Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Stock Island, FL
March 19, 2024 9:43 AM EDT (13:43 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 7:30 AM Sunset 7:39 PM Moonrise 1:59 PM Moonset 3:18 AM |
GMZ044 Hawk Channel From West End Of Seven Mile Bridge To Halfmoon Shoal Out To The Reef- 633 Am Edt Tue Mar 19 2024
updated to increase winds this morning
.small craft advisory in effect - .
Today - North winds 25 to 30 knots with gusts around 35 knots, becoming northeast 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet, except 3 to 4 feet west of cosgrove shoal light. NEarshore waters extremely rough, becoming a light to moderate chop. Isolated showers.
Tonight - Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas subsiding to 1 to 3 feet. NEarshore waters a light to moderate chop.
Wednesday - Northeast to east winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. NEarshore waters a light to moderate chop.
Wednesday night - East winds near 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. NEarshore waters a light chop.
Thursday - East winds 10 to 15 knots, increasing to 15 to 20 knots in the afternoon. Seas building to 2 to 3 feet. NEarshore waters a light to moderate chop, becoming choppy. Isolated showers.
Thursday night - East to southeast winds 15 to 20 knots, increasing to 20 to 25 knots. Seas building to 3 to 5 feet. NEarshore waters choppy, becoming very rough. Scattered showers and isolated Thunderstorms.
Friday - Southeast winds 20 to 25 knots, decreasing to 15 to 20 knots. Seas 4 to 5 feet, subsiding to 2 to 4 feet. NEarshore waters very rough, becoming choppy. Numerous showers and isolated Thunderstorms.
Friday night - South winds near 15 knots, becoming south to southwest. Seas 2 to 3 feet. NEarshore waters a moderate chop. Scattered showers and isolated Thunderstorms.
Saturday - Southwest winds near 15 knots, becoming west to northwest in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 feet. NEarshore waters a moderate chop. Scattered showers and isolated Thunderstorms.
Saturday night - Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet, except 3 to 4 feet west of cosgrove shoal light. NEarshore waters choppy. Isolated showers and Thunderstorms.
updated to increase winds this morning
GMZ005 Synopsis For Keys Coastal Waters From Ocean Reef To Dry Tortugas 633 Am Edt Tue Mar 19 2024
Synopsis - Strong northerly breezes this morning in the wake of a cold front will become northeast and slacken this afternoon. Breezes will turn easterly and diminish tonight through Wednesday. Unsettled weather at the end of the week will result in fresh to strong breezes Thursday night and Friday, followed by breezes shifting to the southwest then northwest at the tail-end of the unsettled weather.
the approximate shoreward edge of the gulf stream is currently unavailable.
the approximate shoreward edge of the gulf stream is currently unavailable.
Area Discussion for - Key West, FL
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FXUS62 KKEY 191259 AFDKEY
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 859 AM EDT Tue Mar 19 2024
New UPDATE, DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION
UPDATE
Issued at 847 AM EDT Tue Mar 19 2024
Update issued to reflect the previous Wind Advisory cancellation.
Surface observations show that winds have diminished significantly after the passage of a cold front earlier this morning. Sustained winds are currently out of the north to northeast at approximately 5 to 10 mph, and occasional gusts are between 15 to 20 mph. No other changes have been made to the following discussions from the 450 AM issuance.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 847 AM EDT Tue Mar 19 2024 We're off to a surprisingly wet and thundery start this Tuesday morning across the Florida Keys. Yesterday evening, a broken line of Cuban thunderstorms meandered into the Straits of Florida towards the island chain. While most convection dissipated before reaching land, a lone shower swept through the western Lower Keys before falling apart. After midnight, northwesterly breezes started to filter over the island chain and promoted moisture convergence fueling convective development as originally forecast.
However, instead of being confined to the Straits, showers and thunderstorms erupted along the Lower and Middle Keys breaking through the dry air in the middle layers sampled from yesterday evening's sounding. In fact, this line developed so quickly that it's reminiscent of a cloud line on a summer day. Temperatures across the island chain have fallen into the lower to mid 70s in response to the rainfall. Wind observations along the Reef are generally contaminated by storm outflow, but show a trend of veering breezes to the northwest as a cold front approaches from the Gulf.
The cold front on our doorstep will sweep through our area this morning. Northerly breezes along the island chain, as well as a southerly shift of the convergence boundary already hint at this motion. By sunrise, most of the convection will have shifted off land into the Straits, but another round is pushing through from the Gulf waters. This line does not look nearly as robust as this morning's activity with CAMs generally suggesting it will fall apart before arriving to the island chain. That being said, slight chance PoPs are held for the rest of today as the air mass transitions from moist to dry. Fresh to strong northerly breezes are imminent across our waters and are expected to persist into this afternoon before continuing to shift to the northeast and gradually slackening through tonight.
Cooler and drier weather will follow into the end of the week when a period of unsettled weather is expected. A trough sliding through the Great Plains towards the Gulf coast will parent a surface low in the Gulf of Mexico sometime Thursday evening. As this low approaches Florida, breezes will freshen out of the east to southeast Thursday night into Friday over our CWA While the exact position of the low will be the final determining factor for intensity, Small Craft Advisories may be required for this time period. The low will also pull in a large amount of moisture resulting in enhanced PoPs from Thursday night through Saturday.
Guidance continues to favor Friday for the highest chances but due to this event being still a few days away with the major feature yet to develop will hold at 60% for now. Another round of drier and cooler weather will be on tap after Saturday night as the low is expected to drive another cold front through the area for the start of next week.
MARINE
Issued at 847 AM EDT Tue Mar 19 2024 The marine forecast has been updated to increase winds for this morning. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for all Florida Keys coastal waters. From the synopsis, strong northerly breezes this morning in the wake of a cold front will become northeast and slacken this afternoon. Breezes will turn easterly and diminish tonight through Wednesday. Unsettled weather at the end of the week will result in fresh to strong breezes Thursday night and Friday, followed by breezes shifting to the southwest then northwest at the tail-end of the unsettled weather.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 847 AM EDT Tue Mar 19 2024 Showers and thunderstorms will shift south of the EYW and MTH terminals before sunrise as a cold front moves through the area, but periods of MVFR ceilings will remain possible through the morning hours. VFR conditions should return this afternoon. Gusty north winds of 12 to 15 knots with frequent gusts over 20 knots will prevail through midday, then winds will shift to the NE and decrease to around 10 knots during the afternoon.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Key West 76 69 79 73 / 30 10 10 10 Marathon 78 70 80 72 / 30 10 0 10
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for GMZ031>035- 042>044-052>055-072>075.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 859 AM EDT Tue Mar 19 2024
New UPDATE, DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION
UPDATE
Issued at 847 AM EDT Tue Mar 19 2024
Update issued to reflect the previous Wind Advisory cancellation.
Surface observations show that winds have diminished significantly after the passage of a cold front earlier this morning. Sustained winds are currently out of the north to northeast at approximately 5 to 10 mph, and occasional gusts are between 15 to 20 mph. No other changes have been made to the following discussions from the 450 AM issuance.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 847 AM EDT Tue Mar 19 2024 We're off to a surprisingly wet and thundery start this Tuesday morning across the Florida Keys. Yesterday evening, a broken line of Cuban thunderstorms meandered into the Straits of Florida towards the island chain. While most convection dissipated before reaching land, a lone shower swept through the western Lower Keys before falling apart. After midnight, northwesterly breezes started to filter over the island chain and promoted moisture convergence fueling convective development as originally forecast.
However, instead of being confined to the Straits, showers and thunderstorms erupted along the Lower and Middle Keys breaking through the dry air in the middle layers sampled from yesterday evening's sounding. In fact, this line developed so quickly that it's reminiscent of a cloud line on a summer day. Temperatures across the island chain have fallen into the lower to mid 70s in response to the rainfall. Wind observations along the Reef are generally contaminated by storm outflow, but show a trend of veering breezes to the northwest as a cold front approaches from the Gulf.
The cold front on our doorstep will sweep through our area this morning. Northerly breezes along the island chain, as well as a southerly shift of the convergence boundary already hint at this motion. By sunrise, most of the convection will have shifted off land into the Straits, but another round is pushing through from the Gulf waters. This line does not look nearly as robust as this morning's activity with CAMs generally suggesting it will fall apart before arriving to the island chain. That being said, slight chance PoPs are held for the rest of today as the air mass transitions from moist to dry. Fresh to strong northerly breezes are imminent across our waters and are expected to persist into this afternoon before continuing to shift to the northeast and gradually slackening through tonight.
Cooler and drier weather will follow into the end of the week when a period of unsettled weather is expected. A trough sliding through the Great Plains towards the Gulf coast will parent a surface low in the Gulf of Mexico sometime Thursday evening. As this low approaches Florida, breezes will freshen out of the east to southeast Thursday night into Friday over our CWA While the exact position of the low will be the final determining factor for intensity, Small Craft Advisories may be required for this time period. The low will also pull in a large amount of moisture resulting in enhanced PoPs from Thursday night through Saturday.
Guidance continues to favor Friday for the highest chances but due to this event being still a few days away with the major feature yet to develop will hold at 60% for now. Another round of drier and cooler weather will be on tap after Saturday night as the low is expected to drive another cold front through the area for the start of next week.
MARINE
Issued at 847 AM EDT Tue Mar 19 2024 The marine forecast has been updated to increase winds for this morning. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for all Florida Keys coastal waters. From the synopsis, strong northerly breezes this morning in the wake of a cold front will become northeast and slacken this afternoon. Breezes will turn easterly and diminish tonight through Wednesday. Unsettled weather at the end of the week will result in fresh to strong breezes Thursday night and Friday, followed by breezes shifting to the southwest then northwest at the tail-end of the unsettled weather.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 847 AM EDT Tue Mar 19 2024 Showers and thunderstorms will shift south of the EYW and MTH terminals before sunrise as a cold front moves through the area, but periods of MVFR ceilings will remain possible through the morning hours. VFR conditions should return this afternoon. Gusty north winds of 12 to 15 knots with frequent gusts over 20 knots will prevail through midday, then winds will shift to the NE and decrease to around 10 knots during the afternoon.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Key West 76 69 79 73 / 30 10 10 10 Marathon 78 70 80 72 / 30 10 0 10
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for GMZ031>035- 042>044-052>055-072>075.
Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air Temp | Water Temp | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
KYWF1 - 8724580 - Key West, FL | 3 mi | 55 min | N 9.9G | 76°F | 81°F | 29.99 | ||
SANF1 - Sand Key, FL | 10 mi | 43 min | N 12G | 74°F | 29.99 | 66°F | ||
42095 | 16 mi | 43 min | 75°F | 80°F | 2 ft | |||
SMKF1 - Sombrero Key, FL | 34 mi | 43 min | 29.93 | |||||
VCAF1 - 8723970 - Vaca Key, FL | 35 mi | 55 min | ENE 4.1G | 75°F | 82°F |
toggle option: (graph/table)
Airport Reports
EDIT (hide/show)  Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
KEYW KEY WEST INTL,FL | 1 sm | 50 min | N 12G19 | 10 sm | Clear | 75°F | 70°F | 83% | 29.98 | |
KNQX KEY WEST NAS /BOCA CHICA FIELD/,FL | 3 sm | 50 min | N 08 | 10 sm | Partly Cloudy | 79°F | 72°F | 79% | 29.97 |
Tide / Current for Key Haven - Stock Island Channel, Florida
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Key Haven - Stock Island Channel
Click for Map
Tue -- 04:10 AM EDT -0.03 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 04:18 AM EDT Moonset
Tue -- 07:31 AM EDT Sunrise
Tue -- 10:48 AM EDT 0.56 feet High Tide
Tue -- 02:52 PM EDT 0.44 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 02:58 PM EDT Moonrise
Tue -- 07:37 PM EDT Sunset
Tue -- 09:26 PM EDT 1.07 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Tue -- 04:10 AM EDT -0.03 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 04:18 AM EDT Moonset
Tue -- 07:31 AM EDT Sunrise
Tue -- 10:48 AM EDT 0.56 feet High Tide
Tue -- 02:52 PM EDT 0.44 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 02:58 PM EDT Moonrise
Tue -- 07:37 PM EDT Sunset
Tue -- 09:26 PM EDT 1.07 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Key Haven - Stock Island Channel, Florida, Tide feet
12 am |
0.6 |
1 am |
0.3 |
2 am |
0.1 |
3 am |
0 |
4 am |
-0 |
5 am |
-0 |
6 am |
0.1 |
7 am |
0.2 |
8 am |
0.3 |
9 am |
0.4 |
10 am |
0.5 |
11 am |
0.6 |
12 pm |
0.5 |
1 pm |
0.5 |
2 pm |
0.5 |
3 pm |
0.4 |
4 pm |
0.5 |
5 pm |
0.6 |
6 pm |
0.7 |
7 pm |
0.9 |
8 pm |
1 |
9 pm |
1.1 |
10 pm |
1.1 |
11 pm |
1 |
Key West
Click for Map
Tue -- 02:08 AM EDT 0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 04:18 AM EDT Moonset
Tue -- 05:10 AM EDT 0.79 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 07:31 AM EDT Sunrise
Tue -- 07:32 AM EDT -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 11:15 AM EDT -1.06 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 02:58 PM EDT Moonrise
Tue -- 03:15 PM EDT 0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 05:23 PM EDT 0.37 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 06:56 PM EDT -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 07:38 PM EDT Sunset
Tue -- 11:09 PM EDT -1.48 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Tue -- 02:08 AM EDT 0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 04:18 AM EDT Moonset
Tue -- 05:10 AM EDT 0.79 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 07:31 AM EDT Sunrise
Tue -- 07:32 AM EDT -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 11:15 AM EDT -1.06 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 02:58 PM EDT Moonrise
Tue -- 03:15 PM EDT 0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 05:23 PM EDT 0.37 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 06:56 PM EDT -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 07:38 PM EDT Sunset
Tue -- 11:09 PM EDT -1.48 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Key West, Florida Current, knots
12 am |
-1 |
1 am |
-0.5 |
2 am |
-0.1 |
3 am |
0.3 |
4 am |
0.6 |
5 am |
0.8 |
6 am |
0.7 |
7 am |
0.3 |
8 am |
-0.2 |
9 am |
-0.7 |
10 am |
-0.9 |
11 am |
-1.1 |
12 pm |
-1 |
1 pm |
-0.7 |
2 pm |
-0.4 |
3 pm |
-0.1 |
4 pm |
0.2 |
5 pm |
0.4 |
6 pm |
0.3 |
7 pm |
-0 |
8 pm |
-0.6 |
9 pm |
-1 |
10 pm |
-1.4 |
11 pm |
-1.5 |
Key West, FL,
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