DISCUSSION
Upper Level Analysis...
A 548 decameter low is making its way through the Western Interior and will be in the Central Interior this morning as it begins to strengthen. This afternoon, the low will transfer some energy to the north as it cycles and forms a 541 decameter low in the Eastern Brooks Range by tonight. This will allow for a strong deformation zone to develop on the west side of the low from Fairbanks to Anaktuvuk Pass and Deadhorse. While this is happening, brief and relatively weak ridging will be over the West Coast and Western Interior, then traverse east over the Central Interior Sunday afternoon and over the Eastern Interior Monday morning. Another low around 533 decameters then takes aim at the West Coast .

Surface Analysis...
There are a few surface features over the state this morning, including a couple of weak areas of low pressure over the Brooks Range. One of which is in the Eastern Brooks Range at 998 mb, and the other is in the Western Brooks Range at 999 mb with a stationary front connecting the two, making for an elongated area of low pressure. To the north over the Arctic, there is a high pressure at 1012 mb. The low over the Western Brooks Range will gradually move east and get absorbed by the one in the east, then it gets a little boost from upper level energy to form a stronger low later today. This causes rain to continue in the Brooks Range and potentially snow from the Brooks Range north as it dynamically cools the atmosphere. Rain will then spread south through the Central Interior with many areas seeing heavy rain and gusty winds this afternoon.

Central and Eastern Interior...
Rain is shifting northeast this morning, but steady rain will continue around Bettles due to a low in the Eastern Brooks Range.
This steady rain will expand south and be in Fairbanks around 2-4 PM this afternoon then gradually spread south/east during the evening and overnight. The rain may be heavy at times with southwest wind gusting upwards of 30 mph in/around Fairbanks with 35 mph gusts in the higher terrain along the Steese, Elliott and Dalton Highways. Timing for the end of the rain looks to be around 8 PM this evening in Bettles, 10AM - 1PM Sunday from Fairbanks to Fort Yukon and 4-7 PM Sunday in the Eastern Interior with isolated showers lingering thereafter. Sunday afternoon does look fairly nice in the Central Interior, by far the nicest weather this weekend with high temperatures in the 60s and some sunshine trying to peak out. Another round of rain comes in on Monday.

West Coast and Western Interior...
Stratus, fog and rain showers will be the name of the game today.
The exception will be northeast of Huslia where steady rain, heavy at times resides. High elevation snow in the Brooks Range is also possible above 3000 feet this afternoon and overnight. Otherwise, expect rain showers favoring the Bering Strait Region and YK/Kuskokwim Valley's this morning. The afternoon and evening does look to be nicer overall as it begins to dry out and the sun may even try to peak out in a few spots. Most of Sunday then looks mainly dry until another low enters SW AK in the early afternoon.
This will gradually move northeast through the evening with rain overspreading much of the area by midnight Sunday night. Monday will come with steady rain moving through the Northern Interior with showers in the Bering Strait Region and SW AK.

North Slope and Brooks Range...
Rainfall will be turning into accumulating snowfall for parts of the Arctic Coast and N Slope this afternoon into tonight. Around 0.50-1.25 inches of additional rainfall is likely prior to the changeover to snow this afternoon. The best chance for snowfall will be from Prudhoe Bay to Toolik Field Station to the Central Brooks Range. Around 1-2 inches of snow is possible in Anaktuvuk Pass with several inches of snowfall over the higher terrain, and a coating to 2 inches for lower elevations near the coast. Most snow and rain will end Sunday morning in the Brooks Range with precipitation lingering through Sunday evening along the coast with high pressure persisting along with northeast winds.

Extended Forecast Days 4-7...
Rain will be moving out of the West Coast and Western Interior on Tuesday but will cover the Central and Eastern Interior once again. The low associated with this rain may try to hang on and keep rain in the forecast for Wednesday, but a transient ridge will try its best to push it out, leaving a nice day overall on Wednesday. Otherwise, additional fronts look to bring more rain Thursday and Friday all across Northern AK. Looking at next weekend, there are signs that a ridge builds in the east bringing warmer temperatures once again, but there is low confidence as of now.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

FIRE WEATHER
Showers and steadier rain will persist this weekend with temperatures running below seasonal normals. This afternoon comes with breezy southwest winds to 30 mph across much of the Central/Eastern Interior wih rainfall. We are not expecting many thunderstorms but there may be one in the SE Interior, along the AlCan border this afternoon and tomorrow afternoon. No thunderstorms in the forecast for the beginning of next week.

HYDROLOGY
An additional 0.50-1.25 inches of rain is expected over the Brooks Range through Sunday, which will allow rivers draining into the Arctic to get to near action stage. All rivers draining the Brooks Range will see rapid rises including, but not limited to, the Koyukuk and Alatna. In the Interior, continued rainfall today and tomorrow will bring the Tanana River to action stage by Monday.

AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AK...None.
PK...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ806-815.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ807.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ811-812-857-858.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ814-854-856.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ860-861.