Sunrise 6:26 AM   Sunset 7:30 PM Moonrise 10:40 PM   Moonset 8:07 AM

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PMZ021 Southern Gulf Of California- 815 Pm Pdt Fri Apr 26 2024
Overnight - W winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft. Period 18 seconds. Sat - W winds 10 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft. Period 17 seconds. Sat night - W to nw winds 10 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Period 17 seconds. Sun - NW winds 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. Period 16 seconds. Sun night - W to nw winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. Period 16 seconds. Mon - W to nw winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. Period 15 seconds. Mon night - S to sw winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. Period 15 seconds. Tue - S winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. Period 14 seconds. Tue night - S winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. Period 14 seconds. Wed - S winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. Period 18 seconds. Wed night - S to sw winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. Period 18 seconds.

PMZ005
No data

FXUS64 KMAF 270514 AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 1214 AM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

New AVIATION

SHORT TERM
(This afternoon through Saturday night)
Issued at 151 PM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

Westerly winds have picked up across the area and are blowing 25 to 35mph. These winds are advecting in dry air from the west and will prevent any severe convection from developing in our CWA this afternoon and evening. Winds weaken overnight allowing a dryline in west central Texas to retreat back into the eastern Permian Basin by sunrise on Saturday morning. The NAM Nest is showing convection breaking out near Snyder and Colorado City Saturday morning along the dryline though most models keep the dryline inactive. Will keep a slight chance of storms to account for this possibility but the better storm chances will be in the afternoon as an upper trough moving into eastern New Mexico as well daytime heating maximize instability. A line of storms is expected to form Saturday afternoon and evening from Snyder and Big Spring south to Sheffield and Dryden in the lower Trans Pecos. Any storms could become severe so everyone should keep an eye out for storms the next 36 hours. Westerly flow associated with the trough will push the storms east of our area overnight.

Dry air across the area kept temperatures pleasant this morning and expect more of the same tonight and tomorrow night as lows drop into the 50s for most, some 60s along the Rio Grande. 40s are even expected Sunday morning in southeastern New Mexico, the northwestern Permian Basin, and mountains west of the Pecos. Highs will be in the 80s Saturday with 90s in the Pecos and Rio Grande valleys.

Hennig

LONG TERM
(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 151 PM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

Quieter weather sets in for the long term. The upper level low responsible for our windy Saturday moves up into the Central Plains on Sunday, and dry zonal flow aloft sets in over the area. This zonal flow turns more southwesterly by early week as weak ridging begins to build back in and the thermal ridge axis sets up over far West Texas. Temperatures look to remain at or above normal through Tuesday with this pattern, and most locations will be in the upper 80s/low 90s each afternoon. On Wednesday, a shortwave trough embedded in the ridge moves across, while better moisture is ushered in as surface flow turns southerly in response to lee troughing.
This should be sufficient for at least some afternoon convection, especially for those east of the dryline, which may continue into Wednesday evening. As the shortwave departs early Thursday, eyes turn to a cold front pushing down into the Panhandle while the associated upper level trough treks across the northern Plains. At this point temperatures look to cool Thursday and Friday behind the front, but should remain in the 80s area-wide. Depending on available moisture as this front moves down, there is the possibility of another round or two of showers/storms Thursday into Friday. Stay tuned.

-Zuber

AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1212 AM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

VFR will prevail through the period with westerly winds. Gusts will approach 35 kts are KCNM by afternoon.

FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 151 PM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

ERCs are currently right around the 50th percentile, but will continue to tick up closer to the 75th percentile through the weekend. Similarly, fuels continue at or above normal moisture, however, drying is expected the next few days as humidity continues to fall to critical levels each afternoon and overnight recoveries remain poor to fair across the west. After a windy day yesterday, 20ft winds today remain elevated (~15-20kts in SE New Mexico and the mountains) but comparatively lighter while humidity region-wide is below 15 percent with RFTI values of 4-5. A Fire Danger Statement is in effect for this afternoon across SE New Mexico and the higher terrain where the strongest winds will be despite the high fuel moisture. Winds pick up on Saturday with an approaching upper level low and gusts could reach as high as 55kts in the mountains with 30kts+ in the Plains and Foothills. Fuels will be drying out through Saturday and ERCs may reach the 75th+ percentile in the Big Bend Region and lower Trans Pecos. With the uptick in winds, along with critically low humidity and RFTIs reaching 6-7, a Red Flag Warning has been issued for SE New Mexico, the Big Bend, and the higher terrain. Similar to Thursday, there will be a threat of thunderstorms Saturday evening which may produce gusty and erratic winds along with some lightning, but this looks to be fairly confined to the far eastern Permian Basin and lower Trans Pecos. Beyond Saturday, lighter winds, cooler temperatures, and better overnight recoveries will limit fire weather concerns somewhat until Wednesday when a shortwave trough arrives and storms return for the remainder of the week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Big Spring 54 85 53 89 / 20 0 0 0 Carlsbad 49 81 51 88 / 0 0 0 0 Dryden 59 90 59 92 / 20 0 0 0 Fort Stockton 55 86 56 89 / 10 0 0 0 Guadalupe Pass 48 71 52 78 / 0 0 0 0 Hobbs 45 80 50 84 / 0 0 0 0 Marfa 42 76 41 83 / 0 0 0 0 Midland Intl Airport 54 83 54 87 / 10 0 0 0 Odessa 55 83 56 87 / 10 0 0 0 Wink 51 85 54 90 / 0 0 0 0

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...High Wind Warning from 7 AM CDT /6 AM MDT/ this morning to 1 AM CDT /midnight MDT/ Sunday for Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains.

Red Flag Warning from 1 PM CDT /noon MDT/ this afternoon to 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ this evening for Central Brewster County- Chinati Mountains-Chisos Basin-Davis Mountains-Davis Mountains Foothills-Eastern Culberson County-Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains- Lower Brewster County-Marfa Plateau-Presidio Valley-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor.

NM...High Wind Warning from 6 AM Saturday to midnight MDT Saturday night for Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

Red Flag Warning from noon to 8 PM MDT Saturday for Chaves Plains-Eddy Plains-Lea-Sacramento Foothills and Guadalupe Mountains.

Topolobampo
Click for Map
Sat -- 05:40 AM MST     -0.26 meters Low Tide
Sat -- 05:42 AM MST     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:07 AM MST     Moonset
Sat -- 12:34 PM MST     0.53 meters High Tide
Sat -- 03:42 PM MST     0.46 meters Low Tide
Sat -- 06:45 PM MST     Sunset
Sat -- 10:18 PM MST     1.19 meters High Tide
Sat -- 10:40 PM MST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Topolobampo, Sinaloa, Mexico, Tide feet

Yavaros
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Sat -- 05:32 AM MST     -0.17 meters Low Tide
Sat -- 05:42 AM MST     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:06 AM MST     Moonset
Sat -- 12:31 PM MST     0.70 meters High Tide
Sat -- 03:59 PM MST     0.59 meters Low Tide
Sat -- 06:48 PM MST     Sunset
Sat -- 10:22 PM MST     1.19 meters High Tide
Sat -- 10:45 PM MST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Yavaros, Sonora, Mexico, Tide feet

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