Thursday, November15, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Ponce, PR

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:31AMSunset 5:50PM Thursday November 15, 2018 4:37 PM AST (20:37 UTC) Moonrise 12:58PMMoonset 12:00AM Illumination 53% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 8 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ735 Coastal Waters Of Southern Puerto Rico Out 10 Nm- 428 Pm Ast Thu Nov 15 2018
.small craft should exercise caution...
Tonight..East winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 4 to 6 feet with occasional seas up to 8 feet. Dominant period 7 seconds. Scattered showers and isolated Thunderstorms.
Friday..East winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 4 to 6 feet with occasional seas up to 8 feet. Dominant period 7 seconds. Numerous showers through the day. Scattered Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Friday night..East winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 4 to 6 feet with occasional seas up to 8 feet. Dominant period 7 seconds. Scattered showers and isolated Thunderstorms.
Saturday..East winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 4 to 6 feet with occasional seas up to 8 feet. Dominant period 7 seconds. Scattered showers through the day. Isolated Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Saturday night..East winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 4 to 6 feet with occasional seas up to 8 feet. Dominant period 7 seconds. Isolated showers.
Sunday..East winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 4 to 6 feet with occasional seas up to 8 feet. Dominant period 7 seconds. Isolated showers.
Monday..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas up to 6 feet. Dominant period 8 seconds. Scattered showers.
Tuesday..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet with occasional seas up to 5 feet. Dominant period 8 seconds. Isolated showers.
AMZ700 428 Pm Ast Thu Nov 15 2018
Synopsis for puerto rico and the uS. Virgin islands waters... A surface high pressure over the central atlantic will continue to generate moderate to fresh trade winds during the next few days. These brisk trade winds will maintain hazardous marine conditions through the weekend.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Ponce, PR
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location: 17.97, -66.62     debug


Area Discussion for - San Juan, PR
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Fxca62 tjsj 151541
afdsju
area forecast discussion
national weather service san juan pr
1141 am ast Thu nov 15 2018

Update
Minor changes were made to adjust the forecast with the expected
weather conditions. Although a drier air mass will filter from the
east through the rest of the day, the trailing moisture will
bring scattered to numerous showers across the islands today. The
doppler radar detected showers across st croix and the surrounding
waters. This activity is expected to diminish across the virgin
islands through the afternoon hours. Clouds and showers are now
forming across the southern, interior, eastern and northern
sections of puerto rico. However, is expected to increase in
frequency and intensity across the puerto rico through this
evening. Any additional heavy rains over already saturated soils
will likely result in urban and small stream flooding, flash
flooding and mudslides in areas of steep terrain today across
puerto rico.

A dry air mass will encompass the islands to result in mostly
clear skies with little to no shower activity overnight. By Friday
morning, another surge of moisture will bring shower activity
across the u.S. Virgin islands and the east half portion of puerto
rico. Followed by afternoon convection along and to the west of
the cordillera central.

Aviation
Shra will affect tjps tjsj tjbq. Shra should diminish across usvi
terminals through this evening. But, mount obsc is fcst along pr
through the afternoon hours. Shra tsra will impact tjbq and the
vicinity of tjps tjmz tjsj btwn 15 16-22z. Shra will diminish over
the flying area aft 15 23z but some -shra shra will return to the
usvi ERN pr and the leeward islands aft 16 08z. Sfc winds will be
ese at 12 to 18 knots with some sea breeze influences becoming
calm to light and variable after 15 23z.

Marine
No changes was made to the inherited marine forecast. Choppy seas
continues across the atlantic and caribbean offshore waters as
well as across the caribbean passages. As a result small craft
advisories will continue across most of the local waters through
the upcoming weekend. Mariner can expect seas between 5 and 8 feet
and easterly winds between 15 and 20 knots but locally higher in
and around shower and thunderstorm activity. Seas are expected
between 2 and 5 feet across the west, and southern coastal areas
of puerto rico.

Beach goers should visit the surf zone forecast (srfsju and
cfwsju) for additional information about the risk of rip currents.

A high risk of rip currents continue for the north and east
facing beaches of puerto rico and culebra as well as the east
coast beaches of st. Croix.

Prev discussion issued 607 am ast Thu nov 15 2018
synopsis... Drier air mass will move over the local islands today.

As a result, the shower and thunderstorm coverage should be less
than yesterday. Another surge of moisture will increase the
potential for showers and thunderstorms again during the weekend.

Short term... Today through Saturday...

an intense surface low (947 mb) east of newfoundland will push a
1024 mb high to 1000 miles northeast of punta cana or 900 miles from
san juan, puerto rico. This will keep surface and low-level flow
mostly east with a weak southerly component and serve to bring bands
of moisture out of the western tropical atlantic separated by some
very dry patches of air.

The mimic product shows the first dry band now pushing across the
northern end of the leeward islands into the u.S. Virgin islands.

Currently the GFS has 850 mb dry pocket about 200 miles southeast
of the driest air at 700 mb making exact timing more difficult.

But using precipitable water as a proxy, expect drying to begin
around 8 am ast over the u.S. Virgin islands and noon on the east
coast of puerto rico. This drier air will take its greatest toll
on convection between 8-10 kft even though the GFS suggests that
convection should be able to rise unimpeded to 44 kft. The drier
layer should also mean an early end to convection in the western
half of puerto rico this afternoon as well. Before this happens
though, heavy showers and isolated thunderstorms should develop
over western puerto rico. Although the threat of flash flooding is
now considered over, and the flash flood watch has been
cancelled, urban and small stream flooding is expected in western
puerto rico and mudslides cannot be ruled out.

A second band of moisture moves through the area between 16 00-12z
and another round of showers will cross mainly eastern puerto
rico in the morning hours on Friday. Friday afternoon also looks
very wet with rainfall totals exceeding two inches in some areas.

The moisture that continues to flow northwest into puerto rico
will peak again just after noon on Saturday for yet another round
of heavy rainfall for puerto rico. Drying begins immediately
afterwards.

Influence from the upper level trough and instability over the area
will gradually wane through the period, but convection Thursday
night (where it forms), Friday night and Saturday could gain a weak
boost due to upper level divergence.

Long term... Sunday through Wednesday...

mid level ridge will build and dominate the local weather
conditions Sunday into early next week. At upper levels, a tutt
low will establish just northeast of the leeward islands. Both
features favors the erosion of mid-upper level moisture across
the local region. This will likely result in fair weather
conditions across puerto rico and the u.S. Virgin islands.

However, trade wind showers will continue to reach portions of the
u.S. Virgin islands and eastern puerto rico at times but the
frequency will be low. With mid level temperatures rising due to
the presence of the ridge, only a couple of thunderstorms will
form over western puerto rico each afternoon. This typical
pattern will likely persist through most of next week.

Aviation... Bands of moisture will pass through the area, but drier air is
expected to improve flying conditions today compared to the last
several days.VFR conditions are expected to prevail until
shra isold tsra dvlp over WRN and interior pr aft 15 16z with mtn
obscurations. Shra will dissipate over these area aft 15 22z but
some shra will return to the usvi ERN pr and the leeward islands aft
16 00z. Sfc winds will be ese at 12 to 18 knots with some sea breeze
influences. MAX winds wnw 30 kt at fl410 by 16 06z otherwise maximum
winds ese 20-25 kt btwn fl030-090.

Marine... Breezy conditions have resulted in choppy conditions
across most of the regional waters. As a result, small craft
advisories are in effect for most of the local waters through at
least Saturday. Mariners can expected seas of 6-8 feet with
occasional up to 10 feet across the offshore waters and between
3-6 feet elsewhere. Also, a high risk of rip currents continue for
the north facing beaches of puerto rico and culebra as well as
the east coast beaches of st. Croix.

Preliminary point temps pops
Sju 76 87 77 87 50 50 60 60
stt 79 85 78 86 50 70 50 50

Sju watches warnings advisories
Pr... High rip current risk until 6 pm ast this evening for central
interior-culebra-northeast-san juan and vicinity-southeast.

High rip current risk from Friday morning through Friday
afternoon for central interior-northeast-san juan and
vicinity-southeast-vieques.

High rip current risk through Friday afternoon for north central-
northwest-western interior.

Vi... High rip current risk through Friday afternoon for st croix.

Small craft advisory from 8 am Friday to 6 am ast Saturday for
st.Thomas... St. John... And adjacent islands.

Am... High rip current risk until 6 pm ast this evening for coastal
waters of southern puerto rico out 10 nm.

High rip current risk from Friday morning through Friday
afternoon for coastal waters of southern puerto rico out 10
nm.

Small craft advisory until 8 pm ast Saturday for anegada passage
southward to 17n-caribbean waters of puerto rico from 10 nm
to 17n.

Small craft advisory until 8 am ast Friday for coastal waters of
northern puerto rico out 10 nm.

Small craft advisory until 8 am ast Sunday for atlantic waters
of puerto rico and usvi from 10 nm to 19.5n.

Small craft advisory until 6 am ast Saturday for coastal waters
of northern usvi and culebra out 10 nm-coastal waters of
southern usvi vieques and eastern puerto rico out 10 nm.

Small craft advisory until 8 pm ast Friday for mona passage
southward to 17n.

Update... Cam
aviation... Aviation


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
42085 - Southeast of Ponce, PR 9 mi97 min E 19 G 23 81°F 83°F1013 hPa (-1.4)
JOXP4 - Jobos Bay Reserve, Puerto Rico 21 mi52 min E 5.1 1016 hPa
MGIP4 - 9759110 - Magueyes Islands, PR 23 mi37 min SE 5.1 G 8.9 81°F 82°F1014 hPa (-0.4)
MGZP4 - 9759394 - Mayaguez, PR 33 mi37 min 79°F 84°F1013.7 hPa (-0.4)
AROP4 - 9757809 - Arecibo, PR 36 mi37 min SE 11 G 15
YABP4 - 9754228 - Yabucoa Harbor, PR 42 mi37 min 77°F 74°F
SJNP4 - 9755371 - San Juan, PR 43 mi37 min ESE 8 G 11 83°F1014.4 hPa (-0.0)
PTRP4 43 mi47 min E 5.1 G 6 76°F
41053 - San Juan, PR 44 mi37 min S 9.7 G 14 79°F 84°F4 ft1013.4 hPa (-0.4)
41115 - Rincon, Puerto Rico (181) 45 mi37 min 83°F4 ft

Wind History for Penuelas (Punta Guayanilla), PR
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure

Wind History from JPS (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr--------------------------------------E5NE5NE5--Calm
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Tide / Current Tables for Playa de Ponce, Puerto Rico
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Playa de Ponce
Click for Map
Thu -- 04:49 AM AST     0.28 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:32 AM AST     Sunrise
Thu -- 10:54 AM AST     First Quarter
Thu -- 12:57 PM AST     Moonrise
Thu -- 04:48 PM AST     0.85 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:49 PM AST     Sunset
Thu -- 09:16 PM AST     0.61 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.60.60.50.40.30.30.30.30.30.40.50.50.60.70.80.80.80.80.80.70.60.60.60.6

Tide / Current Tables for Playa Cortada, Puerto Rico
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Playa Cortada
Click for Map
Thu -- 04:25 AM AST     0.28 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:31 AM AST     Sunrise
Thu -- 10:54 AM AST     First Quarter
Thu -- 12:56 PM AST     Moonrise
Thu -- 05:05 PM AST     0.85 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:48 PM AST     Sunset
Thu -- 08:52 PM AST     0.61 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.