend "cooler" each successive day in response to the center of a stout upper anti-cyclone shifting to the Mid- Atlantic states. Meanwhile, global models/ensembles continue to highlight solid potential for tropical development in the Bay of Campeche that would threaten Mexico. This synoptic pattern yields a brisk easterly flow regime with an increasing pressure gradient across the Gulf. A plethora of tropical moisture and enhanced Atlantic seabreeze supports daily chances for showers and thunderstorms, especially along/south of the FL state line. Low to mid 70s for minimum temperatures will be common through the long- term period.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 706 PM EDT Thu Jun 13 2024
VFR conditions are generally expected to prevail through the TAF period with light to moderate northeasterly winds. A bit of a sea breeze is expected at KECP Friday afternoon. While an isolated shower or thunderstorm may develop along the sea breeze Friday afternoon, confidence in when and where was too low to include in any of the TAF sites at this time as rain chances are currently less than 20 percent.
MARINE
Issued at 354 PM EDT Thu Jun 13 2024
Generally light winds are expected through the weekend outside of maritime convection with dominant pre-weekend wave periods of 6 to 7 seconds. By Monday, cautionary easterly flow develops and likely increases to or near advisory levels late Tuesday as the pressure gradient tightens across the Gulf. Seas should also build from southwest to northeast during that time. The persistence of tropical moisture keeps thunderstorms in the forecast as well.
FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 354 PM EDT Thu Jun 13 2024
Hot temperatures defined by triple-digit heat indices will be the main story through the weekend. High afternoon dispersions are forecast Friday and Sunday afternoon. Northeast winds gradually turn out of the southeast by Sunday with daily afternoon seabreezes inducing an onshore component from the coast. A prevailing east wind develops early next week. Tomorrow appears mostly dry, but isolated showers/thunderstorms are forecast along/south of the I-10 corridor Saturday with higher rain chances on Sunday.
HYDROLOGY
Issued at 354 PM EDT Thu Jun 13 2024
No significant flooding concerns are anticipated the next several days. Localized runoff issues are possible from strong and/or slow- moving thunderstorms, especially in urban, low-lying, and poor- drainage areas. Riverine prospects look good at this time with only the Suwannee River - Manatee Springs forecast to drop below action stage late tonight or early tomorrow morning.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Tallahassee 73 97 74 98 / 10 10 0 30 Panama City 75 94 77 92 / 10 20 0 20 Dothan 72 96 74 99 / 0 10 0 20 Albany 71 95 74 100 / 0 10 0 20 Valdosta 71 95 73 101 / 10 10 0 30 Cross City 71 96 72 98 / 20 40 10 40 Apalachicola 76 90 78 92 / 20 20 10 10
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...High Rip Current Risk until 5 AM EDT /4 AM CDT/ Friday for FLZ108-112-114-115.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
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