Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Nash, OK
March 18, 2024 11:37 PM CDT (04:37 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 7:35 AM Sunset 7:43 PM Moonrise 12:31 PM Moonset 3:15 AM |
Area Discussion for - Norman, OK
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FXUS64 KOUN 190351 AFDOUN
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Norman OK 1051 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024
New AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 350 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024
Low end fire weather conditions and warming trend are the two headlines for the short term. High surface pressure moves out and across the Deep South Region tonight gradually shifting winds out of the southwest across our area. Although clear night skies, winds should impede strong radiational measurable cooling but it place there will be a wind chill. We will still have a final cold night in the 30s with most locations staying just above freezing while very dry air should inhibit any frost. However, wind chill values will make it feel in the 20s tonight. While a cut-off low continues to spin over the U.S. Southwest, an ridge in the weak subtropical westerlies start building over the Southern Plains on Tuesday.
Increasing southwest winds by the afternoon hours under the ridging and sunny skies will start a warming trend as our temperatures rise above climatically average into the lower to mid 70s. Although we will see some weak low-level moisture return into much of our area, drier air across the Panhandles may result in lower afternoon RH values across northwest Oklahoma. The dry air and warmer temperatures combined with gusty (25-30 mph) southwest winds may be sufficient to elevate fire weather conditions on Tuesday afternoon across northwest Oklahoma where ground fuels/vegetation remains dry.
LONG TERM
(Tuesday night through next Sunday)
Issued at 350 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024
A bit warmer Wednesday night under the exiting ridge with lows in the 40s. The aforementioned cut-off system gets recaptured by the stronger polar jet flow and starts digging across the Southwest U.S.
toward the Southern Plains. Gulf moisture transport increases by Wednesday into our area sharpening up a dryline across western Texas up through the Texas/OK Panhandles.
The increasing low-level moisture combined with colder Pacific air aloft coming through the trough will start destabilizing much of our area for potential convective weather along with rain with the approaching weather system. The consensus of models has a bullseye of up to 1000 J/kg of SBCAPE across the eastern half of the panhandles through much of our western CWA although overall shear is weak. A surface low develops lee of the Colorado Rockies and settling across southeast Colorado through southwest Kansas as a weak cold front stalls nearly along the Kansas/Oklahoma state lines.
Although mid-level moisture/cloudiness starts increasing in the afternoon, our boundary layer and mid-levels may stay mixed and uncapped for surface based storm initiation with additional elevated storms/rain with mid-level ascent from the trough as seen in the vorticity & omega fields. Will have storm POPs generally west and north of I-44 on Wednesday afternoon. There is a marginal risk for severe storms late Wednesday afternoon into the evening hours across western Oklahoma where instability could be near moderate in the proximity of the surface low and stalled frontal boundary. Weak shear would keep any storms from organizing and becoming supercells but a few storms could pulse up low-end severe with up to quarter size hail and damaging wind gusts as potential hazards. POPs increase across our entire area Wednesday night into Thursday as the upper trough moves through with mostly showers and a few weak elevated storms. By late Thursday morning, the stalled cold front starts pushing through maintaining rain/storm POPs in our area. Near moderate instability shifts across northern Texas into southcentral Oklahoma by Thursday afternoon in the warm/moist sector ahead of the cold front, so cannot rule out a potential for strong to low end severe storms in that area. POPs end in our area Thursday night as this system moves out to the east.
On Friday, a Canadian system pushes another cold front down through the Central Plains with both GFS & ECMWF now consistent with timing.
However models not consistent with how far south the colder air surges with the GFS and MEX guidance most aggressive with the front and cooler for Friday night into Saturday bringing the 1000-850 mph critical thickness line into northern Oklahoma. For now will stick with the less aggressive ECMWF and warmer NBM guidance in the forecast for Friday nights MinT and Saturday's MaxT although it could change. Will keep low (20-30%) rain/storm POPs across northern and central Oklahoma on Saturday due to a potential shortwave moving through our zonal flow aloft. Gusty south winds return on Sunday while upper flow shifts out of the southwest as a longwave trough starts digging across the western half of the country. Fire weather conditions may return across our western CWA Sunday afternoon with rain/storm chances increasing widespread into Sunday night into Monday. We could see a brief surge of cold winterlike Canadian air behind a strong cold front early next week perhaps Monday night.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1049 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024
VFR are still expected to apply through the forecast period. Skies will generally remain clear. Expect an increase in SSW winds with some gusts approaching 20 kt after 18Z Tue. Some high clouds may also sneak in after this time.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Oklahoma City OK 54 36 72 47 / 0 0 0 0 Hobart OK 58 35 71 44 / 0 0 0 0 Wichita Falls TX 59 36 71 46 / 0 0 0 0 Gage OK 59 38 75 41 / 0 0 0 0 Ponca City OK 51 33 76 44 / 0 0 0 0 Durant OK 57 33 69 45 / 0 0 0 0
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...None.
TX...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Norman OK 1051 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024
New AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 350 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024
Low end fire weather conditions and warming trend are the two headlines for the short term. High surface pressure moves out and across the Deep South Region tonight gradually shifting winds out of the southwest across our area. Although clear night skies, winds should impede strong radiational measurable cooling but it place there will be a wind chill. We will still have a final cold night in the 30s with most locations staying just above freezing while very dry air should inhibit any frost. However, wind chill values will make it feel in the 20s tonight. While a cut-off low continues to spin over the U.S. Southwest, an ridge in the weak subtropical westerlies start building over the Southern Plains on Tuesday.
Increasing southwest winds by the afternoon hours under the ridging and sunny skies will start a warming trend as our temperatures rise above climatically average into the lower to mid 70s. Although we will see some weak low-level moisture return into much of our area, drier air across the Panhandles may result in lower afternoon RH values across northwest Oklahoma. The dry air and warmer temperatures combined with gusty (25-30 mph) southwest winds may be sufficient to elevate fire weather conditions on Tuesday afternoon across northwest Oklahoma where ground fuels/vegetation remains dry.
LONG TERM
(Tuesday night through next Sunday)
Issued at 350 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024
A bit warmer Wednesday night under the exiting ridge with lows in the 40s. The aforementioned cut-off system gets recaptured by the stronger polar jet flow and starts digging across the Southwest U.S.
toward the Southern Plains. Gulf moisture transport increases by Wednesday into our area sharpening up a dryline across western Texas up through the Texas/OK Panhandles.
The increasing low-level moisture combined with colder Pacific air aloft coming through the trough will start destabilizing much of our area for potential convective weather along with rain with the approaching weather system. The consensus of models has a bullseye of up to 1000 J/kg of SBCAPE across the eastern half of the panhandles through much of our western CWA although overall shear is weak. A surface low develops lee of the Colorado Rockies and settling across southeast Colorado through southwest Kansas as a weak cold front stalls nearly along the Kansas/Oklahoma state lines.
Although mid-level moisture/cloudiness starts increasing in the afternoon, our boundary layer and mid-levels may stay mixed and uncapped for surface based storm initiation with additional elevated storms/rain with mid-level ascent from the trough as seen in the vorticity & omega fields. Will have storm POPs generally west and north of I-44 on Wednesday afternoon. There is a marginal risk for severe storms late Wednesday afternoon into the evening hours across western Oklahoma where instability could be near moderate in the proximity of the surface low and stalled frontal boundary. Weak shear would keep any storms from organizing and becoming supercells but a few storms could pulse up low-end severe with up to quarter size hail and damaging wind gusts as potential hazards. POPs increase across our entire area Wednesday night into Thursday as the upper trough moves through with mostly showers and a few weak elevated storms. By late Thursday morning, the stalled cold front starts pushing through maintaining rain/storm POPs in our area. Near moderate instability shifts across northern Texas into southcentral Oklahoma by Thursday afternoon in the warm/moist sector ahead of the cold front, so cannot rule out a potential for strong to low end severe storms in that area. POPs end in our area Thursday night as this system moves out to the east.
On Friday, a Canadian system pushes another cold front down through the Central Plains with both GFS & ECMWF now consistent with timing.
However models not consistent with how far south the colder air surges with the GFS and MEX guidance most aggressive with the front and cooler for Friday night into Saturday bringing the 1000-850 mph critical thickness line into northern Oklahoma. For now will stick with the less aggressive ECMWF and warmer NBM guidance in the forecast for Friday nights MinT and Saturday's MaxT although it could change. Will keep low (20-30%) rain/storm POPs across northern and central Oklahoma on Saturday due to a potential shortwave moving through our zonal flow aloft. Gusty south winds return on Sunday while upper flow shifts out of the southwest as a longwave trough starts digging across the western half of the country. Fire weather conditions may return across our western CWA Sunday afternoon with rain/storm chances increasing widespread into Sunday night into Monday. We could see a brief surge of cold winterlike Canadian air behind a strong cold front early next week perhaps Monday night.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1049 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024
VFR are still expected to apply through the forecast period. Skies will generally remain clear. Expect an increase in SSW winds with some gusts approaching 20 kt after 18Z Tue. Some high clouds may also sneak in after this time.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Oklahoma City OK 54 36 72 47 / 0 0 0 0 Hobart OK 58 35 71 44 / 0 0 0 0 Wichita Falls TX 59 36 71 46 / 0 0 0 0 Gage OK 59 38 75 41 / 0 0 0 0 Ponca City OK 51 33 76 44 / 0 0 0 0 Durant OK 57 33 69 45 / 0 0 0 0
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...None.
TX...None.
Airport Reports
EDIT (hide/show)  Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
KWDG ENID WOODRING RGNL,OK | 21 sm | 22 min | calm | 10 sm | Clear | 32°F | 27°F | 80% | 30.25 | |
KEND VANCE AFB,OK | 22 sm | 42 min | S 09 | 10 sm | Clear | 36°F | 21°F | 55% | 30.23 |
Vance AFB, OK,
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