Sunrise 4:30 AM   Sunset 11:24 PM Moonrise 1:56 AM   Moonset 3:14 PM

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PKZ851 Southwest Of Saint Lawrence Island From 15 To 100 Nm- 432 Am Akdt Sat Jun 1 2024
.small craft advisory in effect through early Sunday morning - .
Today - NE winds 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Tonight - NE winds 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. Sun - NE winds 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Sun night - N winds 30 kt. Seas 7 ft. Mon - N winds 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. Mon night - N winds 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Tue - NW winds 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. Wed - N winds 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.

PKZ800
No data

FXAK69 PAFG 011440 AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fairbanks AK 640 AM AKDT Sat Jun 1 2024

SYNOPSIS
A very pleasant summer Saturday is expected across the Interior today with temperatures rising into the upper 60s to mid 70s under mostly sunny skies. Thunderstorms will be more limited today except in the Upper Koyukuk Valley this afternoon. Sunday will bring more in the way of showers and thunderstorms as a strong shortwave trough moves west across the Interior. Out west, Gale force winds will blow through the Bering Strait through at least Monday with near freezing temperatures. Accumulating snow is likely through the Central Brooks Range and north to the Arctic Coast tonight through Monday.

DISCUSSION

Analysis and Model Discussion...Mainland Alaska remains sandwiched in between a number of upper level lows. This will bring continued showery conditions to most of northern Alaska. At 500 mb, a 527 dam low lies north of Prudhoe Bay with a 522 dam low in the Bering Sea and a 532 dam low in the Gulf of Alaska. These lows will largely remain in place until early Sunday morning when the low in the Arctic dives south as a cutoff low feature, reaching the Yukon Delta by Tuesday morning. This setup combined with high pressure over the western Chukchi Sea will bring strong to Gale force northerly winds through the Bering Strait. As this low dives south on Sunday morning, a strong shortwave trough will move into the central and eastern Interior from the east. Models have sped this feature up significantly over the past 24 hours, now showing it moving through the Fairbanks area before peak heating and forming a convergence zone with moisture being advected northward by the low diving south. This should move the focus of heavy showers and thunderstorms to be from the Lower Yukon northeast to Tanana to near Arctic Village on Sunday afternoon. Precipitation will fall across the Brooks Range and North Slope as well, with accumulating snow expected from Atigun to Anaktuvuk Pass across the North Slope and north to Prudhoe Bay.
With the low moving south through early next week, this opens the door for additional shortwave troughs from the east to bring heavy showers and thunderstorms to the central and eastern Interior.

Models are in excellent agreement, especially considering how complex this pattern is with numerous shortwaves. We will use a blend of models for the forecast today. We will follow the model trends and speed up the precipitation associated with the shortwave on Sunday and make minor tweaks to the winds through the Bering Strait and through Alaska Range Passes.

West Coast and Western Interior...Summer conditions are expected today across most of the area except through the Bering Strait where north winds will increase to Gale force and freezing temperatures will persist. These winds will likely persist through Tuesday as a deep Arctic trough drops south over the area. This will bring cooler temperatures through early next week.
Thunderstorm chances will be greatest today across the Upper Kobuk Valley as remnant shortwave energy from yesterday continues to move through the area.

Central and Eastern Interior...Warm and sunny conditions are expected beneath a building ridge. Isolated thunderstorms will be mainly confined to higher terrain and much more isolated today than the past few days. On Sunday a shortwave trough from the east will bring a round of locally heavy showers and widely scattered thunderstorms along with slightly cooler temperatures. The area of focus for precipitation and thunderstorms looks to be from Nikolai to Manley Hot Springs and north along the Elliott and Dalton Highway corridor. Precipitation amounts could approach one half inch in areas that see the strongest storms and/or multiple storms. Monday will bring more showers and thunderstorms, with the wetter pattern continuing through much of next week.

North Slope and Brooks Range...Areas of freezing fog continue this morning along the Arctic Coast and inland across the Arctic plains. Light snow is expected starting tonight in the Central Brooks Range as an Arctic trough digs south. A more well defined convergence zone will develop on Sunday, bringing heavier snowfall to the Central Brooks Range and accumulating snow as far north as the Arctic Coast. Expect 2 to 4 inches of snow from Anaktuvuk Pass to Sag DOT Camp, about 2 inches north of there to the Arctic Coast, and up to 6 inches over Atigun Pass.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

FIRE WEATHER
Near Red Flag conditions are expected today across the Middle Tanana Valley and Yukon Flats with high temperatures approaching 75 degrees and minimum relative humidities dropping into the 20 to 25 percent range. Expecting winds to remain below 15 mph though. Widely scattered thunderstorms are still expected northeast of Huslia today as shortwave energy from yesterday remains. Across the rest of the Interior, thunderstorm activity will be lower beneath a ridge building in from the northeast.

On Sunday, a shortwave trough from the east will cause increased thunderstorm activity as well as locally heavy showers. The focus of the thunderstorms looks to be from Nikolai to Manley Hot Springs and north along the Elliott and Dalton Highway corridor.
Temperatures will be cooler and RHs a bit wetter on Sunday.
Additional shortwaves from the east embedded in a very persistent pattern will bring more showers and thunderstorms into next week.

HYDROLOGY
The water level in Fort Yukon will continue receding very slowly. Satellites and ground observations continue to indicate abundant snow in the Porcupine Mountains. As temperatures warm this week, snowmelt could lead to continued high water along the Porcupine and the interrelated sloughs.

AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AK...None.
PK...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ801-802.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ805.
Gale Warning for PKZ806.
Gale Warning for PKZ807.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ808.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ810.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ811-816-817-850-851-857.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ812-853.
Gale Warning for PKZ854.
Gale Warning for PKZ856.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ858.

Moghoweyik River entrance
Click for Map
Sat -- 12:33 AM AKDT     0.21 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 01:17 AM AKDT     Sunset
Sat -- 04:56 AM AKDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 05:32 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 05:35 AM AKDT     1.64 feet High Tide
Sat -- 01:28 PM AKDT     0.03 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:14 PM AKDT     Moonset
Sat -- 06:27 PM AKDT     1.38 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Moghoweyik River entrance, St. Lawrence Island, Alaska, Tide feet

Niyrakpak Lagoon entrance
Click for Map
Sat -- 01:18 AM AKDT     Sunset
Sat -- 01:51 AM AKDT     0.16 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 04:54 AM AKDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 05:28 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:28 AM AKDT     1.23 feet High Tide
Sat -- 02:46 PM AKDT     0.02 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:12 PM AKDT     Moonset
Sat -- 09:20 PM AKDT     1.04 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Niyrakpak Lagoon entrance, St. Lawrence Island, Alaska, Tide feet

Full Color Weather Map

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