Tuesday, January22, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
South Point, TX

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:03AMSunset 5:41PM Tuesday January 22, 2019 6:06 AM CST (12:06 UTC) Moonrise 8:18PMMoonset 8:16AM Illumination 98% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near South Point , TX
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location: 12.21, -97.29     debug


Area Discussion for - Brownsville, TX
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Fxus64 kbro 221141 aaa
afdbro
area forecast discussion... Updated
national weather service brownsville tx
541 am cst Tue jan 22 2019

Discussion Updated for latest aviation discussions below.

Aviation Vfr conditions prevail through late tonight before a
cold front works through the valley, bringing MVFR ceilings from
west to east prior to daybreak Wednesday. The biggest concern
through the TAF period is gusty winds, with a wind advisory across
bro and hrl from mid morning through mid afternoon and gusts to
near 40 knots possible. Morning sounding and brownsville radar
vad profiles both show 50 knot winds between 2-6k feet.

Prev discussion issued 456 am cst Tue jan 22 2019
short term (now through Wednesday): the next trough has dropped
into the SW us and will deepen as it settles into the plains through
west texas and into northern mexico today. The pressure gradient
continues to strengthen, allowing stronger southerly winds to kick
up by late this morning and continue into this evening. Model
soundings and early morning vad wind profiles have consistently
shown 40+ knot winds above 2k feet. With a very warm day and plenty
of mixing expected, have hoisted a wind advisory for cameron and
willacy counties, extending north along coastal kenedy county. Gusty
winds are expected into hidalgo county, likely less frequent and
generally just under advisory criteria.

A strong cold front sweeps across south texas toward the gulf coast
overnight into Wednesday morning. Winds drop off before shifting
northerly and increasing behind the front into Wednesday afternoon.

The best chance of rain occurs with the front, mainly before
sunrise. Model soundings show pwat values near 1.5 inches across the
northeast with the frontal passage, allowing light to moderate rain
showers across the northern ranchlands dipping south along the
coast. Much of the rest of the CWA will remain dry, continuing fire
weather concerns behind the front as winds pick up mid to late
morning. Ongoing convection with the front is likely the best chance
for any thunder in our CWA with model soundings unfavorable for new
convective development. Have left isolated wording in, keeping it
mainly offshore.

Temperatures today with increased southerly winds should top off a
few degrees warmer than yesterday, into the upper 70s and low 80s,
well above normal for late january. Overnight, near normal lows
return with temperatures falling to the upper 40s and low 50s thanks
to lighter winds. Only slight warming is expected on Wednesday, with
strong northerly flow and increased cloud cover early keeping highs
generally in the mid to upper 50s. Recent model trends have been
warmer with each run, and a few locations far south and west may
reach into the low 60s. Fire weather concerns for Wednesday remain
elevated and will continue to be monitored, especially if stronger
winds stick around and temperatures warm further.

Long term (Wednesday night through Monday): the tale of the long
term and beyond will be an east pacific mid level ridge positioned
roughly along the western united states, and multiple short wave
troughs plunging south to the east of the ridge and over the western
conus, with underlying polar outbreaks. This will tend to keep
temperatures cooler than normal, barely able to warm to near normal
before the next system arrives. Initially, a Wednesday cold front
will leave colder weather over the CWA Wednesday night as high
pressure settles over the region. Overnight low temperatures will be
in the mid to upper 30s for most inland locations, under mostly
clear skies and with light winds. On Thursday, the high pressure
center will shift east toward the lower mississippi valley, allowing
a weak return flow to set up. High temps will be in the 60s to near
70. Thursday night and Friday may be a skosh warmer, but the air
mass won't have modified too much. East southeast winds will
strengthen by Saturday, resulting in convergence along the coast and
a chance of rain for the day. Temperatures will again inch a little
higher, with 40s and 50s Friday night and 60s to near 70 on
Saturday. A shortwave trough to the west will edge closer, and may
contribute to overall instability as it coincides with a surface
front where enhanced northeast winds will develop, also partly in
response to a coastal trough of low pressure. The trough will swing
overhead Saturday night into Sunday, helping to nudge the coastal
trough farther away from the area, along with the rain and winds.

Skies should clear through the day Sunday, with high temperatures in
the mid 60s. Conditions should improve further on Monday as the
overhead trough moves east and a dry northwest flow develops aloft.

South winds will pick up on Monday ahead of the next front due
Tuesday morning. The european, gfs, and canadian showed non-trivial
inter-model temperature anomalies at times, but a blend smoothed out
the extremes. That indicates less certainty, but in this instance
worst case situations would not appear to significantly impact
ongoing hazards.

Marine:
now through Wednesday: pressure gradient continues to strengthen
today as low pressure deepens across the plains and west texas.

Small craft advisory conditions persist across all coastal waters
into this evening with strong southerly winds picking up this
morning. A strong cold front on Wednesday morning shifts winds out
of the north and increases them to gale force. A gale watch is in
effect across all coastal waters Wednesday morning, and across
offshore gulf of mexico waters into Wednesday afternoon.

Wednesday night through Saturday night: fresh north winds and high
seas will linger Wednesday night in the wake of a cold front and as
high pressure settles over the lower texas coast. Winds and seas
will decrease to below small craft advisory conditions by Thursday,
and will then remain more modest through Friday night. Onshore winds
will strengthen on Saturday as high pressure centered over the lower
mississippi valley presses south over the gulf and tightens the
gradient. Winds will also back to east and then northeast by
Saturday night.

Fire weather... Elevated fire weather concerns continue for
Wednesday behind the cold front arriving through the mid morning
hours. Dewpoints behind the front dip into the low 20s and possibly
upper teens by early Wednesday afternoon. The strongest winds occur
late Wednesday morning into early Wednesday afternoon, favoring
eastern locations. North and eastern locations may see a quick
round of light to moderate rainfall along the front, otherwise,
most locations will remain dry. Conditions will continue to be
monitored and a red flag warning may be needed.

Bro watches warnings advisories
Tx... Wind advisory from 9 am this morning to 4 pm cst this afternoon
for txz254>257-351.

Gm... Gale watch from late tonight through Wednesday morning for
gmz130-132-135-150-155.

Small craft advisory for winds until 6 pm cst this evening for
gmz130-132-135.

Gale watch from late tonight through Wednesday afternoon for
gmz170-175.

Small craft advisory until 4 am cst Wednesday for gmz150-155-170-
175.

This product is also available on the web at:
http: weather.Gov rgv
56-hallman... Short term aviation
54-miller... Long term
69-farris... Upper air public service


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of SouthCentralPlains    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Brownsville, TX (7,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Brownsville, TX
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.