Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for South Point, TX
March 18, 2024 8:55 PM CST (02:55 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 5:44 AM Sunset 5:52 PM Moonrise 1:37 PM Moonset 2:03 AM |
PMZ028 Oaxaca E Of Puerto Angel Within 300 Nm Offshore Including The Gulf Of Tehuantepec- 309 Pm Pdt Mon Mar 18 2024
.gale warning - .
Tonight - N of 14n, W to nw winds 10 kt, becoming nw to N and increasing to 20 to 35 kt late. S of 14n, variable winds less than 5 kt, becoming N 10 kt late. Seas 5 to 7 ft in sw swell. Period 16 seconds.
Tue - NW to N winds 20 to 30 kt N of 14n, and N to ne 15 to 20 kt S of 14n. Seas 6 to 9 ft in W swell. Period 16 seconds.
Tue night - NW to N winds 20 to 35 kt N of 14n, and N to ne 15 to 20 kt S of 14n. Seas 6 to 9 ft in nw to N swell. Period 17 seconds.
Wed - N to ne winds 15 to 20 kt, shifting to ne 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 6 to 9 ft in nw to N swell. Period 17 seconds.
Wed night - NE winds 10 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft in sw swell. Period 16 seconds.
Thu - NE winds 10 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft in sw swell. Period 15 seconds.
Thu night - NW to N winds 10 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft in sw swell. Period 14 seconds.
Fri - N winds 10 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Period 13 seconds.
Fri night - W to nw winds 10 kt N of 14n, and variable less than 5 kt S of 14n. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Period 13 seconds.
Sat - N winds 10 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Period 13 seconds.
Sat night - NW winds 15 to 20 kt N of 14n, and N 10 kt S of 14n. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Period 13 seconds.
PMZ005
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Area Discussion for - Brownsville, TX
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FXUS64 KBRO 182321 AAA AFDBRO
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Brownsville TX 621 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024
New AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(Tonight through Tuesday night)
Issued at 206 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024
The forecast remains of track. The Rex block pattern that has been highlighted the past few days will continue to hold through early Tuesday. Southwesterly flow aloft will continue to push some perturbations through Deep South Texas and with the continued weak overrunning will bring a continued to chance for drizzle, showers and maybe even a few thunderstorms through early evening. Tuesday, the Rex block begins to break down with drier conditions and more zonal flow returning to Deep South Texas.
Temperatures will remain on the cool side through the remainder of the forecast. Overnight lows will be in the upper 50s to lows 60s and highs for Tuesday will only reach the mid 60s to low 70s with plenty of cloud cover remaining.
Beach hazards continue into early Tuesday. A High Rip Current Risk and High Surf Advisory are in effect into tonight, with an accompanying Coastal Flood Statement through this evening. This will lead to narrow beaches through the afternoon, with already narrow beaches potentially becoming impassable. May need a Coastal Flood Advisory if observed water levels pop above guidance this afternoon or tidal run-up reaches the dunes. Some guidance follows with another round of tidal run-up Tuesday afternoon or evening, but remains confidence is low at this time.
LONG TERM
(Wednesday through next Monday)
Issued at 206 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024
Latest Model suite remain in good agreement and consistency with the mid-level trough tracking across the Desert SW/Southern Plains Wed- Thursday. At the surface, cyclogenesis takes place near the lower Texas coast Wednesday with the low tracking steadily northeast Thursday. Flat ridge settles over Texas through the weekend with fair and seasonal weather in the works. A large synoptic scale trough moves into the western third of the country Sunday and early next week which may result in increasing southerly winds
Increasing forcing and lift is expected later Wednesday and more so wednesday night as low level convergence from the developing surface low and frontogenesis combines with the approaching mid- level trough. Boundary layer warm advection and cooling aloft from the trough will quickly destabilize the atmosphere. Best rain chances are on tap for Wednesday night with a few stronger thunderstorms not out of equation. At this time, NBM pops have been bumped up to 30-50 percent while the GFS is 50-70 and ECMWF is 50-80 . QPF values are coming in at 0.10-0.50 inches which would only add to the beneficial rain as of late. The remainder of the forecast looks dry and fair with the exception to later Sunday and Monday when southerly winds return possibly becoming windy across the lower RGV.
Temperatures to remain seasonal with near to slighlty above mid-late March averages of 80-84 degree. Another surge of high pressure settles to our east over the weekend slowing down the warming trend with the latest model guidance holding temperatures in the 80s with no 90s showing up until next Monday. Lows look to remain comfortable also near to slightly above the seasonal normal of 58-64 degree.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 621 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024
The latest satellite and radar imagery depict overcast skies and only light drizzle/rain near KHRL and KBRO. Precipitation should come to an end within the next hour or so at the terminals, resulting in rain-free conditions through the remainder of the period. The latest observations report VFR across all of Deep South Texas, and these trends should continue through early Tuesday afternoon. High res guidance indicates there is a potential for MVFR ceilings after 18Z as low level southerly to southeasterly flow returns. Otherwise, breezy north winds will subside by 01-02Z this evening as the pressure gradient weakens and gradually shift to the east tomorrow.
MARINE
Issued at 206 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024
Tonight through Tuesday night...Hazardous marine conditions are anticipated through tonight due to elevated winds and seas behind a cold front that moved through on Sunday. Winds will decrease tonight, but seas will remain elevated for the offshore waters until early Tuesday afternoon. Small Craft advisories are currently in effect. By Tuesday night favorable conditions will return.
Wednesday through Monday...Low pressure to develop near the lower Texas coast later Wednesday tracking northeast across the western Gulf Thursday. Unsettled weather along with variable SE-E light winds are expected Wednesday turning northwest at light to moderate speeds as the low tracks northeast Thursday. Weak ridge settles to the east of coastal waters Friday and Weekend with moderate southeast winds and a moderate sea.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 62 69 63 73 / 10 10 10 20 HARLINGEN 59 71 59 75 / 10 10 0 20 MCALLEN 59 71 61 76 / 10 10 10 20 RIO GRANDE CITY 56 69 59 75 / 10 10 10 10 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 64 68 64 70 / 10 10 0 20 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 62 69 61 73 / 10 10 0 20
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...High Rip Current Risk through Tuesday morning for TXZ451-454-455.
until 1 AM CDT Tuesday for TXZ451-454-455.
High Surf Advisory until 7 AM CDT Tuesday for TXZ451-454-455.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM CDT Tuesday for GMZ130-132-135.
Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT Tuesday for GMZ150-155.
Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM CDT Tuesday for GMZ170-175.
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Brownsville TX 621 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024
New AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(Tonight through Tuesday night)
Issued at 206 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024
The forecast remains of track. The Rex block pattern that has been highlighted the past few days will continue to hold through early Tuesday. Southwesterly flow aloft will continue to push some perturbations through Deep South Texas and with the continued weak overrunning will bring a continued to chance for drizzle, showers and maybe even a few thunderstorms through early evening. Tuesday, the Rex block begins to break down with drier conditions and more zonal flow returning to Deep South Texas.
Temperatures will remain on the cool side through the remainder of the forecast. Overnight lows will be in the upper 50s to lows 60s and highs for Tuesday will only reach the mid 60s to low 70s with plenty of cloud cover remaining.
Beach hazards continue into early Tuesday. A High Rip Current Risk and High Surf Advisory are in effect into tonight, with an accompanying Coastal Flood Statement through this evening. This will lead to narrow beaches through the afternoon, with already narrow beaches potentially becoming impassable. May need a Coastal Flood Advisory if observed water levels pop above guidance this afternoon or tidal run-up reaches the dunes. Some guidance follows with another round of tidal run-up Tuesday afternoon or evening, but remains confidence is low at this time.
LONG TERM
(Wednesday through next Monday)
Issued at 206 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024
Latest Model suite remain in good agreement and consistency with the mid-level trough tracking across the Desert SW/Southern Plains Wed- Thursday. At the surface, cyclogenesis takes place near the lower Texas coast Wednesday with the low tracking steadily northeast Thursday. Flat ridge settles over Texas through the weekend with fair and seasonal weather in the works. A large synoptic scale trough moves into the western third of the country Sunday and early next week which may result in increasing southerly winds
Increasing forcing and lift is expected later Wednesday and more so wednesday night as low level convergence from the developing surface low and frontogenesis combines with the approaching mid- level trough. Boundary layer warm advection and cooling aloft from the trough will quickly destabilize the atmosphere. Best rain chances are on tap for Wednesday night with a few stronger thunderstorms not out of equation. At this time, NBM pops have been bumped up to 30-50 percent while the GFS is 50-70 and ECMWF is 50-80 . QPF values are coming in at 0.10-0.50 inches which would only add to the beneficial rain as of late. The remainder of the forecast looks dry and fair with the exception to later Sunday and Monday when southerly winds return possibly becoming windy across the lower RGV.
Temperatures to remain seasonal with near to slighlty above mid-late March averages of 80-84 degree. Another surge of high pressure settles to our east over the weekend slowing down the warming trend with the latest model guidance holding temperatures in the 80s with no 90s showing up until next Monday. Lows look to remain comfortable also near to slightly above the seasonal normal of 58-64 degree.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 621 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024
The latest satellite and radar imagery depict overcast skies and only light drizzle/rain near KHRL and KBRO. Precipitation should come to an end within the next hour or so at the terminals, resulting in rain-free conditions through the remainder of the period. The latest observations report VFR across all of Deep South Texas, and these trends should continue through early Tuesday afternoon. High res guidance indicates there is a potential for MVFR ceilings after 18Z as low level southerly to southeasterly flow returns. Otherwise, breezy north winds will subside by 01-02Z this evening as the pressure gradient weakens and gradually shift to the east tomorrow.
MARINE
Issued at 206 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024
Tonight through Tuesday night...Hazardous marine conditions are anticipated through tonight due to elevated winds and seas behind a cold front that moved through on Sunday. Winds will decrease tonight, but seas will remain elevated for the offshore waters until early Tuesday afternoon. Small Craft advisories are currently in effect. By Tuesday night favorable conditions will return.
Wednesday through Monday...Low pressure to develop near the lower Texas coast later Wednesday tracking northeast across the western Gulf Thursday. Unsettled weather along with variable SE-E light winds are expected Wednesday turning northwest at light to moderate speeds as the low tracks northeast Thursday. Weak ridge settles to the east of coastal waters Friday and Weekend with moderate southeast winds and a moderate sea.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 62 69 63 73 / 10 10 10 20 HARLINGEN 59 71 59 75 / 10 10 0 20 MCALLEN 59 71 61 76 / 10 10 10 20 RIO GRANDE CITY 56 69 59 75 / 10 10 10 10 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 64 68 64 70 / 10 10 0 20 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 62 69 61 73 / 10 10 0 20
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...High Rip Current Risk through Tuesday morning for TXZ451-454-455.
until 1 AM CDT Tuesday for TXZ451-454-455.
High Surf Advisory until 7 AM CDT Tuesday for TXZ451-454-455.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM CDT Tuesday for GMZ130-132-135.
Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT Tuesday for GMZ150-155.
Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM CDT Tuesday for GMZ170-175.
Airport Reports
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