Sunrise 6:15 AM   Sunset 7:39 PM Moonrise 11:42 PM   Moonset 8:27 AM

  Print   HELP   Reset   Save   Recall

FXUS64 KJAN 270527 AAC AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Jackson MS 1227 AM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

New AVIATION

MESOSCALE UPDATE
Issued at 853 PM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

Rest of Tonight...Strong high pressure at the surface and ridging aloft wedged into the region from the east, will remain in control of the weather across the CWA tonight. While convection moving across South Central Arkansas and Northwest Louisiana towards far western portions of the forecast area this evening, it is weakening in the process. Despite this, some scattered showers, along with an isolated thunderstorm or two, will be possible across the Delta region overnight. The remainder of the CWA will however remain dry.

High clouds will continue to spread east across the region tonight as well. Some low stratus is also expected to develop across areas mainly along and south of the Interstate 20 corridor, with some patchy fog not out of the question across the Pine Belt where winds will be lighter early Saturday morning. Elsewhere, a tight pressure gradient across the region will yield continued breezy conditions overnight with southerly winds around 10 mph expected, along with a few gusts between 15-20 mph possible, especially across the Delta region.

Overall, the current forecast is in good shape. Other than some minor adjustments to hourly elements of the forecast based on current trends, no major changes will be made on this evening's update. /19/

DISCUSSION
Issued at 159 PM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

Tonight through Sunday...Not much change has been made for the short term period. Warm and dry conditions are expected tonight as we head into the weekend. The ridge axis will continue to slowly shift east across the forecast area tonight as we start to see an increase in southerly flow. This will allow for a few scattered showers and storms to occur over northwest portions of the area.
Expect overnight low to dip into the upper 60s across our CWA as clouds build from the west. Heading into tomorrow, weather conditions will be quiet as the upper-ridge continues to dominant our forecast. Mostly cloudy sky conditions are expected across our forecast area with afternoon highs peaking in the mid to upper 80s. Global guidance continues to highlight a pressure gradient of around 5 to 7 mb over the area tomorrow which will result in sustained winds around 15 to 20 mph with gusts around 30-35 mph.
No changes have been made to the limited wind graphic for the weekend.

Sunday Night through Friday...Dry conditions will occur heading into Sunday evening due to general ridging aloft. Primary focus for the long term period will be on Monday as storm chances will begin to increase around this timeframe due southerly flow aloft building up moisture from the Gulf ahead of a surface cold front.
A small threat for strong to severe storms will be possible. Deep layer shear around 40 to 50 kts should aid in the development of updrafts. Damaging wind gusts with a possible MCS, mainly for areas along and north of the Hwy 82 corridor will be possible with some of these storms, however there is some uncertainty in regards to where the system will line up with the shear and cold pool.

Furthermore, several of these storms will have the capability of producing locally heavy rainfall at times thanks to deep layer moisture circulating around the retreating ridge and moving along a huge fetch of warm tropical/subtropical Atlantic waters. In addition, PWATs in excessive of 1.5 inches and deep warm cloud layer will result in efficient rainfall rates along with some minor river flooding possible, thus a flash flood threat appears possible. Some uncertainty remains in regards with the timing of the system and where the cold pool develops. We will be keeping an close eye on this system. If needed, we will be providing updates to any severe/flash flood outlooks as we closer to this event.

By Tuesday evening, a stronger ridge will start to build over the Mississippi Valley Region as the aforementioned cold front shifts east out of the forecast area giving us a short break from the rain.
Isolated showers and storms will make a brief return to the area on Wednesday and Thursday with quiet conditions expected on Friday.
Confidence in severe at this time is low, but can't rule out some organized convection, especially later in the week. /CR/

AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1225 AM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

A cluster of TS is ongoing across parts of northeast LA, southeast AR, and northwest MS, but will mostly move northward out of the area within the next few hours. Elsewhere, patchy MVFR stratus existed across portions of central/south MS and LA. The stratus deck will likely expand through daybreak, then diminish by mid to late morning with VFR conditions returning. S/SE winds will be gusty at times, especially during the daytime later today though a few stronger gusts may also occur overnight. /DL/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Jackson 85 64 84 67 / 0 0 10 10 Meridian 85 64 84 62 / 10 0 10 0 Vicksburg 87 65 86 68 / 0 0 10 10 Hattiesburg 85 64 84 65 / 0 0 10 0 Natchez 86 66 86 68 / 0 0 10 10 Greenville 85 65 84 68 / 10 0 20 30 Greenwood 85 66 84 67 / 0 0 10 10

JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.

Full Color Weather Map

Link to Loop


Other links: GEOS-West     Contential US     Full GOES-East

Jackson/Brandon, MS,