Friday, February22, 2019

Marine Weather and Tides
South Point, TX

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 5:57AMSunset 5:50PM Friday February 22, 2019 7:19 AM CST (13:19 UTC) Moonrise 9:55PMMoonset 9:23AM Illumination 90% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near South Point, TX
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location: 12.21, -97.29     debug

Area Discussion for - Brownsville, TX
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Fxus64 kbro 221144 aaa
area forecast discussion... Updated
national weather service brownsville tx
544 am cst Fri feb 22 2019

Discussion Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

Aviation Lifr conditions are prevailing at the aerodromes right
now, but an improvement is expected during the day today and tonight
as winds swing to out of the southeast to south and intensify.

Prev discussion issued 418 am cst Fri feb 22 2019
short term (today through Saturday): light to moderate fog is
prevailing across most of deep south texas and the rio grande valley
right now, with just enough wind and low cloudiness in place to
prevent the fog from becoming dense. Gradually dissipating weak
inverted surface troughiness will produce isolated to scattered
patches of light rain and drizzle today and tonight. Tomorrow, the
passage of a cold front through the bro cwfa is anticipated from
between sunrise and midday. Isolated showers, especially along and
east of the interstate 69e corridor, will accompany the frontal

Long term (Saturday night through Thursday): the weekend ends
fair and seasonably nice with a cool and mainly clear with high
clouds to start Sunday, followed by a comfortably dry afternoon
with winds veering to the northeast by afternoon which should
bring fair weather cumulus underneath the cirrus... But not enough
to put much of a damper on temperatures. Leaned a little toward
the slightly cooler ECMWF for Sunday which is similar to the prior
forecast given the somewhat chilly start.

For Sunday night through Monday night... Models in good agreement
on zonal flow aloft and a steady but light to moderate easterly
flow near the surface, which should keep temperatures a hair above
seasonable levels. The easterly surface flow brings more cloud
cover, and combines with a quick moving short wave aloft to bring
modest rain chances in the form of light showers into Monday

Models differ a bit on Tuesday with the handling of embedded weak
short waves in the zonal 500 mb flow. ECMWF has a slightly more
amplified trough ridge pattern across the southwest u.S. And
eastern pacific, with downstream northwest flow locking in a weak
surface high across central texas. GFS maintains a broader west-
southwest flow aloft and has no such northwest flow aloft,
allowing a light to moderate south southeast surface flow with
more notable warming. Five days out this is a difficult call to
say the least, so maintained a rare blend with east-southeast
surface flow and only modest warming... In line with the prior
forecast. This blend continues a pessimistic sky and general
weather forecast with periodic showers... But at least temperatures
will hang close to seasonal daytime levels (mid to upper 70s)
while mornings will be about 5-7 degrees above normal (lower to
mid 60s).

Both global models come into better agreement for Wednesday, with
the ECMWF holding into a bit more deeper moisture as wavy front
only slides briefly northward while the GFS continues light
southerly flow. A slightly more robust 500 mb trough digs into
central texas by Thursday, dragging a slightly more significant
front through south texas along with a better chance for rain.

One situation to keep an eye on is the potential for tidal run-up
toward the dunes Monday through Tuesday or perhaps a bit longer,
especially if the ECMWF is more in line with reality as prolonged
easterly fetch and predicted tidal ranges increase. Something to
keep an eye on as we get deeper into next week... So stay tuned.

Rip currents will remain in the moderate to high range for much of
the period.

Fire weather: moderate winds a few feet above ground level and a
rapid influx of dry air with corresponding lower relative
humidity percentages will lead to a heightened and more favorable
situation for wildfire activity Saturday afternoon. However, red
flag warning criteria are not expected to be met and the situation
will likely be covered with a fire danger statement. Stay tuned as
the situation could change over the next 24 hours.

Marine... Now through Saturday: buoy 42020 reported east-
northeast winds around 6 knots with seas slightly under 4 feet
with a period of 7 seconds at 250 cst 850 utc. Increasing winds
and building seas are expected to occur in advance of, and behind,
the Saturday morning passage of a modest cold front. Although
small craft advisory is not anticipated to be needed in
association with the approach and passage of the front, small
craft exercise caution is likely to be needed tonight through
Saturday, especially for the gulf of mexico waters from 0 to 60
nautical miles offshore. With winds increasing from the southeast
to south along the lower texas tonight, sea fog is likely and will
need to be monitored for any indication that it is dense.

Saturday night through Wednesday night: seas will build a little
bit and swell direction will veer from northeast to east Sunday
and continue into Monday. Wavewatch currently carrying a broad
brush 4-6 feet for the period, but stronger east northeast winds
in the central gulf could push higher waves up to 7 feet or
perhaps more by Monday which could continue into Tuesday and
perhaps beyond... Mainly because broad sprawling high pressure
stretching from the mississippi through the ohio valley gets
reinforced... And the long east northeast fetch never quite goes
away. The ECMWF has the more pronounced solution here... And would
not surprise if we needed to hoist small craft for seas advisories
at some point Monday through Tuesday and perhaps into Wednesday.

Bro watches warnings advisories None.

This product is also available on the web at:
http: weather.Gov rgv

Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Brownsville, TX (8,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Brownsville, TX
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.