Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Tavernier, FL
March 28, 2024 12:26 PM EDT (16:26 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 7:15 AM Sunset 7:38 PM Moonrise 9:47 PM Moonset 8:03 AM |
GMZ042 Hawk Channel From Ocean Reef To Craig Key Out To The Reef- Hawk Channel From Craig Key To West End Of Seven Mile Bridge Out To The Reef- Hawk Channel From West End Of Seven Mile Bridge To Halfmoon Shoal Out To The Reef- 1041 Am Edt Thu Mar 28 2024
.small craft advisory in effect - .
This afternoon - South to southwest winds near 20 knots, becoming west to northwest 20 to 25 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet, except building to 3 to 5 feet west of cosgrove shoal light. NEarshore waters rough, becoming very rough. Scattered showers and isolated Thunderstorms, then isolated showers this afternoon. Winds and seas higher in and around Thunderstorms.
Tonight - Northwest to north winds near 25 knots, becoming north to northeast 20 to 25 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet, except 5 to 7 feet west of cosgrove shoal light. NEarshore waters extremely rough, becoming very rough.
Friday - Northeast winds near 20 knots, decreasing to 15 to 20 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet, except 4 to 6 feet west of cosgrove shoal light. NEarshore waters rough, becoming choppy.
Friday night - Northeast to east winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. NEarshore waters choppy.
Saturday - East winds near 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet, except 3 to 4 feet west of cosgrove shoal light. NEarshore waters a moderate chop.
Saturday night - East winds decreasing to 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. NEarshore waters becoming a light to moderate chop.
Sunday - East to southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. NEarshore waters a light to moderate chop.
Sunday night - East to southeast winds near 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. NEarshore waters a moderate chop.
Monday - East to southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. NEarshore waters a light to moderate chop.
Monday night - East to southeast winds near 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. NEarshore waters a moderate chop.
GMZ005 Synopsis For Keys Coastal Waters From Ocean Reef To Dry Tortugas 1041 Am Edt Thu Mar 28 2024
Synopsis - Strong to near gale breezes out of the south to southwest veer to the west and northwest throughout the day as a cold front is exiting the forecast area. The worst of the Thunderstorm activity is out of the marine area, but lingering showers and isolated Thunderstorms remain in the cold fronts wake. Moisture tapers off into the afternoon hours, but the strong to near gale breezes remain in place. As a result, the small craft advisory is in effect until tomorrow morning. Breezes diminish and veer to an easterly direction over the course of tomorrow afternoon and evening.
the approximate shoreward edge of the gulf stream is currently unavailable.
the approximate shoreward edge of the gulf stream is currently unavailable.
Area Discussion for - Miami-South Florida, FL
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FXUS62 KMFL 281443 AFDMFL
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 1043 AM EDT Thu Mar 28 2024
New UPDATE
UPDATE
Issued at 1037 AM EDT Thu Mar 28 2024
A few tweaks were made to the forecast this morning as we continue to anticipate the passage of a weak frontal boundary over the area. Latest surface analysis and satellite imagery places this front over Central Florida at present, with a line of isolated to scattered showers moving ahead of it. This line is expected to make its way across our region later this afternoon, with a few sprinkles already starting to pop-up over the Lake Okeechobee region. Timing of the line was the main driver for changes to the forecast, as activity has been a bit slower in making its way down that previously forecast. As of this update, the bulk of the shower and storm activity should be moving over the area early to mid afternoon, and should clear the peninsula sometime around sunset.
Behind the front, seasonal temperatures return overnight and tomorrow with lows in the 50s and 60s and highs tomorrow in the mid to upper 70s. Generally southwesterly winds will remain breezy, with gusts up to 30 kts possible as the front approaches.
Tomorrow, a more northerly to northeasterly wind flow will develop, with gusts up to 20 kts still possible.
SHORT TERM
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 248 AM EDT Thu Mar 28 2024
A cold front will be moving across the region today with increasing shower and thunderstorm activity through the morning hours. Radar currently shows the weakening remnants from an MCS moving across the eastern Gulf of Mexico towards the peninsula and the Florida Keys.
Behind this convective activity is the surface front edging forward with a mid-level trough trailing it through the eastern Gulf. While the best support for convection will remain well north of the region, showers and thunderstorms will be possible with the front moving through this morning and afternoon. Thunderstorm chances will be a tad lower than overall rain chances but high enough to warrant mention in the forecast.
As the trough axis clears through later today and begins to lift north, the surface boundary will clear into the Bahamas by tonight allowing drier air to enter the region. While this is a cold front, there is little in the way of cold, continental air behind the boundary. Therefore, South Florida will cool a few degrees compared to previous days but still range from the upper 70s to the lower 80s on Friday afternoon under sunny skies. Overnight lows tonight into Friday morning will drop a few degrees as well with some mid 50s sneaking into inland Southwest Florida and 60s elsewhere along the coasts.
LONG TERM
(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 248 AM EDT Thu Mar 28 2024
High pressure builds across the area on Friday, leading to warm and dry conditions through the extended period. The next mentionable POPs come into play during the middle of next week as the next frontal boundary pushes down the Florida peninsula on Wednesday.
A warming trend will begin Saturday as the surface high settles in and high temperatures rise into the 80s by Sunday. Temperatures continue to rise through week as afternoon highs may reach the low 90s across much of the region by Wednesday. Overnight lows will warm as well, but with mostly clear skies, much of the region will still cool into the upper 50s (interior/Lake O) and 60s elsewhere.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 131 AM EDT Thu Mar 28 2024
Deteriorating conditions ahead of the approaching cold front.
Sub-VFR possible early this morning with a rain shield moving into Southwest Florida. The main convective activity will move through later in this morning into the afternoon with the front clearing through by the evening and the wind shifting out of the W to NW and then NNW. Short-fused AMDs will likely be needed for sub-VFR TEMPOs including for bouts of IFR/LIFR.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 131 AM EDT Thu Mar 28 2024
Deteriorating conditions ahead of the approaching cold front.
Sub-VFR possible early this morning with a rain shield moving into Southwest Florida. The main convective activity will move through later in this morning into the afternoon with the front clearing through by the evening and the wind shifting out of the W to NW and then NNW. Short-fused AMDs will likely be needed for sub-VFR TEMPOs including for bouts of IFR/LIFR.
MARINE
Issued at 248 AM EDT Thu Mar 28 2024
Hazardous marine conditions remain across the local waters with a moderate to fresh southeasterly to southerly breeze. In the wake of the frontal passage today, hazardous conditions will return across all local waters with potential gusts to gale force and seas of 7 to 10 feet.
BEACHES
Issued at 248 AM EDT Thu Mar 28 2024
A high risk of rip currents remains in effect for all South Florida beaches today as a cold front moves across the region. The Atlantic beaches high risk will likely persist through much of the remainder of this week. The Gulf beaches will see their rip current risk diminish to close out the week.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Miami 84 63 78 64 / 30 0 10 10 West Kendall 85 59 80 60 / 30 0 10 0 Opa-Locka 86 63 79 62 / 30 0 10 10 Homestead 84 61 78 63 / 30 0 10 0 Fort Lauderdale 85 63 77 64 / 30 0 10 10 N Ft Lauderdale 85 64 77 64 / 30 0 10 0 Pembroke Pines 86 62 79 62 / 30 0 10 10 West Palm Beach 84 63 76 62 / 30 0 0 0 Boca Raton 85 63 78 64 / 40 0 10 0 Naples 79 60 80 59 / 40 0 0 0
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Friday morning for FLZ069.
High Rip Current Risk through Friday evening for FLZ168-172-173.
High Surf Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for FLZ168.
AM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Friday for AMZ610.
Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 8 PM EDT Friday for AMZ630.
Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Friday for AMZ650-651-670- 671.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Friday for GMZ656-657-676.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 1043 AM EDT Thu Mar 28 2024
New UPDATE
UPDATE
Issued at 1037 AM EDT Thu Mar 28 2024
A few tweaks were made to the forecast this morning as we continue to anticipate the passage of a weak frontal boundary over the area. Latest surface analysis and satellite imagery places this front over Central Florida at present, with a line of isolated to scattered showers moving ahead of it. This line is expected to make its way across our region later this afternoon, with a few sprinkles already starting to pop-up over the Lake Okeechobee region. Timing of the line was the main driver for changes to the forecast, as activity has been a bit slower in making its way down that previously forecast. As of this update, the bulk of the shower and storm activity should be moving over the area early to mid afternoon, and should clear the peninsula sometime around sunset.
Behind the front, seasonal temperatures return overnight and tomorrow with lows in the 50s and 60s and highs tomorrow in the mid to upper 70s. Generally southwesterly winds will remain breezy, with gusts up to 30 kts possible as the front approaches.
Tomorrow, a more northerly to northeasterly wind flow will develop, with gusts up to 20 kts still possible.
SHORT TERM
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 248 AM EDT Thu Mar 28 2024
A cold front will be moving across the region today with increasing shower and thunderstorm activity through the morning hours. Radar currently shows the weakening remnants from an MCS moving across the eastern Gulf of Mexico towards the peninsula and the Florida Keys.
Behind this convective activity is the surface front edging forward with a mid-level trough trailing it through the eastern Gulf. While the best support for convection will remain well north of the region, showers and thunderstorms will be possible with the front moving through this morning and afternoon. Thunderstorm chances will be a tad lower than overall rain chances but high enough to warrant mention in the forecast.
As the trough axis clears through later today and begins to lift north, the surface boundary will clear into the Bahamas by tonight allowing drier air to enter the region. While this is a cold front, there is little in the way of cold, continental air behind the boundary. Therefore, South Florida will cool a few degrees compared to previous days but still range from the upper 70s to the lower 80s on Friday afternoon under sunny skies. Overnight lows tonight into Friday morning will drop a few degrees as well with some mid 50s sneaking into inland Southwest Florida and 60s elsewhere along the coasts.
LONG TERM
(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 248 AM EDT Thu Mar 28 2024
High pressure builds across the area on Friday, leading to warm and dry conditions through the extended period. The next mentionable POPs come into play during the middle of next week as the next frontal boundary pushes down the Florida peninsula on Wednesday.
A warming trend will begin Saturday as the surface high settles in and high temperatures rise into the 80s by Sunday. Temperatures continue to rise through week as afternoon highs may reach the low 90s across much of the region by Wednesday. Overnight lows will warm as well, but with mostly clear skies, much of the region will still cool into the upper 50s (interior/Lake O) and 60s elsewhere.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 131 AM EDT Thu Mar 28 2024
Deteriorating conditions ahead of the approaching cold front.
Sub-VFR possible early this morning with a rain shield moving into Southwest Florida. The main convective activity will move through later in this morning into the afternoon with the front clearing through by the evening and the wind shifting out of the W to NW and then NNW. Short-fused AMDs will likely be needed for sub-VFR TEMPOs including for bouts of IFR/LIFR.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 131 AM EDT Thu Mar 28 2024
Deteriorating conditions ahead of the approaching cold front.
Sub-VFR possible early this morning with a rain shield moving into Southwest Florida. The main convective activity will move through later in this morning into the afternoon with the front clearing through by the evening and the wind shifting out of the W to NW and then NNW. Short-fused AMDs will likely be needed for sub-VFR TEMPOs including for bouts of IFR/LIFR.
MARINE
Issued at 248 AM EDT Thu Mar 28 2024
Hazardous marine conditions remain across the local waters with a moderate to fresh southeasterly to southerly breeze. In the wake of the frontal passage today, hazardous conditions will return across all local waters with potential gusts to gale force and seas of 7 to 10 feet.
BEACHES
Issued at 248 AM EDT Thu Mar 28 2024
A high risk of rip currents remains in effect for all South Florida beaches today as a cold front moves across the region. The Atlantic beaches high risk will likely persist through much of the remainder of this week. The Gulf beaches will see their rip current risk diminish to close out the week.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Miami 84 63 78 64 / 30 0 10 10 West Kendall 85 59 80 60 / 30 0 10 0 Opa-Locka 86 63 79 62 / 30 0 10 10 Homestead 84 61 78 63 / 30 0 10 0 Fort Lauderdale 85 63 77 64 / 30 0 10 10 N Ft Lauderdale 85 64 77 64 / 30 0 10 0 Pembroke Pines 86 62 79 62 / 30 0 10 10 West Palm Beach 84 63 76 62 / 30 0 0 0 Boca Raton 85 63 78 64 / 40 0 10 0 Naples 79 60 80 59 / 40 0 0 0
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Friday morning for FLZ069.
High Rip Current Risk through Friday evening for FLZ168-172-173.
High Surf Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for FLZ168.
AM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Friday for AMZ610.
Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 8 PM EDT Friday for AMZ630.
Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Friday for AMZ650-651-670- 671.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Friday for GMZ656-657-676.
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Airport Reports
EDIT (hide/show)  Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.Molasses Reef
Click for Map
Thu -- 05:02 AM EDT 0.20 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:16 AM EDT Sunrise
Thu -- 09:02 AM EDT Moonset
Thu -- 11:00 AM EDT 2.09 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:12 PM EDT -0.09 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:36 PM EDT Sunset
Thu -- 10:47 PM EDT Moonrise
Thu -- 11:37 PM EDT 2.20 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Thu -- 05:02 AM EDT 0.20 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:16 AM EDT Sunrise
Thu -- 09:02 AM EDT Moonset
Thu -- 11:00 AM EDT 2.09 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:12 PM EDT -0.09 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:36 PM EDT Sunset
Thu -- 10:47 PM EDT Moonrise
Thu -- 11:37 PM EDT 2.20 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Molasses Reef, Florida, Tide feet
12 am |
2.1 |
1 am |
1.7 |
2 am |
1.2 |
3 am |
0.7 |
4 am |
0.3 |
5 am |
0.2 |
6 am |
0.3 |
7 am |
0.7 |
8 am |
1.1 |
9 am |
1.6 |
10 am |
2 |
11 am |
2.1 |
12 pm |
2 |
1 pm |
1.6 |
2 pm |
1.1 |
3 pm |
0.5 |
4 pm |
0.1 |
5 pm |
-0.1 |
6 pm |
-0 |
7 pm |
0.3 |
8 pm |
0.8 |
9 pm |
1.4 |
10 pm |
1.9 |
11 pm |
2.2 |
Long Key
Click for Map
Thu -- 02:31 AM EDT -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 05:19 AM EDT -1.22 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 07:18 AM EDT Sunrise
Thu -- 08:30 AM EDT 0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 09:04 AM EDT Moonset
Thu -- 11:06 AM EDT 0.96 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 02:01 PM EDT -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 05:23 PM EDT -1.43 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 07:37 PM EDT Sunset
Thu -- 08:36 PM EDT 0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 10:48 PM EDT Moonrise
Thu -- 11:37 PM EDT 1.32 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Thu -- 02:31 AM EDT -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 05:19 AM EDT -1.22 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 07:18 AM EDT Sunrise
Thu -- 08:30 AM EDT 0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 09:04 AM EDT Moonset
Thu -- 11:06 AM EDT 0.96 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 02:01 PM EDT -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 05:23 PM EDT -1.43 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 07:37 PM EDT Sunset
Thu -- 08:36 PM EDT 0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 10:48 PM EDT Moonrise
Thu -- 11:37 PM EDT 1.32 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Long Key, east of drawbridge, Florida Current, knots
12 am |
1.2 |
1 am |
0.9 |
2 am |
0.3 |
3 am |
-0.3 |
4 am |
-0.9 |
5 am |
-1.2 |
6 am |
-1.1 |
7 am |
-0.8 |
8 am |
-0.3 |
9 am |
0.3 |
10 am |
0.8 |
11 am |
1 |
12 pm |
0.8 |
1 pm |
0.5 |
2 pm |
0 |
3 pm |
-0.5 |
4 pm |
-1.1 |
5 pm |
-1.4 |
6 pm |
-1.4 |
7 pm |
-1 |
8 pm |
-0.4 |
9 pm |
0.3 |
10 pm |
0.9 |
11 pm |
1.3 |
Miami, FL,
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