Sunrise 6:13 AM   Sunset 8:50 PM Moonrise 2:03 AM   Moonset 2:40 PM

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FXUS65 KSLC 012156 AFDSLC

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT 356 PM MDT Sat Jun 1 2024

SYNOPSIS
High-based convection will bring a threat of dry microbursts to northern Utah this afternoon/evening. An increasingly hot and dry airmass will build in to southern Utah this weekend, while temperatures will be moderated to some degree by a series of weak cold fronts across the north. Strong high pressure will bring the hottest temperatures of the season to the Beehive State Wednesday into Thursday.

SHORT TERM
Starting with the large-scale pattern, a shallow shortwave trough is currently moving slowly across SE-OR and southern ID, likely to continue moving eastward while brushing through northern Utah. In the lower levels, a weak, quasi- stationary boundary continues to sit zonally-oriented across northern Utah and southwest Wyoming. Along this boundary, expect scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms to continue developing through the afternoon. Currently, radar reveals these showers over the Uinta Mtns down to the Book Cliffs, as well as areas near Wendover and even isolated showers starting to push off the Oquirrh Mtns. The SPC Mesoanalysis suggests 500-1000 J/kg of CAPE is present across these areas, and combined with 30-40kts of bulk shear, showers are more likely to persist after they come off of higher terrain. The main threat with these showers is gusty and erratic outflow winds from dry microbursts given dry low levels and steep lapse rates. Hi-res guidance highlights southwest WY particularly for strong gusts exceeding 50 mph (20% chance).

One detail to note is the presence of strong surface convergence over the Salt Lake Valley between the lake breeze and synoptically-driven southerly flow, which may result in persistent storms developing over the valley this afternoon...and thus a continued threat of gusty outflow winds and lightning.

Across southern Utah, hot and dry conditions will persist, with breezy southwesterly winds this afternoon decreasing after sunset.
Temperatures will remain around 5 degrees above normal.

Heading into tomorrow (Sunday), the aforementioned shortwave trough will push the weak boundary through northern and central UT as a cold front. Thus, temperatures will cool by a few degrees across these areas. Additionally, expect drier conditions aside from a chance for some isolated showers and thunderstorms across the Uinta Mtns in the afternoon.

.LONG TERM (After 12Z Monday), Issued 407 AM MDT...
A grazing shortwave trough will drag a rather dry cold front into Utah early next week. Models and ensembles are in good agreement of a strong ridge building into the western U.S. later in the week.

Zonal flow throughout southwest Wyoming and Utah will strengthen Monday as a longwave trough digs into the PacNW. The trough will track almost directly east, from Washington into Idaho and Montana. A weak, relatively dry cold front will track into Utah during the day Monday, bringing isolated to scattered rain showers to southwest Wyoming and northern Utah. Precipitation totals will generally be 0.1" or less, with the highest totals in southwest Wyoming and near the Idaho border. Winds will be enhanced throughout southwest Wyoming and Utah, strongest for places with downslope winds from the west, like the Uinta Basin and Castle Country, where gusts will exceed 30 mph.

Tuesday will be the coolest day of the week, with a dry northwest flow. Gusty west to northwest winds are likely for southwest Wyoming and much of Utah, with peak gusts for the same locations as Monday.

There is strong model agreement on a powerful ridge in the eastern Pacific tracking inland Tuesday and Wednesday. For southwest Wyoming and Utah, Thursday and Friday will likely be the warmest days of the week. Highs and lows will be 10-20F warmer than normal for those days. High temperatures will get into in the 90s for most valleys, including the urban corridor of northern Utah, and 100s for lower Washington County. Record high temperatures are generally 3-5F warmer than forecast high temperatures each day.

AVIATION
KSLC...Northwest winds will prevail into this evening.
Gusty and erratic outflow winds are possible (30-50% chance) from showers and thunderstorms moving near the terminal this evening, mainly 23Z-02Z. Winds may become light and variable for a period after any outflow winds overnight, likely trending back to light south drainage winds through early Sunday morning. Northerly gradient should then support an earlier shift back to the NW by mid to late Sunday morning.

REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING
Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms over northern Utah and southwest Wyoming this afternoon through early evening will mainly have bases at/above 10kft, and will be capable of gusty and erratic outflow winds.
Across southern Utah, gusty southwest winds will continue this afternoon before dying down this evening after sunset. Drier westerly flow will prevail on Sunday.

FIRE WEATHER
Isolated high-based showers and thunderstorms are expected across the northern half of Utah this afternoon and evening. Gusts near these showers are likely to exceed 40 mph, with the strongest storms producing gusts up to 60 mph. A couple of weak cold fronts will then impact northern Utah, one early Sunday and one likely late Monday into Tuesday. Each frontal passage will increase RH, and the Monday front will bring very light precipitation (and thus low chances for wetting rains, especially across extreme northern Utah). For southern Utah, expect hot, dry, and breezy conditions today, remaining hot and dry for the near future. By Wednesday, strong high pressure will build, producing very hot and dry conditions state-wide.

SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UT...None.
WY...None.

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