Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Springdale, UT
March 19, 2024 5:55 AM MDT (11:55 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 7:36 AM Sunset 7:46 PM Moonrise 1:34 PM Moonset 4:03 AM |
Area Discussion for - Salt Lake City, UT
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FXUS65 KSLC 191017 AFDSLC
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT 417 AM MDT Tue Mar 19 2024
SYNOPSIS
High pressure will continue to build into northern Utah maintaining warm, dry, and stable conditions through the week.
Meanwhile, a closed low over Arizona will persist will minimal impacts to southern Utah into Tuesday. Confidence is increasing that a strong cold front will move through the region in the late Saturday through Sunday timeframe, bringing a return to widespread unsettled conditions.
.SHORT TERM (Through 12Z/6AM Friday)...Early Tuesday morning analysis continued to show the presence of a Rex Block across the western CONUS, with a high pressure ridge centered over Northern California, while a closed low remained stationary over west- central Arizona. This stubborn low has now been in place in this same general vicinity going back all the way to last Thursday morning! "Low" and behold, model consensus indicates that this low will finally get on the move, with last round of guidance showing the low opening up into a trough this evening before migrating eastward towards the Four Corners. The future of the strong ridge is ill-fated as well, as it is forecast to weaken and translate overhead by late Wednesday. Dry, stable and steadily warming conditions will be in place across most of the area through Wednesday as a result, when high temperatures will rise to 5F to 15F above seasonal normals. An exception will be across southern Utah, particularly near the Arizona border, where isolated showers and perhaps a thunderstorm or two will develop this afternoon as these areas will reside near the northern periphery of best moisture. Notably, the QPF forecast has dropped off considerably when compared to the forecast 24 hours ago when a couple of areas of 0.30-0.40" of QPF were noted on ensemble max plots. Now, those values have dropped down to around 0.10"; and centered mainly over high terrain convection initiation sources.
A weak shortwave trough is forecast to translate eastward across northern Utah and SW Wyoming Thursday afternoon. Just enough moisture is forecast to be in place to allow for the development of a few showers across northern/central Utah and SW Wyoming during the afternoon and early evening. With 150-300J/kg of SBCAPE forecast to be in place, an isolated thunderstorm cannot be ruled out, with the most favored corridor across central Utah.
.LONG TERM (After 12Z/6AM Friday)...A ridge at the start of the long- term period will be short-lived as a broad trough pushes into the western US, bringing active weather to the forecast area through at least Tuesday.
Friday and Saturday morning will feature the first portion of the storm system, comprised of above-normal temperatures and increasing southwesterly flow as the ridge axis shifts eastward. As moisture filters into northern Utah on Friday, showers are likely to develop during the afternoon, especially across higher terrain, taking advantage of decent instability and southwesterly-favored orographic enhancement. Light precipitation may continue through the overnight and morning hours, though synoptic lift will be very limited until Saturday morning. A few thunderstorms aren't out of the question for Saturday afternoon ahead of the front, with fairly steep lapse rates and increasing moisture, though cloud cover may limit solar heating and thus convective development. As for increasing southwesterly winds, anticipate winds to be highest across western and especially southern Utah. The NBM 50th percentile wind gusts currently peak at around 45 mph in southwestern valleys, so this is a detail to keep an eye on regarding any future headlines. Regarding precipitation type, in this first phase, given warm antecedent conditions, valleys will remain as rain, with snow levels peaking at around 8000 ft Friday afternoon.
The heaviest precipitation will likely occur along the frontal passage, especially for valley locations. While the exact timing remains a bit fuzzy, the cold front should reach northern Utah roughly between Saturday afternoon and Saturday night. There is now higher confidence in a strong drop in temperatures and snow levels with the front, whereas yesterday was favoring a more gradual decrease. Along with mesoscale forcing along the baroclinic zone, Utah will be located in the polar exit region of a 170kt jet, thus promoting plentiful upper-level lift. Moisture will stick around behind the frontal passage, likely lasting through at least Tuesday...thus precipitation chances continue. In the mountains, a prolonged period of northwesterly flow will be good for favored areas such as the Upper Cottonwoods or in the Tushar Mountains.
Beyond Sunday, ensemble members start to diverge quite a bit with the upper-level pattern, mainly with the progression of the main trough.
Looking closer into valley precipitation type along/behind the cold front, most valleys below 5000 ft will remain as rain, though there is always the chance for further lowering of snow levels with heavier precipitation. Keeping in mind plenty of uncertainty, additional colder air filtering in early in the work week could produce snowfall early Monday or Tuesday morning(s).
AVIATION
KSLC...Light, diurnally-driven winds will continue with VFR conditions. A transition to northwesterly is expected around 19- 20z.
REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING
Light, diurnally-driven winds will continue with VFR conditions. There is a very low (10%) chance of a few isolated showers developing this afternoon across southwestern Utah, though these are unlikely to be impactful.
SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UT...None.
WY...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT 417 AM MDT Tue Mar 19 2024
SYNOPSIS
High pressure will continue to build into northern Utah maintaining warm, dry, and stable conditions through the week.
Meanwhile, a closed low over Arizona will persist will minimal impacts to southern Utah into Tuesday. Confidence is increasing that a strong cold front will move through the region in the late Saturday through Sunday timeframe, bringing a return to widespread unsettled conditions.
.SHORT TERM (Through 12Z/6AM Friday)...Early Tuesday morning analysis continued to show the presence of a Rex Block across the western CONUS, with a high pressure ridge centered over Northern California, while a closed low remained stationary over west- central Arizona. This stubborn low has now been in place in this same general vicinity going back all the way to last Thursday morning! "Low" and behold, model consensus indicates that this low will finally get on the move, with last round of guidance showing the low opening up into a trough this evening before migrating eastward towards the Four Corners. The future of the strong ridge is ill-fated as well, as it is forecast to weaken and translate overhead by late Wednesday. Dry, stable and steadily warming conditions will be in place across most of the area through Wednesday as a result, when high temperatures will rise to 5F to 15F above seasonal normals. An exception will be across southern Utah, particularly near the Arizona border, where isolated showers and perhaps a thunderstorm or two will develop this afternoon as these areas will reside near the northern periphery of best moisture. Notably, the QPF forecast has dropped off considerably when compared to the forecast 24 hours ago when a couple of areas of 0.30-0.40" of QPF were noted on ensemble max plots. Now, those values have dropped down to around 0.10"; and centered mainly over high terrain convection initiation sources.
A weak shortwave trough is forecast to translate eastward across northern Utah and SW Wyoming Thursday afternoon. Just enough moisture is forecast to be in place to allow for the development of a few showers across northern/central Utah and SW Wyoming during the afternoon and early evening. With 150-300J/kg of SBCAPE forecast to be in place, an isolated thunderstorm cannot be ruled out, with the most favored corridor across central Utah.
.LONG TERM (After 12Z/6AM Friday)...A ridge at the start of the long- term period will be short-lived as a broad trough pushes into the western US, bringing active weather to the forecast area through at least Tuesday.
Friday and Saturday morning will feature the first portion of the storm system, comprised of above-normal temperatures and increasing southwesterly flow as the ridge axis shifts eastward. As moisture filters into northern Utah on Friday, showers are likely to develop during the afternoon, especially across higher terrain, taking advantage of decent instability and southwesterly-favored orographic enhancement. Light precipitation may continue through the overnight and morning hours, though synoptic lift will be very limited until Saturday morning. A few thunderstorms aren't out of the question for Saturday afternoon ahead of the front, with fairly steep lapse rates and increasing moisture, though cloud cover may limit solar heating and thus convective development. As for increasing southwesterly winds, anticipate winds to be highest across western and especially southern Utah. The NBM 50th percentile wind gusts currently peak at around 45 mph in southwestern valleys, so this is a detail to keep an eye on regarding any future headlines. Regarding precipitation type, in this first phase, given warm antecedent conditions, valleys will remain as rain, with snow levels peaking at around 8000 ft Friday afternoon.
The heaviest precipitation will likely occur along the frontal passage, especially for valley locations. While the exact timing remains a bit fuzzy, the cold front should reach northern Utah roughly between Saturday afternoon and Saturday night. There is now higher confidence in a strong drop in temperatures and snow levels with the front, whereas yesterday was favoring a more gradual decrease. Along with mesoscale forcing along the baroclinic zone, Utah will be located in the polar exit region of a 170kt jet, thus promoting plentiful upper-level lift. Moisture will stick around behind the frontal passage, likely lasting through at least Tuesday...thus precipitation chances continue. In the mountains, a prolonged period of northwesterly flow will be good for favored areas such as the Upper Cottonwoods or in the Tushar Mountains.
Beyond Sunday, ensemble members start to diverge quite a bit with the upper-level pattern, mainly with the progression of the main trough.
Looking closer into valley precipitation type along/behind the cold front, most valleys below 5000 ft will remain as rain, though there is always the chance for further lowering of snow levels with heavier precipitation. Keeping in mind plenty of uncertainty, additional colder air filtering in early in the work week could produce snowfall early Monday or Tuesday morning(s).
AVIATION
KSLC...Light, diurnally-driven winds will continue with VFR conditions. A transition to northwesterly is expected around 19- 20z.
REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING
Light, diurnally-driven winds will continue with VFR conditions. There is a very low (10%) chance of a few isolated showers developing this afternoon across southwestern Utah, though these are unlikely to be impactful.
SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UT...None.
WY...None.
Airport Reports
EDIT (hide/show)  Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
KAZC COLORADO CITY MUNI,AZ | 19 sm | 20 min | S 04 | 10 sm | Clear | 36°F | 32°F | 87% | 30.15 |
Cedar City, UT,
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