Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Cuthbert, GA
March 19, 2024 5:39 AM EDT (09:39 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 7:39 AM Sunset 7:48 PM Moonrise 1:53 PM Moonset 3:50 AM |
Area Discussion for - Tallahassee, FL
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FXUS62 KTAE 190757 AFDTAE
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 357 AM EDT Tue Mar 19 2024
New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY
NEAR TERM
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 220 AM EDT Tue Mar 19 2024
Across the mid levels, the main shortwave vorticity maxima that is digging equatorward through the southeast tonight, will be quickly rounding the base of the broader 500mb trough in place over the eastern conus today. As this shortwave exits off the eastern conus, northwesterly zonal flow across the 500mb will develop over the region, with the main trough axis sliding east over Bermuda today.
This will lead to slight 500 mb height rises across the region.
Although 500mb heights will be rising across the region, the shallow cooler continental airmass associated with the aforementioned mid level shortwave trough will be in place over the southeast will keep daytime high temperatures in the low to mid 60s today. This airmass is associated with a surface high pressure that is expected to settle into the central and northeastern Gulf coast states tonight.
The surface high pressure will play a pivotal role in the allowing overnight lows to fall into the low to mid 30s across the region.
With the surface high pressure expected to be nearly overhead, winds should remain calm or very light through the overnight and early morning hours. This will lead to an efficient radiational cooling night. As such, forecast lows were hedged towards the cooler end of the guidance. The only caveat to this will be the 250mb jet streak that is currently draped across northern Mexico. As this lifts north into the northern Gulf of Mexico due to ridge building across the Yucatan, the jet maxima is expected to be directly over the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend early Wednesday morning. This could introduce some high level cirrus clouds that may hinder low temperatures from bottoming out towards the early morning hours.
Overall, the biggest concern will be the potential for frost development once again across the CWA With calm winds and RHs in near 80 percent, the chance for frost is much higher if cooler near freezing temperatures in the mid to upper 30s do occur. Given the uncertainty, any issuance of a frost advisory will be held off until the next forecast package.
SHORT TERM
(Wednesday through Thursday night)
Issued at 220 AM EDT Tue Mar 19 2024
A warming and moistening trend is expected across the area through the short term period. Winds are forecast fairly light and variable on Wednesday with surface high pressure overhead before becoming southeasterly and increasing Thursday into Thursday night as an area of low pressure develops over Texas and begins to push eastward.
Rain chances may begin to increase across the Gulf Thursday evening before spreading inland through the night Thursday night as this system moves closer. At this point a few thunderstorms may be possible, especially near the coast, but severe weather is not expected at this time.
LONG TERM
(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 220 AM EDT Tue Mar 19 2024
Showers and a few thunderstorms will continue to push through the area on Friday ahead of a cold front. Severe weather doesn't seem likely with this system at this point. Drier and cooler air is forecast to push into the area in the wake of this front, but significant cooling is not expected. A warming and moistening trend is forecast to begin again early next week as the next system develops over the southern Plains.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 120 AM EDT Tue Mar 19 2024
Gusty northwest winds should continue to relax over the next few hours before becoming near calm out of the north through the remainder of the TAF period. All terminals will remain at VFR levels through the period with surface high pressure settling into the region.
MARINE
Issued at 220 AM EDT Tue Mar 19 2024
Advisory level conditions continue through this morning with winds and seas continuing to gradually decrease throughout today and tonight. Light winds and seas are expected Wednesday through Thursday with some increases to cautionary levels possible on Friday/Saturday as the next system bringing rain passes to our south. Easterly flow is likely as this system moves through.
FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 220 AM EDT Tue Mar 19 2024
Surface high pressure will settle into the region today, which will lead to light transport winds out of the north/northeast. Transport winds will remain around 10 mph. Minimum RH values will drop into the low to mid 20s across the region today as an extremely dry airmass associated with the aforementioned surface high pressure pushes into the area. This will lead to fuels quickly drying out today, especially in the wake of the windy day on Monday.
Dispersions will be fair today as mixing heights top out around 4000 ft, and transport winds remain light. Overall, there are no fire weather concerns other than the low RH values expected across the region.
HYDROLOGY
Issued at 220 AM EDT Tue Mar 19 2024
Area rivers and streams will continue to fall over the next several days with only the Apalachicola River remaining in flood.
The next chance for rain comes late Thursday into Friday with a widespread 0.5 to 1 inches of rainfall likely with isolated higher amounts possible. Widespread flooding is not expected, although isolated higher totals over the already saturated spots may create additional rises on the rivers.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Tallahassee 64 39 73 47 / 0 0 0 0 Panama City 63 45 68 50 / 0 0 0 0 Dothan 60 37 70 45 / 0 0 0 0 Albany 60 36 70 45 / 0 0 0 0 Valdosta 62 38 71 46 / 0 0 0 0 Cross City 65 37 71 44 / 0 0 0 0 Apalachicola 60 45 65 51 / 0 0 0 0
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...High Rip Current Risk until noon EDT /11 AM CDT/ today for FLZ112-114.
GA...Freeze Warning until 10 AM EDT this morning for GAZ120>124-142.
AL...Freeze Warning until 9 AM CDT this morning for ALZ065>067.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until noon EDT /11 AM CDT/ today for GMZ730- 750-752-755-765-770-772-775.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 357 AM EDT Tue Mar 19 2024
New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY
NEAR TERM
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 220 AM EDT Tue Mar 19 2024
Across the mid levels, the main shortwave vorticity maxima that is digging equatorward through the southeast tonight, will be quickly rounding the base of the broader 500mb trough in place over the eastern conus today. As this shortwave exits off the eastern conus, northwesterly zonal flow across the 500mb will develop over the region, with the main trough axis sliding east over Bermuda today.
This will lead to slight 500 mb height rises across the region.
Although 500mb heights will be rising across the region, the shallow cooler continental airmass associated with the aforementioned mid level shortwave trough will be in place over the southeast will keep daytime high temperatures in the low to mid 60s today. This airmass is associated with a surface high pressure that is expected to settle into the central and northeastern Gulf coast states tonight.
The surface high pressure will play a pivotal role in the allowing overnight lows to fall into the low to mid 30s across the region.
With the surface high pressure expected to be nearly overhead, winds should remain calm or very light through the overnight and early morning hours. This will lead to an efficient radiational cooling night. As such, forecast lows were hedged towards the cooler end of the guidance. The only caveat to this will be the 250mb jet streak that is currently draped across northern Mexico. As this lifts north into the northern Gulf of Mexico due to ridge building across the Yucatan, the jet maxima is expected to be directly over the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend early Wednesday morning. This could introduce some high level cirrus clouds that may hinder low temperatures from bottoming out towards the early morning hours.
Overall, the biggest concern will be the potential for frost development once again across the CWA With calm winds and RHs in near 80 percent, the chance for frost is much higher if cooler near freezing temperatures in the mid to upper 30s do occur. Given the uncertainty, any issuance of a frost advisory will be held off until the next forecast package.
SHORT TERM
(Wednesday through Thursday night)
Issued at 220 AM EDT Tue Mar 19 2024
A warming and moistening trend is expected across the area through the short term period. Winds are forecast fairly light and variable on Wednesday with surface high pressure overhead before becoming southeasterly and increasing Thursday into Thursday night as an area of low pressure develops over Texas and begins to push eastward.
Rain chances may begin to increase across the Gulf Thursday evening before spreading inland through the night Thursday night as this system moves closer. At this point a few thunderstorms may be possible, especially near the coast, but severe weather is not expected at this time.
LONG TERM
(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 220 AM EDT Tue Mar 19 2024
Showers and a few thunderstorms will continue to push through the area on Friday ahead of a cold front. Severe weather doesn't seem likely with this system at this point. Drier and cooler air is forecast to push into the area in the wake of this front, but significant cooling is not expected. A warming and moistening trend is forecast to begin again early next week as the next system develops over the southern Plains.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 120 AM EDT Tue Mar 19 2024
Gusty northwest winds should continue to relax over the next few hours before becoming near calm out of the north through the remainder of the TAF period. All terminals will remain at VFR levels through the period with surface high pressure settling into the region.
MARINE
Issued at 220 AM EDT Tue Mar 19 2024
Advisory level conditions continue through this morning with winds and seas continuing to gradually decrease throughout today and tonight. Light winds and seas are expected Wednesday through Thursday with some increases to cautionary levels possible on Friday/Saturday as the next system bringing rain passes to our south. Easterly flow is likely as this system moves through.
FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 220 AM EDT Tue Mar 19 2024
Surface high pressure will settle into the region today, which will lead to light transport winds out of the north/northeast. Transport winds will remain around 10 mph. Minimum RH values will drop into the low to mid 20s across the region today as an extremely dry airmass associated with the aforementioned surface high pressure pushes into the area. This will lead to fuels quickly drying out today, especially in the wake of the windy day on Monday.
Dispersions will be fair today as mixing heights top out around 4000 ft, and transport winds remain light. Overall, there are no fire weather concerns other than the low RH values expected across the region.
HYDROLOGY
Issued at 220 AM EDT Tue Mar 19 2024
Area rivers and streams will continue to fall over the next several days with only the Apalachicola River remaining in flood.
The next chance for rain comes late Thursday into Friday with a widespread 0.5 to 1 inches of rainfall likely with isolated higher amounts possible. Widespread flooding is not expected, although isolated higher totals over the already saturated spots may create additional rises on the rivers.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Tallahassee 64 39 73 47 / 0 0 0 0 Panama City 63 45 68 50 / 0 0 0 0 Dothan 60 37 70 45 / 0 0 0 0 Albany 60 36 70 45 / 0 0 0 0 Valdosta 62 38 71 46 / 0 0 0 0 Cross City 65 37 71 44 / 0 0 0 0 Apalachicola 60 45 65 51 / 0 0 0 0
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...High Rip Current Risk until noon EDT /11 AM CDT/ today for FLZ112-114.
GA...Freeze Warning until 10 AM EDT this morning for GAZ120>124-142.
AL...Freeze Warning until 9 AM CDT this morning for ALZ065>067.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until noon EDT /11 AM CDT/ today for GMZ730- 750-752-755-765-770-772-775.
Airport Reports
EDIT (hide/show)  Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
KEUF WEEDON FIELD,AL | 22 sm | 41 min | WNW 04 | 10 sm | Clear | 37°F | 21°F | 52% | 30.17 |
Fort Rucker, AL,
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