Sunrise 5:57 AM   Sunset 8:02 PM Moonrise 9:46 AM   Moonset 11:25 PM

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GMZ530 Lake Pontchartrain And Lake Maurepas- 359 Am Cdt Tue Jun 11 2024
Today - Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming east late. Waves around 2 feet this morning, then 1 foot or less. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms this afternoon. Tonight - Southeast winds around 5 knots, becoming northeast after midnight. Waves 1 foot or less. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening. Wednesday - East winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Wednesday night - East winds around 5 knots, becoming northeast after midnight. Waves 1 foot or less. Thursday - Northeast winds around 5 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Thursday night - Southeast winds around 5 knots, becoming west around 5 knots after midnight. Waves 1 foot or less. Friday - Northeast winds around 5 knots, becoming east in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less. Friday night - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming west after midnight. Waves 1 foot or less. Saturday - Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming east in the afternoon. Waves around 2 feet. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Saturday night - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves around 2 feet. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

GMZ500 359 Am Cdt Tue Jun 11 2024
Synopsis for pascagoula to atchafalaya river out 60 nm -
a weak front will continue to slowly push off the coast. The boundary will stall offshore today into midweek bringing a period of variable to northerly winds at 5-10 kt to the area. Once the front washes out, winds become predominantly easterly situated south of a high pressure system. Locally higher winds and seas will be possible with any storms that develop. The pressure gradient will gradually build with easterly winds of 10-15 knots by the end of the week.

FXUS64 KLIX 110447 AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 1147 PM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024

New AVIATION

SHORT TERM
(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 336 PM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024

Upper trough extended from Maine to the Lower Ohio River Valley this afternoon, with upper lows over New Mexico and off the Baja California coast. At the surface, a frontal boundary was drifting southward, and may be fairly close to the Interstate 10/12 corridor. Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms dotted the area, with somewhat better areal coverage over the lower portions of the coastal parishes. Storms have really struggled to strengthen, with very few even reaching the -20C level, which was around 26,000 feet this morning. Wind fields below 600 mb were rather weak, and while we can see outflows apparent on radar, haven't seen any ground truth wind reports much above 20 mph. Away from convection, temperatures were generally in the upper 80s to mid 90s at mid afternoon. Dew points were in the low to mid 70s near and south of the frontal boundary, but seeing dew points fall into the upper 60s across southwest Mississippi.

Expect most or all of the weak convection currently on radar to dissipate as we lose surface heating this evening. The upper trough to our northeast should help the surface boundary off the coast. Drier air, defined in this case as sub 70 dew points, may not make it too far south of Lake Pontchartrain.

Considering the slightly better moisture south of the lake, we may see isolated convection there tomorrow afternoon as we reach convective temperatures, but with little shear and sub optimal lapse rates, threat of severe at this time appears to be pretty low. Again tomorrow, storms should weaken as we lose surface heating.

Won't depart significantly from the NBM deterministic temperature forecast, which is pretty much a compromise on minimum temperatures, and on the warmer end for highs.

LONG TERM
(Wednesday through Sunday night)
Issued at 336 PM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024

Frontal boundary remains just offshore for the end of the workweek, with the airmass gradually drying out. By the time we get to Thursday/Friday, precipitable water values fall to about the 10th percentile climatologically, around 1.10 inches. With weak offshore flow, that should limit convection significantly.
Can't rule out one or two storms along sea breeze boundaries, but that is probably pushing things. Would not be surprised at all to see high temperatures in the mid and upper 90s (at least) across much of the area Thursday into Saturday, with very little inland penetration of sea breezes. NBM numbers are trending on the warmer end, and may even need to bump them up a degree or two in later packages. Highs on Sunday will be very dependent on precipitation trends, and don't see that as a confident target of opportunity to diverge from the NBM solution.

The center of an upper ridge is forecast to transit Interstate 40 to our north over the weekend. This places the local area under easterly mid and low level flow, but the global models are struggling with the details of how that may impact the local area.
The GFS solution would paint a fairly wet Sunday for the Mississippi coast and eastern portions of southeast Louisiana, while the ECMWF keeps that area comparatively dry, and better rainfall to the west of the local area. Don't have any real issues with the NBM PoPs of 40-60 percent on Sunday, but confidence in precipitation amounts is rather low.

AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1144 PM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024

Outside of the stray thunderstorm near BTR causing some MVFR conditions there, the rest of the terminals should be VFR for most of the forecast cycle, along with BTR once the storm dissipates. A similar setup as today might happen for tomorrow where a few isolated/scattered storms could cause ceiling/visibility reductions but confidence in any specific location seeing this is low. -BL

MARINE
Issued at 336 PM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024

Low level flow should become offshore overnight tonight, and remain primarily offshore until at least late Friday. Convection should be the only real concern over the next 48 hours or so, and that threat is fairly limited. Once onshore flow commences over the weekend, we may start building swell. Depending on which global solution becomes preferred, at least some potential for higher than normal tide levels. The relatively good news in that case is that astronomical tide levels will be decreasing this weekend.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MCB 68 89 65 89 / 10 10 0 10 BTR 74 93 71 93 / 10 20 0 20 ASD 73 93 70 93 / 20 20 10 20 MSY 78 92 77 92 / 10 40 10 30 GPT 74 92 72 92 / 20 10 10 10 PQL 71 95 69 94 / 20 10 10 10

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.

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Paris Road Bridge
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Tue -- 05:58 AM CDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 06:45 AM CDT     -0.13 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 10:42 AM CDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 06:56 PM CDT     1.21 feet High Tide
Tue -- 08:01 PM CDT     Sunset
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Paris Road Bridge, Mississippi River Delta, Louisiana, Tide feet

Manilla
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Tue -- 04:00 AM CDT     -0.12 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:59 AM CDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 10:43 AM CDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 03:35 PM CDT     1.09 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:59 PM CDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Manilla, Mississippi River Delta, Louisiana, Tide feet

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