Sunrise 6:12 AM   Sunset 8:16 PM Moonrise 11:51 PM   Moonset 7:05 AM

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PZZ350 Coastal Waters From Florence To Cape Blanco Or Out 10 Nm- 212 Am Pdt Sat Apr 27 2024
.small craft advisory in effect from 9 am pdt this morning through this evening - .
Today - SW wind 5 to 10 kt - .backing to S 10 to 15 kt in the morning, then - .rising to 20 to 25 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves nw 2 ft at 5 seconds - .shifting to the sw 4 ft at 4 seconds in the afternoon. SWell W 6 to 7 ft at 8 seconds - .subsiding to W 5 ft at 8 seconds and W 3 ft at 14 seconds in the afternoon. Showers.Tonight - S wind 20 to 25 kt - .becoming sw 10 to 20 kt in the late evening and early morning, then - .easing to 10 kt early in the morning. Wind waves sw 4 ft at 6 seconds. SWell W 4 to 5 ft at 8 seconds and W 3 to 6 ft at 12 seconds. Showers.Sun - SW wind 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves sw 2 ft at 5 seconds. SWell W 6 to 8 ft at 12 seconds. Chance of showers through the day. Sun night - SW wind 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves nw 2 ft at 4 seconds. SWell W 7 to 8 ft at 11 seconds. Showers likely. Mon - W wind 5 to 15 kt. Wind waves nw 2 ft at 5 seconds. SWell nw 7 ft at 11 seconds. Rain likely. Mon night - W wind 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves nw 2 ft at 5 seconds. SWell nw 7 to 8 ft at 11 seconds. Chance of rain. Tue - W wind 10 kt - .veering to N after midnight. Wind waves nw 2 ft at 5 seconds - .shifting to the sw 2 ft at 4 seconds after midnight. SWell nw 9 ft at 10 seconds. Wed - NE wind 5 kt - .backing to N 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves sw 3 ft at 4 seconds. SWell nw 5 to 6 ft at 9 seconds.

PZZ300 212 Am Pdt Sat Apr 27 2024
Synopsis for the southern oregon coastal waters - A weak front will move into the waters this morning with moderate south winds. The front will move inland this afternoon with winds shifting to the west and diminishing. However, seas will remain elevated enough for small craft conditions to continue until late this evening. Weak high pressure builds southwest of the waters Sunday, then another front will move into the waters Monday.

FXUS66 KMFR 270947 AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 247 AM PDT Sat Apr 27 2024

DISCUSSION
Satellite imagery this morning shows plenty of cloud cover along and west of the Cascades. Clouds east of the Cascades are more scattered and focused along the higher terrain. Radar is fairly quiet this morning, though a few showers can be noted along the Cascades and into the Douglas County Foothills. Latest observations indicate the showers are fairly light with reports only showing a hundredth or two in these locations over the last hour or so. While isolated showers are likely to continue in these locations through the early morning hours, most locations will remain dry through the morning.

After this brief lull in shower activity this morning, a shortwave arrives late this morning and afternoon, bringing another round of light precipitation. This will be a quick moving and weakening wave, but it will be the leading edge of sustained zonal onshore flow that will persist into early next week. This pattern is known to produce ongoing light showers with most precipitation remaining confined to areas along and west of the Cascades and the best chances for accumulating precipitation expected along the coast, Cascades and north of the Rogue-Umpqua Divide.

On Sunday, onshore flow will contribute to a 30-60% chance of showers north and west of the Umpqua Divide with PoPs diminishing quickly south and east of there. It looks like a mainly dry, at least partly sunny day elsewhere (including here in the Rogue Valley) with gusty breezes (25-35 mph) developing in the afternoon.
The next upper air disturbance will move through Sunday night into Monday. Once again, the main forcing for precipitation will be to our north, but there's a high probability of showers (50-70%) along the coast and over to the Cascades. Again, precip chances drop off quickly to the south and east of the mountains. We can't rule out a shower or two around the Rogue Valley/Medford area during that time period, but most of the time will be rain free. Snow levels Sunday night could dip to around 3500 feet or so, but any light snow accumulations (2-4") should be confined to the Cascade mountains from around Crater Lake northward. This system exits to the east Monday evening, followed by another upper disturbance that will swing through northern Oregon on Tuesday. Again, we'll be on the southern fringes of this system, so PoPs remain highest across the north and west, lowest across the south and east.

Overall, temperatures during this period will be near to below normal. Widespread frost/freezing conditions west of the Cascades appear unlikely at the moment, but a colder night or two is possible, especially if skies clear and remain clear all night. Best chance right now for frost is Monday night/Tue morning with the usual suspects (Illinois/Applegate Valley/Grants Pass areas) having the highest probability (30-60%). Recent guidance even shows a slight chance (15-25%) for Freeze conditions in these areas.

There remains quite a bit of uncertainty regarding mid-late next week. Recent deterministic guidance wants to dry things out across the area Tuesday night into Wednesday with a return of higher heights by Thu/Fri. Some multi-model members have also gone in this direction, which would potentially bring a substantial warm up late in the week. This is being reflected in recent blended guidance as well with some lowering of PoPs in the Wed-Fri time frame. However, there are still several members that fall into a cluster of solutions (~30%) that bring another upper trough into the area maintaining a cooler, wetter regime, similar to what is expected this weekend into early this week. At this point, confidence in any of these solutions is low, so we prefer to keep the official forecast closer to the NBM, which results in modest PoPs (generally 20-40%) area wide during the period with temperatures trending higher as well. -Spilde/BR-y

AVIATION
27/06Z TAFs...The night is starting with generally VFR levels across northern California and southern Oregon. Some ceilings along the Oregon coast are occasionally down to MVFR levels, and may fluctuate overnight. There's a 10% chance of visibilities dropping to MVFR levels in the Umpqua Valley early Saturday morning if some patchy fog develops, but the confidence in that is not high enough to enter into the TAFs.

A weak front will bring more showers to the area late Saturday morning, with the Oregon coast and the Cascades having the best chances for rain through the TAF period. Inland areas west of the Cascades should see periodic showers, while little activity beyond some gusty winds is expected east of the Cascades. -TAD

MARINE
Updated 245 AM Saturday, April 27, 2024...A weak front will approach the waters this morning with increasing south winds.
The front will move inland this afternoon and winds will shift to the west and diminish. However, seas will remain elevated into late this evening. The combination of south winds and seas will result in Small craft conditions this morning into late this evening for most of the waters. Thus, a Small Craft Advisory has been issued.

Calmer conditions are likely overnight tonight into Sunday, then another front will move into the waters Monday. The pattern will remain active next week, but were not anticipating any headlines into at least the middle of next week. -Petrucelli

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...None.

CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 11 PM PDT this evening for PZZ350-356-370-376.

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Entrance
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Sat -- 02:14 AM PDT     6.69 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:13 AM PDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:05 AM PDT     Moonset
Sat -- 09:22 AM PDT     -0.74 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 04:20 PM PDT     4.88 feet High Tide
Sat -- 08:15 PM PDT     Sunset
Sat -- 08:50 PM PDT     3.19 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Entrance, Umpqua River, Oregon, Tide feet

Gardiner
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Sat -- 03:05 AM PDT     6.49 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:13 AM PDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:04 AM PDT     Moonset
Sat -- 10:28 AM PDT     -0.62 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 05:11 PM PDT     4.74 feet High Tide
Sat -- 08:15 PM PDT     Sunset
Sat -- 09:56 PM PDT     2.65 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Gardiner, Umpqua River, Oregon, Tide feet

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