Sunrise 6:29 AM   Sunset 8:12 PM Moonrise 5:19 AM   Moonset 7:44 PM

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GMZ042 Hawk Channel From Ocean Reef To Craig Key Out To The Reef- Hawk Channel From Craig Key To West End Of Seven Mile Bridge Out To The Reef- Hawk Channel From West End Of Seven Mile Bridge To Halfmoon Shoal Out To The Reef- 1032 Am Edt Thu Jun 6 2024
This afternoon - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet, subsiding to around 1 foot. NEarshore waters smooth to a light chop. Isolated showers and Thunderstorms. Tonight - Southeast to south winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas around 1 foot. NEarshore waters smooth to a light chop. Scattered showers and isolated Thunderstorms. Friday through Saturday - South to southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas around 1 foot. NEarshore waters smooth to a light chop. Scattered showers and isolated Thunderstorms. Saturday night - South winds near 5 knots. Seas 1 foot or less. NEarshore waters smooth. Isolated showers and Thunderstorms. Sunday - South to southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas around 1 foot. NEarshore waters smooth to a light chop. Scattered showers and isolated Thunderstorms. Sunday night and Monday - South to southwest winds near 10 knots. Seas around 1 foot. NEarshore waters a light chop. Scattered showers and isolated Thunderstorms. Monday night - Southeast to south winds increasing to 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. NEarshore waters becoming a light to moderate chop. Scattered showers and isolated Thunderstorms.

GMZ005 Synopsis For Keys Coastal Waters From Ocean Reef To Dry Tortugas 1032 Am Edt Thu Jun 6 2024
Synopsis - Weak high pressure over the western atlantic will slide further offshore through the end of the week as a frontal boundary stalls off the eastern seaboard and over north florida. This will result in gentle southeast breezes across the keys coastal waters today, becoming light to gentle from the south to southwest from Friday through the weekend and into early next week.
the approximate shoreward edge of the gulf stream as of june 4, 2024 - .
57 nm south of dry tortugas light - .on loggerhead key. 41 nm south of cosgrove shoal light - .off the marquesas keys. 38 nm south of sand key light - .off key west. 37 nm south of looe key - .off big pine key. 33 nm south of sombrero key light - .off marathon. 7 nm south of alligator reef light - .off islamorada. 5 nm south of molasses reef light - .off key largo.
gulf stream information courtesy of the national weather service in key west.

FXUS62 KMFL 061823 AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 223 PM EDT Thu Jun 6 2024

New LONG TERM

SHORT TERM
(Rest of today through Friday)
Issued at 122 PM EDT Thu Jun 6 2024

Key Messages:

- Shower and storm chances increase today, with some strong to severe storms possible through this evening.

- Hot and humid conditions forecast today and throughout the weekend, with peak heat indices in the 103 to 110 range.

A potentially active afternoon and evening is on tap for portions of South Florida as today's round of sea-breeze-focused showers and thunderstorms may have a bit more juice to them, thanks to an approaching mid-level shortwave. This feature will bring 500 mb temps down to around -8 to -9 C, which will combine with steepening mid-level lapse rates near 6.5-7 C/km and MLCAPE over 2500 J/kg to provide an environment that could support strong to severe storms capable of producing large hail (up to 1.75" in diameter) and damaging wind gusts, in addition to frequent lightning and heavy downpours. While strong to severe storms may be possible across much of South Florida, they are most likely to occur across the northern and eastern areas (Lake O and East Coast metro). SPC has this area highlighted in a Slight Risk (level 2 of 5), with surrounding areas in a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5).
Showers and storms are anticipated to initiate in the early afternoon along the sea breeze boundaries and propagate inland over the Interior and towards Lake O by late afternoon and evening. The approaching shortwave and associated surface low over the Southeast US has also started to turn surface winds more southerly, ushering in a warmer and more humid airmass. This will lead to hot and humid conditions, with high temps in the low to mid 90s across the area, and heat indices ranging from 103-108.

For Friday, the aforementioned trough continues migrating eastward, while an associated sfc frontal boundary pushes southward across the SE CONUS. This will begin veering winds across the area to the southwest, continuing to advect warmer air in from the south. This will help in keeping the current trend of abnormally warm temperatures, with afternoon highs in the mid to upper 90s. Heat indices will likewise climb into the 105-110 range for most areas, but scattered showers and thunderstorms could provide some relief wherever they form. Conditions will not be as favorable for severe thunderstorms, but we could still see a few strong storms capable of producing small hail, gusty winds, frequent lightning, and heavy downpours.

LONG TERM
(Friday night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 212 PM EDT Thu Jun 6 2024

To open the weekend, a mid-level trough will advect eastward towards the Florida peninsula with its attendant surface boundary approaching northern Florida before stalling out. This will lead to a south-southwesterly surface wind regime across the area. Sea breezes will be the primary driver for ascent and thunderstorm development through the weekend, although with enhanced southerly flow, temperatures aloft will begin to warm to the -4 to -6 degree range, so this should limit stronger storm potential. PoPs will be around 50-60% for most locations this weekend and convection should trend more towards the east coast compared to the west coast under light west- southwest flow. High temperatures could reach the mid to upper 90s each day, with areas in the interior potentially topping out in the triple digits. Heat indices will climb into the mid 100s for most areas under southwest flow, and thus there is an increasing potential for Heat Advisory or even Excessive Heat Warning issuance for portions of the area.

For early to mid next week, guidance starts to vary more drastically. Overall, most guidance is hinting at the potential for a disturbance to form in the Caribbean or GOM which would have the potential to impact the region at some point next week.
Local weather across South Florida will depend heavily on the exact track and development of this disturbance. Model guidance continues to vary drastically, so there is no real consensus yet regarding potential impacts for the area. For now, keeping POPs capped at 70% for each afternoon through the middle of next week, although these may need to be nudged upward (or even downward) as guidance comes into better agreement regarding the disturbance. At the very least, a disturbance to our west in the Gulf would only reinforce our already southerly flow, so rain chances will likely remain higher next week regardless as enhanced moisture filters across the area from the south. Stay tuned for more through the week regarding this potential.

AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 122 PM EDT Thu Jun 6 2024

Showers and/or thunderstorms may bring brief periods of sub-VFR cigs/vis to all terminals through the evening, but otherwise VFR conditions for the 18Z TAF period. SE winds increase 10 kt this afternoon will become light and variable later in the evening.
Only exception will be APF where a westerly flow develops with afternoon Gulf breezes. Another round of showers and thunderstorms will be possible on Friday afternoon, especially for the Atlantic terminals.

MARINE
Issued at 122 PM EDT Thu Jun 6 2024

Generally benign boating conditions should prevail across the coastal waters through the weekend, with winds in the 5-10kt range. Only exception will be in the vicinity of any thunderstorm that forms, which will bring brief periods of rough seas and gusty winds. Seas will remain in the 2 to 3 feet range in the Atlantic waters, and 2 feet or less in the Gulf waters.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Miami 79 91 79 92 / 30 60 40 60 West Kendall 75 93 76 94 / 30 60 40 60 Opa-Locka 78 93 78 94 / 30 60 40 60 Homestead 77 91 77 91 / 20 60 40 70 Fort Lauderdale 80 91 79 91 / 30 60 40 60 N Ft Lauderdale 79 92 78 93 / 20 60 40 60 Pembroke Pines 79 95 79 96 / 30 60 40 60 West Palm Beach 77 94 76 93 / 20 60 40 60 Boca Raton 78 93 77 94 / 20 60 40 60 Naples 77 92 79 92 / 30 60 20 60 However, with it being near the end of the forecast period, uncertainty is very high. Some solutions highlight potential for the disturbance to impact parts of South Florida while others show no impactful weather. Therefore, this potential system needs to be taken with a grain of salt for now, but if it continues to show signs of materializing in future guidance and has a chance to pose threats to South Florida, then potential impacts will be described.



MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.

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Molasses Reef
Click for Map
Thu -- 02:50 AM EDT     0.05 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:18 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 06:31 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:40 AM EDT     New Moon
Thu -- 08:47 AM EDT     2.37 feet High Tide
Thu -- 03:03 PM EDT     -0.46 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 08:09 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 08:44 PM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 09:34 PM EDT     2.60 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Molasses Reef, Florida, Tide feet

Long Key
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:46 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 03:32 AM EDT     -1.19 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 06:20 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 06:33 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 06:34 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 08:40 AM EDT     New Moon
Thu -- 09:18 AM EDT     0.94 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 11:59 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 03:21 PM EDT     -1.72 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 06:45 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 08:10 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 08:45 PM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 10:09 PM EDT     1.60 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Long Key, east of drawbridge, Florida Current, knots

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