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FXUS64 KOUN 020353 AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Norman OK 1053 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024

New AVIATION

SHORT TERM
(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 218 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024

Monitoring a few surface/satellite features early this afternoon that might give some clues as to what will happen during the overnight period. A diffuse dryline feature is noted on surface observations and zero-hour model analyses near the 100th meridian .
Dewpoints on the west side are in the mid-50s, and on the east side they are in the low-to-mid 60s. Meanwhile, satellite shows the development of several fields of cumulus clouds across western Oklahoma and southwestern Kansas. These features are telling in the face of wildly divergent model guidance regarding thermodynamics this afternoon and evening. The HRRR suggests widespread mixing with dewpoints ending up in the upper 40s, while the NAM suggests a solution that seems more in line with current observations.
Therefore, some credence is given to the NAM's depiction of about 1,500 J/kg of "skinny" CAPE this evening.

The current expectation is for storms to continue to develop across the high terrain just east of the Rockies (right now satellite shows a line of updrafts across the lee of the Sangre de Cristos) and move east-southeastward across the Plains this evening, generally organizing into a squall line. Sustenance of this MCS will be aided by the development of a 30-40 knot southerly LLJ this evening across the TX panhandle. CAM guidance has the MCS reaching northwest Oklahoma after 10:00 pm this evening, but there's quite a bit of question about how far it progresses. Given the fact that the LLJ does not appear like it will extend eastward into our area tonight, there is some indication that the MCS will turn south from northwest Oklahoma and weaken as it does so. With that said, damaging wind gusts and hail to the size of quarters are possible with this activity, primarily between 10:00 pm and 2:00 am.

These storms may leave behind an MCV tomorrow morning (after all, what's one more MCV after all of the ones we've had recently?).
There may be a secondary maximum in storm potential tomorrow morning somewhere further to the south and east around central Oklahoma.
While the severe risk with this potential round would likely be on the lower end, the chance for lightning and heavy rain will be watched closely.

Expect a little more in the way of return flow tomorrow afternoon to bring in low-70s dewpoints across most of the area. This should at least keep highs from getting well into the 90s, so one more day in the upper 80s can be expected. Traditional HRRR CAMs are bearish on the potential for storms to develop, but by all measure of the ingredients, there will be plenty of moisture/instability in place to sustain whatever forms off to our west. In contrast to previous nights, the LLJ should be rather strong across much of our area.
Therefore, tomorrow evening will be watched closely for MCS potential once more.

Meister

LONG TERM
(Sunday night through next Friday)
Issued at 218 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024

If you're looking for an end to stratus and low-to-medium chances for storms, then the end is potentially in sight. Of course, the trade-off is that we could see highs rising well into the 90s by the middle of next week, but you don't get one good thing with the weather without sacrificing another this time of year.

Another weak signal for an MCS coming south out of Kansas into north central Oklahoma was evident on the 12Z HRRR early Monday morning.
As with all of the other signals for storms, we'll watch this closely. In all likelihood, there will be a remnant outflow boundary left behind by all of these storms on Monday afternoon. Given the rich boundary-layer moisture content, an earlier-developing LLJ, and the presence of the boundary, we might shake things up on Monday afternoon and evening by seeing storms actually develop in our area instead of moving in from elsewhere. There is currently a Marginal (Level 1/5) risk of severe weather associated with this, and we'll continue to monitor.

From there, we look likely to enter at least the northern periphery of the subtropical ridge, which will be centered somewhere over the Stake Plains from Tuesday through Thursday. Though the mid-latitude jet won't retreat too far north, introducing some uncertainty and potential for northwest flow storms, right now the model consensus is that the middle of next week will be drier, sunnier, and hotter than the last week or so has been. Predictability begins to decrease toward the end of next week, but there is some signal for a trough to dig in to our northeast, which could bring us back into a slightly cooler northwest flow pattern.

Meister

AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1028 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024

A thunderstorm complex will move through northwestern Oklahoma this morning and diminish as it moves southeast into central Oklahoma. Severe wind gusts may occur at KWWR and KCSM before daybreak Sunday. Ceiling and visibility are expected to remain in VFR category apart from thunderstorms. Moderately gusty south wind is expected Sunday afternoon. More storms are expected Sunday evening.



PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Oklahoma City OK 85 69 86 69 / 20 30 30 30 Hobart OK 88 67 89 67 / 10 30 30 30 Wichita Falls TX 88 70 89 71 / 20 10 30 30 Gage OK 88 65 90 66 / 30 50 20 20 Ponca City OK 84 67 86 69 / 40 30 30 40 Durant OK 87 68 88 71 / 20 10 20 30

OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...None.
TX...None.

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