Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Sharon Springs, KS
June 6, 2024 5:27 PM CDT (22:27 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 6:19 AM Sunset 9:05 PM Moonrise 5:03 AM Moonset 8:59 PM |
FXUS63 KGLD 062015 AFDGLD
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Goodland KS 215 PM MDT Thu Jun 6 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Severe weather returns Friday. Main threat is hail up to golf ball size and wind gusts up to 70 MPH with a secondary threat of QLCS tornadoes.
- Active weather pattern continues Saturday through Monday with similar trend of storms moving in from the west during the afternoon/evening.
- Potential break in the active weather pattern mid week.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
Issued at 206 PM MDT Thu Jun 6 2024
Early this afternoon the sky was clear as dry northwest upper level flow persisted over the Central Plains. A ridge was centered over the Desert Southwest with a trough over the Great Lakes Region. At the surface a cooler air mass was over the forecast area with light easterly winds and a surface ridge over Nebraska.
For the rest of the day the winds will continue to be light but turn to the south as a surface high pressure over Nebraska drifts to the east.
Tonight light south winds are expected. A weak upper level short wave trough will move over Southwest Kansas during the evening into the overnight hours. The strongest forcing with this trough will be over the TX/OK panhandles. There may be some isolated storm activity over the forecast area. However confidence is just high enough for these storms to occur to include them in the forecast.
Friday will be warmer than today due to the WAA from the south winds. During the day a dry line will setup near the CO/KS border.
By mid afternoon an upper level short wave trough will approach the forecast area from the west. There is very little to no instability over East Central CO, so am not anticipating much for thunderstorm coverage. Due to the high cloud bases, strong winds may occur with any storms that form. As the upper level short wave trough approaches the dry line, storm coverage may increase as well as storm intensity. Models indicate a line of storms should form as the outflow boundaries form the initial storms merge together. The mean flow is to the east-southeast so anticipate the storm activity to head that direction through the afternoon and evening.
Friday night storm coverage should increase before mid evening over the eastern third of the forecast area, with lesser coverage to the west where the lift is not as strong and the environment is more stable.
Regarding threats initial, lone storms are supportive of hail up to golfball size and wind gusts up to 70 MPH. However as storms merge together the threat will shift to more of damaging wind gusts than hail. A secondary threat will be the potential for QLCS tornadoes to occur over the eastern half of the forecast area. Latest data shows the 0-3km winds are orientated in a similar direction to the mean wind. The shear will be 30-40 kts, more than enough to support brief tornado development for any part of the line that is perpendicular to the 0-3 km shear. The tornado threat will be more of a concern during the evening when the low level winds increase.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
Issued at 206 PM MDT Thu Jun 6 2024
Saturday through Thursday will have chances for storms continuing.
The setup is very similar to what has occurred Sunday and what will occur Friday; an upper level short wave trough moving in from the west leading to storm activity spreading across the forecast area from west to east.
Saturday the strongest storm activity should be confined to the southwest quadrant of the forecast area where the instability will be. A cold front will be draped over the southwest part of the forecast area. Behind the front will be little to no instability.
Sunday and Monday the cooler air mass looks to shift some to the northeast, allowing instability to move over the western half of the forecast area. More stable air continues to the east.
Tuesday through Thursday the upper level ridge currently over the west shifts toward and then over the forecast area. There are some weaker troughs which move through. However model consensus has little to no rainfall chances for the forecast area. Wouldn't be surprised if there ends up being minimal rainfall chances during this timeframe given the weak upper level troughs moving through.
Thursday night models have the strongest upper level short wave trough of the week moving over the forecast area. Quite a bit can change between now and then. However this is something to be aware of as this trough passage would provide the best chance for severe weather, if the track/timing hold.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
Issued at 1130 AM MDT Thu Jun 6 2024
VFR conditions forecast for the TAFs. Light winds today will become from the south this evening. LLWS may occur overnight toward 12z for both sites. Southerly winds become breezy toward 18z.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Goodland KS 215 PM MDT Thu Jun 6 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Severe weather returns Friday. Main threat is hail up to golf ball size and wind gusts up to 70 MPH with a secondary threat of QLCS tornadoes.
- Active weather pattern continues Saturday through Monday with similar trend of storms moving in from the west during the afternoon/evening.
- Potential break in the active weather pattern mid week.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
Issued at 206 PM MDT Thu Jun 6 2024
Early this afternoon the sky was clear as dry northwest upper level flow persisted over the Central Plains. A ridge was centered over the Desert Southwest with a trough over the Great Lakes Region. At the surface a cooler air mass was over the forecast area with light easterly winds and a surface ridge over Nebraska.
For the rest of the day the winds will continue to be light but turn to the south as a surface high pressure over Nebraska drifts to the east.
Tonight light south winds are expected. A weak upper level short wave trough will move over Southwest Kansas during the evening into the overnight hours. The strongest forcing with this trough will be over the TX/OK panhandles. There may be some isolated storm activity over the forecast area. However confidence is just high enough for these storms to occur to include them in the forecast.
Friday will be warmer than today due to the WAA from the south winds. During the day a dry line will setup near the CO/KS border.
By mid afternoon an upper level short wave trough will approach the forecast area from the west. There is very little to no instability over East Central CO, so am not anticipating much for thunderstorm coverage. Due to the high cloud bases, strong winds may occur with any storms that form. As the upper level short wave trough approaches the dry line, storm coverage may increase as well as storm intensity. Models indicate a line of storms should form as the outflow boundaries form the initial storms merge together. The mean flow is to the east-southeast so anticipate the storm activity to head that direction through the afternoon and evening.
Friday night storm coverage should increase before mid evening over the eastern third of the forecast area, with lesser coverage to the west where the lift is not as strong and the environment is more stable.
Regarding threats initial, lone storms are supportive of hail up to golfball size and wind gusts up to 70 MPH. However as storms merge together the threat will shift to more of damaging wind gusts than hail. A secondary threat will be the potential for QLCS tornadoes to occur over the eastern half of the forecast area. Latest data shows the 0-3km winds are orientated in a similar direction to the mean wind. The shear will be 30-40 kts, more than enough to support brief tornado development for any part of the line that is perpendicular to the 0-3 km shear. The tornado threat will be more of a concern during the evening when the low level winds increase.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
Issued at 206 PM MDT Thu Jun 6 2024
Saturday through Thursday will have chances for storms continuing.
The setup is very similar to what has occurred Sunday and what will occur Friday; an upper level short wave trough moving in from the west leading to storm activity spreading across the forecast area from west to east.
Saturday the strongest storm activity should be confined to the southwest quadrant of the forecast area where the instability will be. A cold front will be draped over the southwest part of the forecast area. Behind the front will be little to no instability.
Sunday and Monday the cooler air mass looks to shift some to the northeast, allowing instability to move over the western half of the forecast area. More stable air continues to the east.
Tuesday through Thursday the upper level ridge currently over the west shifts toward and then over the forecast area. There are some weaker troughs which move through. However model consensus has little to no rainfall chances for the forecast area. Wouldn't be surprised if there ends up being minimal rainfall chances during this timeframe given the weak upper level troughs moving through.
Thursday night models have the strongest upper level short wave trough of the week moving over the forecast area. Quite a bit can change between now and then. However this is something to be aware of as this trough passage would provide the best chance for severe weather, if the track/timing hold.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
Issued at 1130 AM MDT Thu Jun 6 2024
VFR conditions forecast for the TAFs. Light winds today will become from the south this evening. LLWS may occur overnight toward 12z for both sites. Southerly winds become breezy toward 18z.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.
Goodland, KS,
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