Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Ponce, PR
March 19, 2024 7:36 AM AST (11:36 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 6:29 AM Sunset 6:38 PM Moonrise 2:11 PM Moonset 3:00 AM |
AMZ735 Coastal Waters Of Southern Puerto Rico Out 10 Nm- 400 Am Ast Tue Mar 19 2024
Today - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet with occasional seas around 5 feet. Dominant period 6 seconds.
Tonight - East winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet with occasional seas around 5 feet. Dominant period 6 seconds. Isolated showers.
Wednesday - East winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet with occasional seas around 5 feet. Dominant period 6 seconds. Isolated showers.
Wednesday night - East winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 3 feet. Dominant period 6 seconds. Isolated showers.
Thursday - East winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 3 feet. Dominant period 7 seconds, increasing to 10 seconds. Isolated showers.
Friday - East winds 15 to 20 knots with gusts up to 30 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet with occasional seas around 5 feet. Dominant period 7 seconds. Isolated showers.
Saturday - East winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas up to 6 feet. Dominant period 6 seconds. Isolated showers.
AMZ700 400 Am Ast Tue Mar 19 2024
Synopsis for puerto rico and the uS. Virgin islands waters - . Winds are expected to diminish today as the surface high pressure moves eastward over the central atlantic. This will result in subsiding seas and calm conditions across the local waters. Winds will once again increase by the end of the workweek into the weekend as a strong low pressure system develops over western atlantic. This will promote moderate to fresh trade winds, resulting in choppy seas.
Area Discussion for - San Juan, PR
  (hide/show)  HelpNOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
FXCA62 TJSJ 190827 CCA AFDSJU
Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED National Weather Service San Juan PR 427 AM AST Tue Mar 19 2024
SYNOPSIS
Issued at 406 AM AST Tue Mar 19 2024
Today, predominantly clear skies and hot conditions are expected across the islands. Remnants from a previous frontal boundary will promote an advective weather pattern late tomorrow and Thursday, potentially bringing some showers to the area. Furthermore, a deep-layered trough and its associated frontal boundary could lead to an uptick in shower and thunderstorm activity early next week extending into midweek.
SHORT TERM
Today through Thursday...
Overall Mostly clear skies prevailed overnight across the region with only a few brief showers noted over the offshore regional waters but none reaching the islands at this time. Minimum low temperatures were in the low to mid 70s along the coastal areas and in the low to mid 60s in higher elevations and valleys.Winds were calm to light and variable.
A surface high pressure anchored across the northeast Atlantic and extending southwest into the northeast Caribbean and a cold front and associated frontal boundary crossing the west Atlantic will aid in maintaining a very light south southeasterly wind flow today through Wednesday. For the rest of the morning an overall dry and stable airmass will prevail with little or no shower activity expected. Weak ridging aloft will remain in place into Wednesday but will slightly erode by late Wednesday through Thursday as a short wave trough is forecast to cross the west and central Atlantic.
For today Mostly fair weather skies and hot conditions are forecast across the islands. Limited to no shower activity is expected as an overall dry airmass will remain in place at least until early Wednesday. Therefore expect warmer than normal temperatures to continue especially along the northern portions of Puerto Rico and the island of St Croix, with maximum heat indices again reaching the 100s. Main impacts for today and Wednesday should be mainly the warmer temperatures with mostly localized and brief isolated to scattered showers if any possible during the afternoon hours.
By late Wednesday and through Thursday, a gradual change in the weather pattern is forecast as a weakening cold front and associated frontal boundary will move into the southwest Atlantic and approach the region from the west. This will induce a weak surface trough across the region and slowly increase low level moisture convergence due to the combination of remnant moisture from old frontal boundaries and that of the approaching frontal boundary. In addition as mentioned the upper level ridging is to erode, as the short wave trough crosses the region. Consequently, expect a better chance for more advective moisture with passing morning showers and increased probability for afternoon convection across the east interior, central and west sections of Puerto Rico. Activity for the remaining islands including the U.S. Virgin Islands should be limited to mostly isolated showers and focused mainly on the west-end and downwind of the islands over the coastal waters. On Thursday, some localized afternoon shower activity may lead to ponding of water on roads and in poor drainage areas due to moderate to locally heavy rains over western Puerto Rico.
LONG TERM
Friday through Tuesday...
A seasonally typical weather pattern, characterized by patches of moisture streaming through the area from time to time, will persist at least through early in the weekend. A weak ridge will be present at the mid and upper levels, inhibiting significant shower development, particularly during the afternoons. However, a deep-layered trough and associated frontal boundary are expected to slowly approach the region from the northwest. From Sunday through Tuesday, there will be moisture convergence over the area as the trough deepens, drawing tropical moisture into the region.
On Monday, with the approach of the deep-layered trough, a 70-80 knot jet is expected to affect the area at around 200 hPa, lasting into midweek, potentially providing increased ventilation and supporting additional convective potential.
Discrepancies arise as the latest GFS model now indicates the deep- layered trough and frontal boundary pushing toward, if not over, the islands by late Tuesday. Previous model cycles had these features stalling north of the CWA In contrast, ECMWF suggests a weaker solution remaining north/northeast of the islands.
Surface and low-level winds will begin the forecast period generally from the east to east-northeast, gradually becoming more southeasterly, and then tending toward southerly by Monday.
Depending on whether or not the frontal boundary actually crosses the area, winds may shift again, likely becoming more northerly. As winds shift, wind speeds are expected to decrease, potentially enhancing rainfall accumulations due to slow-moving storms over the area.
Showers are expected to follow a typical pattern for the first part of the forecast period. Friday is anticipated to be very seasonal, with Saturday being one of the driest days during this period. An increase in shower activity is likely from late Sunday through Tuesday due to moisture convergence, the approaching deep-layered trough, and the influence of the upper-level jet.
Forecast confidence is normal to below normal. Uncertainties continue to be largely based on the moisture plume- both the timing and strength of the deep-layered trough and associated frontal boundary. The likelihood of frontal passage remains uncertain, and its impact on regional conditions is expected to be felt for much of the first half of next week.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 406 AM AST Tue Mar 19 2024
VFR conds at all terminals durg prd. L/LVL wnds fm SE 10-15 KTS BLO FL080 backing w/height bcmg lgt/vrb up to FL150, then W-NW ABV w/max wnd btw 60-70 kts btw FL350-FL400. SFC wnd calm to lgt/vrb, bcmg fm SE 5-15 with sea breeze variations aft 19/14Z
SCT lyrs nr FL025
FL050.SKC abv. Isold SHRA en route btw islands durg prd. No sig operational wx impacts attm.
MARINE
Issued at 406 AM AST Tue Mar 19 2024
Winds are expected to diminish today as the surface high-pressure moves eastward over the central Atlantic. This will result in subsiding seas and calm conditions across the local waters. Winds will once again increase by the end of the workweek into the weekend as a strong low-pressure system develops over the western Atlantic.
This will promote moderate to fresh trade winds, resulting in choppy seas.
BEACH FORECAST
Issued at 406 AM AST Tue Mar 19 2024
While winds are expected to subside today, breezy conditions will persist, contributing to a moderate rip current risk along the northern beaches of Puerto Rico, Culebra, and the U.S. Virgin Islands. However, the protected waters of west and southern Puerto Rico and Vieques will experience a low risk. This moderate rip current risk is anticipated to continue through tonight, with the likelihood of rip currents diminishing to low tomorrow across all local beaches.
SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PR...None.
VI...None.
AM...None.
Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED National Weather Service San Juan PR 427 AM AST Tue Mar 19 2024
SYNOPSIS
Issued at 406 AM AST Tue Mar 19 2024
Today, predominantly clear skies and hot conditions are expected across the islands. Remnants from a previous frontal boundary will promote an advective weather pattern late tomorrow and Thursday, potentially bringing some showers to the area. Furthermore, a deep-layered trough and its associated frontal boundary could lead to an uptick in shower and thunderstorm activity early next week extending into midweek.
SHORT TERM
Today through Thursday...
Overall Mostly clear skies prevailed overnight across the region with only a few brief showers noted over the offshore regional waters but none reaching the islands at this time. Minimum low temperatures were in the low to mid 70s along the coastal areas and in the low to mid 60s in higher elevations and valleys.Winds were calm to light and variable.
A surface high pressure anchored across the northeast Atlantic and extending southwest into the northeast Caribbean and a cold front and associated frontal boundary crossing the west Atlantic will aid in maintaining a very light south southeasterly wind flow today through Wednesday. For the rest of the morning an overall dry and stable airmass will prevail with little or no shower activity expected. Weak ridging aloft will remain in place into Wednesday but will slightly erode by late Wednesday through Thursday as a short wave trough is forecast to cross the west and central Atlantic.
For today Mostly fair weather skies and hot conditions are forecast across the islands. Limited to no shower activity is expected as an overall dry airmass will remain in place at least until early Wednesday. Therefore expect warmer than normal temperatures to continue especially along the northern portions of Puerto Rico and the island of St Croix, with maximum heat indices again reaching the 100s. Main impacts for today and Wednesday should be mainly the warmer temperatures with mostly localized and brief isolated to scattered showers if any possible during the afternoon hours.
By late Wednesday and through Thursday, a gradual change in the weather pattern is forecast as a weakening cold front and associated frontal boundary will move into the southwest Atlantic and approach the region from the west. This will induce a weak surface trough across the region and slowly increase low level moisture convergence due to the combination of remnant moisture from old frontal boundaries and that of the approaching frontal boundary. In addition as mentioned the upper level ridging is to erode, as the short wave trough crosses the region. Consequently, expect a better chance for more advective moisture with passing morning showers and increased probability for afternoon convection across the east interior, central and west sections of Puerto Rico. Activity for the remaining islands including the U.S. Virgin Islands should be limited to mostly isolated showers and focused mainly on the west-end and downwind of the islands over the coastal waters. On Thursday, some localized afternoon shower activity may lead to ponding of water on roads and in poor drainage areas due to moderate to locally heavy rains over western Puerto Rico.
LONG TERM
Friday through Tuesday...
A seasonally typical weather pattern, characterized by patches of moisture streaming through the area from time to time, will persist at least through early in the weekend. A weak ridge will be present at the mid and upper levels, inhibiting significant shower development, particularly during the afternoons. However, a deep-layered trough and associated frontal boundary are expected to slowly approach the region from the northwest. From Sunday through Tuesday, there will be moisture convergence over the area as the trough deepens, drawing tropical moisture into the region.
On Monday, with the approach of the deep-layered trough, a 70-80 knot jet is expected to affect the area at around 200 hPa, lasting into midweek, potentially providing increased ventilation and supporting additional convective potential.
Discrepancies arise as the latest GFS model now indicates the deep- layered trough and frontal boundary pushing toward, if not over, the islands by late Tuesday. Previous model cycles had these features stalling north of the CWA In contrast, ECMWF suggests a weaker solution remaining north/northeast of the islands.
Surface and low-level winds will begin the forecast period generally from the east to east-northeast, gradually becoming more southeasterly, and then tending toward southerly by Monday.
Depending on whether or not the frontal boundary actually crosses the area, winds may shift again, likely becoming more northerly. As winds shift, wind speeds are expected to decrease, potentially enhancing rainfall accumulations due to slow-moving storms over the area.
Showers are expected to follow a typical pattern for the first part of the forecast period. Friday is anticipated to be very seasonal, with Saturday being one of the driest days during this period. An increase in shower activity is likely from late Sunday through Tuesday due to moisture convergence, the approaching deep-layered trough, and the influence of the upper-level jet.
Forecast confidence is normal to below normal. Uncertainties continue to be largely based on the moisture plume- both the timing and strength of the deep-layered trough and associated frontal boundary. The likelihood of frontal passage remains uncertain, and its impact on regional conditions is expected to be felt for much of the first half of next week.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 406 AM AST Tue Mar 19 2024
VFR conds at all terminals durg prd. L/LVL wnds fm SE 10-15 KTS BLO FL080 backing w/height bcmg lgt/vrb up to FL150, then W-NW ABV w/max wnd btw 60-70 kts btw FL350-FL400. SFC wnd calm to lgt/vrb, bcmg fm SE 5-15 with sea breeze variations aft 19/14Z
SCT lyrs nr FL025
FL050.SKC abv. Isold SHRA en route btw islands durg prd. No sig operational wx impacts attm.
MARINE
Issued at 406 AM AST Tue Mar 19 2024
Winds are expected to diminish today as the surface high-pressure moves eastward over the central Atlantic. This will result in subsiding seas and calm conditions across the local waters. Winds will once again increase by the end of the workweek into the weekend as a strong low-pressure system develops over the western Atlantic.
This will promote moderate to fresh trade winds, resulting in choppy seas.
BEACH FORECAST
Issued at 406 AM AST Tue Mar 19 2024
While winds are expected to subside today, breezy conditions will persist, contributing to a moderate rip current risk along the northern beaches of Puerto Rico, Culebra, and the U.S. Virgin Islands. However, the protected waters of west and southern Puerto Rico and Vieques will experience a low risk. This moderate rip current risk is anticipated to continue through tonight, with the likelihood of rip currents diminishing to low tomorrow across all local beaches.
SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PR...None.
VI...None.
AM...None.
Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air Temp | Water Temp | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
42085 - Southeast of Ponce, PR | 8 mi | 37 min | NE 9.7G | 80°F | 82°F | 4 ft | 29.96 | |
MGIP4 - 9759110 - Magueyes Islands, PR | 23 mi | 49 min | ENE 4.1G | 78°F | 82°F | 29.98 | ||
MGZP4 - 9759394 - Mayaguez, PR | 33 mi | 49 min | ESE 5.1G | 73°F | 83°F | 29.95 | ||
41121 | 36 mi | 41 min | 81°F | 3 ft | ||||
SJNP4 - 9755371 - San Juan, PR | 43 mi | 49 min | 79°F | 82°F | 29.95 | |||
41053 - San Juan, PR | 44 mi | 37 min | SE 1.9G | 79°F | 80°F | 3 ft | 29.96 | |
41115 - Rincon, Puerto Rico (181) | 45 mi | 41 min | 81°F | 2 ft |
toggle option: (graph/table)
Airport Reports
EDIT (hide/show)  Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
TJPS MERCEDITA,PR | 4 sm | 21 min | var 03 | 10 sm | Partly Cloudy | 79°F | 72°F | 79% | 29.98 |
Playa de Ponce
Click for Map
Tue -- 02:59 AM AST Moonset
Tue -- 06:30 AM AST Sunrise
Tue -- 08:27 AM AST 0.73 feet High Tide
Tue -- 10:35 AM AST 0.61 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 02:10 PM AST Moonrise
Tue -- 03:29 PM AST 0.62 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:37 PM AST Sunset
Tue -- 08:50 PM AST -0.11 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Tue -- 02:59 AM AST Moonset
Tue -- 06:30 AM AST Sunrise
Tue -- 08:27 AM AST 0.73 feet High Tide
Tue -- 10:35 AM AST 0.61 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 02:10 PM AST Moonrise
Tue -- 03:29 PM AST 0.62 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:37 PM AST Sunset
Tue -- 08:50 PM AST -0.11 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Playa de Ponce, Puerto Rico, Tide feet
12 am |
0.1 |
1 am |
0.2 |
2 am |
0.3 |
3 am |
0.5 |
4 am |
0.6 |
5 am |
0.6 |
6 am |
0.7 |
7 am |
0.7 |
8 am |
0.7 |
9 am |
0.7 |
10 am |
0.6 |
11 am |
0.6 |
12 pm |
0.6 |
1 pm |
0.6 |
2 pm |
0.6 |
3 pm |
0.6 |
4 pm |
0.6 |
5 pm |
0.5 |
6 pm |
0.3 |
7 pm |
0.1 |
8 pm |
-0.1 |
9 pm |
-0.1 |
10 pm |
-0.1 |
11 pm |
-0 |
Playa Cortada
Click for Map
Tue -- 02:59 AM AST Moonset
Tue -- 06:30 AM AST Sunrise
Tue -- 08:44 AM AST 0.73 feet High Tide
Tue -- 10:11 AM AST 0.61 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 02:10 PM AST Moonrise
Tue -- 03:46 PM AST 0.62 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:36 PM AST Sunset
Tue -- 08:26 PM AST -0.11 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Tue -- 02:59 AM AST Moonset
Tue -- 06:30 AM AST Sunrise
Tue -- 08:44 AM AST 0.73 feet High Tide
Tue -- 10:11 AM AST 0.61 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 02:10 PM AST Moonrise
Tue -- 03:46 PM AST 0.62 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:36 PM AST Sunset
Tue -- 08:26 PM AST -0.11 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Playa Cortada, Puerto Rico, Tide feet
12 am |
0.1 |
1 am |
0.2 |
2 am |
0.3 |
3 am |
0.5 |
4 am |
0.5 |
5 am |
0.6 |
6 am |
0.7 |
7 am |
0.7 |
8 am |
0.7 |
9 am |
0.7 |
10 am |
0.6 |
11 am |
0.6 |
12 pm |
0.6 |
1 pm |
0.6 |
2 pm |
0.6 |
3 pm |
0.6 |
4 pm |
0.6 |
5 pm |
0.5 |
6 pm |
0.3 |
7 pm |
0.1 |
8 pm |
-0.1 |
9 pm |
-0.1 |
10 pm |
-0.1 |
11 pm |
-0 |
Virgin,Islands/San,Juan/Cayey,PR
NOTICE: Some pages have affiliate links to Amazon. As an Amazon Associate, I earn from qualifying purchases. Please read website Cookie, Privacy, and Disclamers by clicking HERE. To contact me click HERE. For my YouTube page click HERE