Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Pelahatchie, MS
June 1, 2024 2:24 AM CDT (07:24 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 5:52 AM Sunset 8:03 PM Moonrise 2:29 AM Moonset 3:01 PM |
FXUS64 KJAN 010603 AFDJAN
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jackson MS 103 AM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024
New AVIATION
MESOSCALE UPDATE
Issued at 932 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024
Departing shortwave trough axis aloft has carried best rain chances east of the I-55 corridor late this evening, and convection managed to use up almost all of the instability left across the forecast area. Light to occasionally moderate rainfall will continue into early tomorrow morning. Some of the guidance do show the possibility for some warm advection showers to re- develop around 3-5 a.m. This could be due to an increase in warm, moist advection in the lower levels overnight, but it's uncertain at this time whether there will be the needed shortwave impulse to provide lift. Additionally, drier air should be working in some from the west overnight in the wake of earlier rainfall.
Will carry the mention of thunderstorms overnight, but have discontinued advertising Marginal Risk outlook for severe storms through the remainder of the night. Took the opportunity to updated POPs and weather timing into the afternoon and evening tomorrow, as this latest system will take some time to recover from a perspective of diurnal thunderstorm activity. /NF/
DISCUSSION
Issued at 225 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024
Tonight through Saturday:
Periods of showers and storms will continue through Saturday. A few storms could be strong to severe with damaging winds and hail being the main threats. An isolated tornado cannot be ruled out but it seems as if that threat is diminishing and the damaging wind threat and locally heavy rainfall will be the main issues with these waves of showers and storms. We still maintain a marginal to slight risk of severe weather over portions of the forecast area through tonight.
Saturday night through Thursday:
Active weather including the potential for severe weather and flash flooding will be possible over most of the period. By Saturday evening the shortwave trough axis will be east of Mississippi taking the most vigorous convection with it. Our region will still have west to northwest flow aloft and there is at least a couple models hinting at an MCS moving back into our southwest during the evening. This would bring a threat of damaging wind gusts and perhaps some hail. Locally heavy rain would also likely accompany the system. During the period Friday night through Sunday morning there will be the potential for two to four inches of rain in a short amount of time. This would result in localized flash flooding. Sunday wl still have a warm moist airmass in place. Daytime heating looks to combine with another subtle shortwave to enhance convection over the region leading to scattered to numerous coverage going into Sunday evening. This convection is expected to have a distinct diurnal trend to it and will wain with the loss of daytime heating. We will still have a warm moist airmass over our region come Monday.
Monday yet another shortwave trough is expected to move across the region during the heat of the day and lead to at least scattered coverage of mainly afternoon and early evening storms. Tuesday convection is expected to be less and more confined to our northern zones as mid level ridging looks to strengthen some over the southern portions of our CWA There remain difference in the models with Wednesday into Thursday but consensus suggests a northern stream disturbance will be strong enough to help send a cold front into our region that would lead to a greater coverage of convection over our CWA Wednesday afternoon through Thursday.
/22/
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 103 AM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024
A mixture of VFR and MVFR conditions will occur across all several sites to start off the TAF period as local radar scans show light showers tracking northeast towards Tennessee. Ceilings will start to drop to MVFR/IFR conditions a little after 07Z Saturday for most sites. Some sites could see ceilings drop down to LIFR status starting around 11Z Saturday. Adjustments will be necessary as conditions start to worsen. Ceilings will begin to lift to VFR status between 15Z to 18Z Saturday as the stratus deck starts to lift. A brief period of low level wind shear will be possible across a few TAF sites (JAN, GWO, & HKS) between 08Z and 09Z Saturday. Southerly winds will occur across central MS through 12Z Saturday before shifting to the west by 15Z Saturday. /CR/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Jackson 85 69 84 70 / 60 30 50 10 Meridian 83 67 84 69 / 80 30 60 20 Vicksburg 86 70 87 72 / 30 20 50 10 Hattiesburg 85 70 87 70 / 80 40 60 10 Natchez 86 69 87 71 / 40 30 50 10 Greenville 86 70 85 72 / 20 20 40 10 Greenwood 84 70 85 70 / 40 30 40 20
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jackson MS 103 AM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024
New AVIATION
MESOSCALE UPDATE
Issued at 932 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024
Departing shortwave trough axis aloft has carried best rain chances east of the I-55 corridor late this evening, and convection managed to use up almost all of the instability left across the forecast area. Light to occasionally moderate rainfall will continue into early tomorrow morning. Some of the guidance do show the possibility for some warm advection showers to re- develop around 3-5 a.m. This could be due to an increase in warm, moist advection in the lower levels overnight, but it's uncertain at this time whether there will be the needed shortwave impulse to provide lift. Additionally, drier air should be working in some from the west overnight in the wake of earlier rainfall.
Will carry the mention of thunderstorms overnight, but have discontinued advertising Marginal Risk outlook for severe storms through the remainder of the night. Took the opportunity to updated POPs and weather timing into the afternoon and evening tomorrow, as this latest system will take some time to recover from a perspective of diurnal thunderstorm activity. /NF/
DISCUSSION
Issued at 225 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024
Tonight through Saturday:
Periods of showers and storms will continue through Saturday. A few storms could be strong to severe with damaging winds and hail being the main threats. An isolated tornado cannot be ruled out but it seems as if that threat is diminishing and the damaging wind threat and locally heavy rainfall will be the main issues with these waves of showers and storms. We still maintain a marginal to slight risk of severe weather over portions of the forecast area through tonight.
Saturday night through Thursday:
Active weather including the potential for severe weather and flash flooding will be possible over most of the period. By Saturday evening the shortwave trough axis will be east of Mississippi taking the most vigorous convection with it. Our region will still have west to northwest flow aloft and there is at least a couple models hinting at an MCS moving back into our southwest during the evening. This would bring a threat of damaging wind gusts and perhaps some hail. Locally heavy rain would also likely accompany the system. During the period Friday night through Sunday morning there will be the potential for two to four inches of rain in a short amount of time. This would result in localized flash flooding. Sunday wl still have a warm moist airmass in place. Daytime heating looks to combine with another subtle shortwave to enhance convection over the region leading to scattered to numerous coverage going into Sunday evening. This convection is expected to have a distinct diurnal trend to it and will wain with the loss of daytime heating. We will still have a warm moist airmass over our region come Monday.
Monday yet another shortwave trough is expected to move across the region during the heat of the day and lead to at least scattered coverage of mainly afternoon and early evening storms. Tuesday convection is expected to be less and more confined to our northern zones as mid level ridging looks to strengthen some over the southern portions of our CWA There remain difference in the models with Wednesday into Thursday but consensus suggests a northern stream disturbance will be strong enough to help send a cold front into our region that would lead to a greater coverage of convection over our CWA Wednesday afternoon through Thursday.
/22/
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 103 AM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024
A mixture of VFR and MVFR conditions will occur across all several sites to start off the TAF period as local radar scans show light showers tracking northeast towards Tennessee. Ceilings will start to drop to MVFR/IFR conditions a little after 07Z Saturday for most sites. Some sites could see ceilings drop down to LIFR status starting around 11Z Saturday. Adjustments will be necessary as conditions start to worsen. Ceilings will begin to lift to VFR status between 15Z to 18Z Saturday as the stratus deck starts to lift. A brief period of low level wind shear will be possible across a few TAF sites (JAN, GWO, & HKS) between 08Z and 09Z Saturday. Southerly winds will occur across central MS through 12Z Saturday before shifting to the west by 15Z Saturday. /CR/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Jackson 85 69 84 70 / 60 30 50 10 Meridian 83 67 84 69 / 80 30 60 20 Vicksburg 86 70 87 72 / 30 20 50 10 Hattiesburg 85 70 87 70 / 80 40 60 10 Natchez 86 69 87 71 / 40 30 50 10 Greenville 86 70 85 72 / 20 20 40 10 Greenwood 84 70 85 70 / 40 30 40 20
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KJAN JACKSONMEDGAR WILEY EVERS INTL,MS | 13 sm | 12 min | calm | 10 sm | Overcast | Lt Rain | 72°F | 70°F | 94% | 29.95 |
| KHKS HAWKINS FIELD,MS | 19 sm | 31 min | SE 03 | 10 sm | Partly Cloudy | 72°F | 70°F | 94% | 29.96 |
Jackson/Brandon, MS,
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