Sunrise 5:53 AM   Sunset 8:40 PM Moonrise 1:49 AM   Moonset 2:24 PM

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FXUS63 KEAX 010452 AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 1152 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Showers and embedded thunderstorms are expected to expand east this evening across southern and central Missouri, with more scattered activity farther north.

- Rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected Sunday night through Tuesday night. Additional heavy rain are possible with these storms.

DISCUSSION
Issued at 344 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024

Looking at the big picture, satellite imagery this afternoon shows a ridge axis off to our east with a big trough across Canada dipping into the Northern Plains. This would have left Kansas and Missouri with a locally zonal flow across the Plains States if a large MCV had not developed overnight.

The forecast hasn't changed much in the past 12 hours. The MCV, that overnight convection developed to our west, is still slowly spinning its way east along the Kansas/Oklahoma border. This has left eastern Kansas and western Missouri with cloudy skies and scattered showers through the day thus far thanks to the feed of moisture from the Gulf. Model output, and simple persistence, indicates that the MCV will continue east overnight with widespread showers and maybe some embedded thunderstorm activity across southern, central, and northeast Missouri overnight.
Additional rainfall totals might bring some minor flooding, but that is not really expected at this time as totals will likely be less than half and inch.

Saturday...should be dry after the MCV moves far enough east tomorrow morning. This will allow temperatures to rebound a bit for the start of the weekend with highs both Saturday and Sunday around 80.

Sunday into next work week...will see the arrival of our next chance of rain as a shortwave moves through what will be a zonal flow across much of the Nation. Expect the chance for rain to return Sunday and persist through the start of the work week, with rain possible Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday. Otherwise, even with the expected rain, and cloud cover that comes with it, currently we expect to see temperatures ranging through the 80s.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
Issued at 1120 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024

Rainfall has been shifting out of the area with MVFR ceilings gradually moving in. Ceilings are expected to fall into IFR by morning, especially at the southern TAF sites. IXD may even fall into LIFR, but confidence is not high at this time. After sunrise expect graduall improvement to MVFR with VFR returning by late morning/early afternoon.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...None.
KS...None.

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Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO,