Sunrise 5:37 AM   Sunset 8:52 PM Moonrise 1:49 AM   Moonset 2:30 PM

  Print   HELP   Reset   Save   Recall  New

This is a Weather Statement Zone, please check the Date to see if it has expired
PZZ310 Coos bay bar- coastal waters from cape blanco or to pt. St. George ca out 10 nm- waters from cape blanco or to pt. St. George ca from 10 to 60 nm- 134 pm pdt Wed may 29 2013 a long-duration moderate to strong north wind event is expected to last from this weekend into early next week. Winds should begin to increase Friday into Saturday - .peaking Sunday with storm force wind gusts possible. Very steep and hazardous waves will accompany this wind event and mariners should prepare for dangerous conditions at sea. The strongest winds and highest seas will occur beyond 5 nm from shore.

PZZ300 804 Pm Pdt Fri May 31 2024
Synopsis for the southern oregon coastal waters - Gusty north winds and steep to very steep and hazardous seas will continue through this evening. Conditions improve tonight as a weak upper trough passes through the region resulting in easing winds that become westerly and lowering seas. A more impactful front is expected Sunday into Monday, likely bringing the return of conditions hazardous to small craft with increasing south winds and an increasing west swell. Expect a period of moderate to heavy rain Sunday afternoon into Monday morning.

FXUS66 KMFR 010547 AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 1047 PM PDT Fri May 31 2024

.Updated AVIATION & MARINE Discussions...

AVIATION
01/06Z TAFs...VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period for most locations. The exception being along the coast where IFR ceilings have developed north of Cape Blanco and into the Coquille Basin. These lower conditions will prevail into Saturday morning before improving to VFR. A weak trough will pass through the region on Saturday, bringing an increase in mid and high level clouds, but VFR is expected to prevail. Expect some gusty afternoon breezes on Saturday, especially for inland terminals. /BR-y

MARINE
Updated 730 PM Friday, May 31, 2024...Gusty north winds with steep to very steep and hazardous seas will continue through this evening. Conditions will improve tonight as a weak upper trough passes through region, resulting in easing winds that become westerly and lowering seas.

A more impactful front will arrive on Sunday morning, bringing gusty south winds and an increasing west swell. Conditions hazardous to small craft are expected to return by Sunday afternoon to areas north of Cape Blanco due to increasing winds and swell.
Additionally, a period of moderate to heavy rainfall is expected Sunday afternoon into Monday morning.

Hazardous conditions are likely to continue through the week, though due to varying weather patterns. An upper level trough will remain to the northwest, and this will send another, heavier, longer period swell (9 to 12 ft at 12 to 14 seconds) into the waters on Wednesday.
Meanwhile, the thermal trough will likely return, bringing the return of strong north winds and steep to very steep wind driven seas for the latter half of next week. /BR-y

PREV DISCUSSION
/Issued 229 PM PDT Fri May 31 2024/

SHORT TERM...Other than some high clouds, it's wall to wall sunshine out there this afternoon beneath high pressure. A few pop up cumulus could develop in SE sections (Modoc) into this evening, but that's about it. Inland areas will end up generally about 10 degrees above normal for highs this afternoon. Offshore flow led to a nice, warm afternoon in Brookings with the temperature there peaking at 79 degrees at 1 pm, but the rest of the coast is being cooled by marine air with temperatures in the low to mid 60s.
Unless something drastically changes from now until midnight (it won't), we'll close out the month of May here in Medford on a streak of 25 consecutive days without precipitation. Despite that long dry period, we'll still end up only a little below normal for the month due to the wetness during the first week.

For most areas, this evening will be a near perfect evening for outdoor activities with the waning of the daytime warmth and any breezes easing to just gentle winds. Overnight lows will be near to several degrees above normal. This translates to upper 40s/low 50s west of the Cascades and generally in the 40s over the east side. Marine layer low clouds/fog probably form or push into Coos and far western Douglas counties.

On Saturday, an upper trough will swing through. While there will be an uptick in mid/high cloudiness inland, moisture is limited, so we're not anticipating any precipitation. Overall, expect 5-10 degrees of cooling compared to today. The trough will serve to deepen the marine layer, so expect more in the way of low cloudiness along the coast (10% or less chance of drizzle along the immediate coast). More marine influence also means it won't be as warm in Brookings (low to mid 60s) as it is today. With an increasing west-east pressure gradient, gusty west-northwest breezes (25-30 mph) will pick up in the afternoon just about everywhere, but especially for the inland valleys and over the east side. Another mostly dry, comfortable night is expected Saturday night.

Attention shifts to a stronger, moist Pacific front that will approach the PacNW on Sunday, then move through our area Sunday night into Monday. By June standards, this front has significant moisture transport values of 500-750 kg/ms (IVT), which will send rain onto the coast Sunday. Precipitation will gradually move south and eastward across the CWA then, but rain will take pretty much all day to get to Medford/Ashland/Grants Pass. Wetting rainfall is then likely for most areas from the Cascades westward Sunday night into early Monday. Amounts will peter out though as the front loses its punch moving east of the Cascades. Model Extreme Forecast Index (EFI) of QPF from the ECMWF shows values approaching 1 in the Cascades to our north, but also healthy values along our coast and into the Cascades. This is a strong indication that the front will be considerable for its rain production for this time of year, but the rain in our area will largely be beneficial and put the brakes on the start to fire season (at least over the west side). Storm total rain amounts of 1-2 inches will be common along the coast, perhaps even up to 3 inches in some of the coast ranges. 0.50-1.00 inch of rain is expected in the rest of Douglas County and into portions of the Illinois Valley. Here in the Rogue Valley, most likely amounts will range from 0.20-0.40 of an inch. Over the east side and from the Shasta Valley eastward, amounts will be mostly 0.10 of an inch or less with little or nothing in southern Modoc County. -Spilde

LONG TERM...Monday afternoon (6/03) through Thursday night(6/06)...

Post frontal showers will persist through Monday afternoon, but will quickly diminish through the evening as strong ridging builds into the region behind the departing system. The model suites in previous runs have depicted the ridge well in control of the area, with steadily warming temperatures and no chances for rain throughout the extended term.

The recent runs, however, have started to show a more complicated pattern, with an area of swift zonal flow, mainly lying just to our north, with ridging to the south and troughing to the north. This would keep our area mostly dry and hot, just as previously thought, although maybe not quite as warm. Also, with the zonal flow in the vicinity, a stray impulse could brush by southern Oregon, producing some light rain chances along the coast and the upper Umpqua Basin through Tuesday night. That being said, the most likely scenario remains dry.

Wednesday and Thursday, the ridge builds north in response to a deepening trough upstream over the eastern Pacific. Depending on how far east that trough is, the ridge axis will remain overhead keeping the area dry and very warm for this time of year (about 10 to 15 degrees above normal), or just to our east, allowing for some southwesterly flow aloft. This southwesterly flow solution is also very warm, but typically produces a chance for convection, particularly over northern California and along and east of the Cascades in Oregon, so there is a low chance, around 15%, for afternoon thunderstorms somewhere in the area mid to late next week.
Details on the timing and exact locations will need to wait until the models better resolve the situation. -BPN

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR
CA
None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Gale Warning until 11 PM PDT this evening for PZZ356-376.

Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM PDT this evening for PZZ350-370- 376.

toggle option: (graph/table)

Entrance
Click for Map
Sat -- 02:37 AM PDT     1.50 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 02:48 AM PDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 05:37 AM PDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:27 AM PDT     4.91 feet High Tide
Sat -- 02:18 PM PDT     0.90 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 03:30 PM PDT     Moonset
Sat -- 08:52 PM PDT     Sunset
Sat -- 09:03 PM PDT     6.80 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Entrance, Umpqua River, Oregon, Tide feet

Reedsport
Click for Map
Sat -- 02:48 AM PDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 03:58 AM PDT     1.25 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 05:37 AM PDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 09:33 AM PDT     4.77 feet High Tide
Sat -- 03:30 PM PDT     Moonset
Sat -- 03:39 PM PDT     0.74 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 08:51 PM PDT     Sunset
Sat -- 10:09 PM PDT     6.59 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Reedsport, Umpqua River, Oregon, Tide feet

Full Color Weather Map

Link to Loop


Other links: GEOS-West     Contential US     Full GOES-East

Medford, OR,