Thursday, November15, 2018

Marine Weather and Tides
South Point, TX

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 5:35AMSunset 5:14PM Thursday November 15, 2018 1:57 AM CST (07:57 UTC) Moonrise 12:57PMMoonset 12:04AM Illumination 47% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 7 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near South Point , TX
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location: 12.21, -97.29     debug

Area Discussion for - Brownsville, TX
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Fxus64 kbro 150549 aaa
area forecast discussion... Updated
national weather service brownsville tx
1149 pm cst Wed nov 14 2018

Discussion Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

Aviation High pressure remains in control across deep south
texas withVFR conditions and clr skies. Light and variable winds
are expected through the TAF period, aside from a light seabreeze
by this afternoon for kbro and khrl.

Prev discussion issued 540 pm cst Wed nov 14 2018
discussion... Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

Aviation... High pressure controls local weather through the next
24 hours. L v winds continue tonight with clr skies. Clear skies
and l v winds continue for most of the day tomorrow, except for
some gradual shifting of the winds from the northeast at kbro and
khrl late tomorrow afternoon, but remaining still below 10 knots.

Prev discussion... Issued 303 pm cst Wed nov 14 2018
short term (now through Thursday night): cold and very dry surface
ridge settles over the rio grande valley tonight and along the texas
coast Thursday before shifting east Thursday night. The 12z sounding
indicated a very deep dry layer with mean relative humidity of less
15 percent and a near all time record of low precipitable water of
only 0.10 inches. This dry, cloudless, atmosphere and light winds
overnight will allow for optimum radiational cooling conditions.

Challenge remains how cold will it become and will freezing
temperatures occur. Latest model guidance continues to indicate
coldest temperatures in the east with slightly warmer, or above
freezing temperatures, in the west due to a light southwest to
west wind developing. Forecast continues to trend on the cooler
side of guidance with the near record dry atmosphere in play. A
light short duration freeze is possible in rural areas, but the
overall extent and areal coverage will not be enough to warrant a
freeze warning at this time. Can not rule out a few locations in
hidalgo and cameron county touching 32 degrees around sunrise
Thursday. An sps has been issued emphasizing the possible short
duration freeze tonight Thursday morning.

Much warmer conditions develop Thursday with the airmass rapidly
modifying and the ridge shift to the east. Still a very dry
atmosphere remains overhead with mean rh values from the surface to
500mb below 25 percent. This will allow for a rapid warming with
temperatures climbing into the mid 60s nearing 70 degrees across
the rio grande valley making for a rare 30-35 degree diurnal
range. As the ridge shifts east late tomorrow afternoon and night
winds to turn east to southeast with a slow increase in gulf
moisture. Temperatures by Friday morning will rebound 6 to 12
degrees with all locations remaining above 40 degrees.

Long term (Friday through Wednesday): broad zonal mid-level flow
will continue across much of the southern states with subsidence
and very dry air moving overhead. This will keep weather
conditions mild with gradually warming temperatures Friday through
much of the weekend. Dry air and light flow at the surface will
limit the moisture return flow, keeping afternoon conditions very
pleasant. Sunday afternoon dew points will finally rebound into
the mid 60s as a plume of moisture surges northward. An elongated
trough will also advance eastward into the central plains, which
will help push a cold front into deep south texas sometime late
Sunday night into early Monday. The model consensus is we will see
a cooler and wetter pattern once again with possible coastal
troughing developing behind the front, however some model
differences continue with regard to the strength of the CAA and
rain chances. The mex MOS guidance has trended cooler the last few
model runs, but the ece has been bouncing around a bit, but
remains on the cooler side. So, have dropped temps only a few
degrees here and there with a slight trend towards cooler weather.

Have kept pops mostly similar to the last forecast, ranging from
30 to 50% Sunday through Tuesday.

Marine (now through Thursday night): surface high pressure to settle
along the lower texas coast tonight expanding along the entire texas
coast Thursday before moving east Thursday night. Northerly winds to
steadily diminish with seas subsiding rapidly with small craft
advisories in place this afternoon being allow to expire at 6 pm.

Fine marine conditions are expected for all coastal water locations
Thursday and Thursday night with light offshore flow during the day
and light and variable conditions developing Thursday night.

Friday through Wednesday: as the surface ridging over the region
shifts eastward later this week, the surface flow along the lower
tx coastline will become light to moderate from the se. The pgf
will then start to strengthen somewhat late Sun with the approach
of the next cold front possibly pushing the marine conditions up
close to scec SCA levels Sun night through Monday.

Bro watches warnings advisories
Tx... None.

Gm... None.

This product is also available on the web at:
http: weather.Gov rgv
64 66

Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of SouthCentralPlains    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Brownsville, TX (2,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Brownsville, TX
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.