Sunrise 6:10 AM   Sunset 7:48 PM Moonrise 2:22 AM   Moonset 3:22 PM

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PMZ021 Southern Gulf Of California- 1239 Pm Pdt Sun Jun 2 2024
Tonight - S winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft or less. Period 14 seconds. Mon - SE to S winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft or less. Period 14 seconds. Mon night - S to sw winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft or less. Period 13 seconds. Tue - S to sw winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft or less. Period 16 seconds. Tue night - SW to W winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 ft or less. Period 16 seconds. Wed - W winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft or less. Period 16 seconds. Wed night - SW winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft or less. Period 15 seconds. Thu - S to sw winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft or less. Period 15 seconds. Thu night - S to sw winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft or less. Period 15 seconds. Fri - SE to S winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft or less. Period 14 seconds. Fri night - S winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft or less. Period 15 seconds.

PMZ005
No data

FXUS64 KMAF 021915 AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 215 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM

SHORT TERM
(This afternoon through Monday night)
Issued at 205 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

One more round of strong to severe thunderstorms is possible today, and then we dry out and the heat cranks back up across the region.
This afternoon, an outflow boundary associated with earlier convection north of the area continues to sag southward, with new convection developing off the Caprock and across the Red River Valley. This feature may aid in the development of thunderstorms over the northeastern Permian Basin over the next few hours, though there remains a bit of uncertainty in this outcome as the outflow's progression slows and forcing associated with its western periphery wanes somewhat. Another feature that could serve as a focus for thunderstorm development today is the dryline, currently drifting slowly eastward across the area. And, while flow aloft remains fairly weak and quasi-zonal, a subtle shortwave evident on water vapor imagery over eastern New Mexico may provide an enhancement to ascent. There remains quite a bit of uncertainty in how storms will pan out, with CAMs largely in agreement that storms will be isolated, but in disagreement regarding location. Overall, there may be a storm or two that manages to develop off of the Davis and Glass Mountains into Pecos County, and another potential focus across the northern Permian Basin in closer proximity to the aforementioned outflow boundary and shortwave. Regardless, any storm that develops today will have the potential to become severe, with large to very large hail the primary concern given steep midlevel lapse rates, along with damaging wind and locally heavy rain. Storms will move eastward, exiting the area late evening.

Aside from storm potential, temperatures today are on target to top out in the 90s for most, with 100s through portions of the river valleys. A Heat Advisory remains in effect for the Chinati Mountains, Davis Mountains and Foothills, and Brewster County, with the hottest temperatures around 110F focused along the Rio Grande in the Big Bend. Tonight will be a quiet, warm night as moisture remains elevated, with lows 2-5 degrees above normal in the lower to middle 60s west to middle 70s east and along the Rio Grande. Monday will be even hotter with lower 100s becoming more widespread, and additional Heat Advisories expected for the same areas as today, possibly expanding across the Pecos Valley and Stockton Plateau.
After an active several days storm-wise, Monday will finally provide a reprieve, with dry conditions areawide.

JP

LONG TERM
(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 205 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

Dry and hot describes much of the long term as Tuesday through Thursday of this week will be the hottest stretch of the year so far. Highs each day reach into the upper 90s to low 100s for most with only the higher terrain "only" reaching into the low to mid 90s. Much of Big Bend will be scorching as portions of the area touch the 110s. The heat will stick around due to a broad ridge that takes hold over the western US and begin to move near West Texas and southeast New Mexico. Shortwave troughs undercut the ridge (sounds a little like monsoon season?) and lead to isolated or scattered storms for the end of the coming week. Lowered PoPs slightly to reflect some uncertainty for both the timing and possible location of storms that far out. With the troughs pushing into the area, the heat takes a bit of a break as temperatures drop near normal in the 90s for most.

-Stickney

AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1240 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

VFR conditions will continue the next 24 hours. Winds will be elevated and at least intermittently gusty at all terminals this afternoon, out of the S/SE at MAF/FST, and S/SW at CNM, HOB, INK, and PEQ. A few thunderstorms are possible this afternoon, mainly impacting MAF and FST, though low confidence precludes any mention at this time. Thus, will monitor and amend as needed. Winds become lighter overnight, and shift to the W/NW Monday morning.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Big Spring 73 102 69 104 / 20 0 0 0 Carlsbad 66 100 70 103 / 0 0 0 0 Dryden 74 103 72 105 / 10 0 0 0 Fort Stockton 71 103 70 104 / 10 0 0 0 Guadalupe Pass 66 91 66 92 / 0 0 0 0 Hobbs 63 100 63 101 / 0 0 0 0 Marfa 60 95 58 95 / 0 0 0 0 Midland Intl Airport 72 101 68 103 / 10 0 0 0 Odessa 71 101 69 103 / 10 0 0 0 Wink 66 105 66 105 / 0 0 0 0

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for Central Brewster County-Chinati Mountains-Chisos Basin-Davis Mountains-Davis Mountains Foothills-Lower Brewster County.

NM...None.

Topolobampo
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Sun -- 01:17 AM MST     0.10 meters Low Tide
Sun -- 02:22 AM MST     Moonrise
Sun -- 05:24 AM MST     Sunrise
Sun -- 07:26 AM MST     0.84 meters High Tide
Sun -- 12:40 PM MST     0.31 meters Low Tide
Sun -- 03:21 PM MST     Moonset
Sun -- 06:58 PM MST     1.23 meters High Tide
Sun -- 07:03 PM MST     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Topolobampo, Sinaloa, Mexico, Tide feet

Yavaros
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Sun -- 01:25 AM MST     0.07 meters Low Tide
Sun -- 02:23 AM MST     Moonrise
Sun -- 05:24 AM MST     Sunrise
Sun -- 07:34 AM MST     0.78 meters High Tide
Sun -- 12:41 PM MST     0.36 meters Low Tide
Sun -- 03:24 PM MST     Moonset
Sun -- 06:58 PM MST     1.18 meters High Tide
Sun -- 07:07 PM MST     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Yavaros, Sonora, Mexico, Tide feet

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