Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Tavernier, FL
March 19, 2024 7:46 AM EDT (11:46 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 7:24 AM Sunset 7:34 PM Moonrise 1:52 PM Moonset 3:14 AM |
GMZ042 Hawk Channel From Ocean Reef To Craig Key Out To The Reef- Hawk Channel From Craig Key To West End Of Seven Mile Bridge Out To The Reef- 633 Am Edt Tue Mar 19 2024
updated to increase winds this morning
.small craft advisory in effect - .
Today - North winds near 25 knots, becoming northeast 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. NEarshore waters extremely rough, becoming a light to moderate chop. Isolated showers.
Tonight - Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas subsiding to 1 to 3 feet. NEarshore waters a light to moderate chop.
Wednesday - Northeast to east winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. NEarshore waters a light to moderate chop.
Wednesday night - East winds near 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. NEarshore waters a light chop.
Thursday - East winds 10 to 15 knots, increasing to 15 to 20 knots in the afternoon. Seas building to 2 to 3 feet. NEarshore waters a light to moderate chop, becoming choppy. Isolated showers.
Thursday night - East to southeast winds 15 to 20 knots, increasing to 20 to 25 knots. Seas building to 3 to 5 feet. NEarshore waters choppy, becoming very rough. Scattered showers and isolated Thunderstorms.
Friday - Southeast winds 20 to 25 knots, decreasing to 15 to 20 knots. Seas 4 to 5 feet, subsiding to 2 to 4 feet. NEarshore waters very rough, becoming choppy. Numerous showers and isolated Thunderstorms.
Friday night - South winds near 15 knots, becoming south to southwest. Seas 2 to 3 feet. NEarshore waters a moderate chop. Scattered showers and isolated Thunderstorms.
Saturday - Southwest winds near 15 knots, becoming west to northwest in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 feet. NEarshore waters a moderate chop. Scattered showers and isolated Thunderstorms.
Saturday night - Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet, except 3 to 4 feet west of cosgrove shoal light. NEarshore waters choppy. Isolated showers and Thunderstorms.
updated to increase winds this morning
GMZ005 Synopsis For Keys Coastal Waters From Ocean Reef To Dry Tortugas 633 Am Edt Tue Mar 19 2024
Synopsis - Strong northerly breezes this morning in the wake of a cold front will become northeast and slacken this afternoon. Breezes will turn easterly and diminish tonight through Wednesday. Unsettled weather at the end of the week will result in fresh to strong breezes Thursday night and Friday, followed by breezes shifting to the southwest then northwest at the tail-end of the unsettled weather.
the approximate shoreward edge of the gulf stream is currently unavailable.
the approximate shoreward edge of the gulf stream is currently unavailable.
Area Discussion for - Miami-South Florida, FL
  (hide/show)  HelpNOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
FXUS62 KMFL 191133 AFDMFL
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 733 AM EDT Tue Mar 19 2024
New AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 310 AM EDT Tue Mar 19 2024
The weakening frontal boundary will wash out this morning as it moves across the area with any scattered rain showers or isolated thunderstorms clearing out by the late morning hours. Surface high pressure and broad mid-level ridging will develop over the Gulf coast states behind the front, allowing for a dry air mass to filter in and temperatures to lower to a more seasonable level. In addition, winds will shift to a northerly direction and eventually northeasterly direction while maintaining breezy levels behind the front. Wind gusts will mainly be in the 20-25mph range on Tuesday, though some gusts close to 30mph will be possible.
Comfortable weather will then continue through Wednesday as the surface high advects over the Florida Peninsula and eventually into the western Atlantic where winds then shift to an easterly direction later on Wednesday. The only concern beyond Tuesday morning will be RH levels dropping below 40%, especially from the interior portions of South Florida to the west coast that could pose increased fire weather potential. East coast areas should stay above 40%.
Temperatures for Tuesday and Wednesday will range from the mid 70s to around 80 for both days.
LONG TERM
(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 310 AM EDT Tue Mar 19 2024
Beautiful weather is expected through Thursday as high pressure to our north remains in control. Temperatures during this time period will be at or slightly below normal, likely in the upper 70s to around 80 degrees across South Florida.
A potent system is then expected to cross FL Friday into early Saturday. Deterministic and ensemble guidance all points to the potential for heavy rainfall across portions of South FL. Early forecast QPF ranges from 1-3 inches, although some locally higher amounts will certainly be possible. Still too early to determine if there will be a severe threat on Friday into Friday evening, but that potential will be monitored closely over the next several days. Southerly winds will be quite gusty through late Friday night, especially along the coasts, with gusts of 30 mph + possible.
Once the system moves off to the east, much drier conditions are expected for Sunday into early next week as weak upper level ridging builds into the region. Temperatures Friday through the weekend will be right around climatological norms.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 730 AM EDT Tue Mar 19 2024
Mainly VFR conditions will prevail throughout the forecast period.
Some lingering shower activity may persist over the east coast terminals for the next couple of hours before dissipating as a cold front pushes off to the south. Behind the front, a gusty north to northeasterly wind flow will develop through the rest of the day across all terminals. These winds will diminish and become light and variable this evening.
MARINE
Issued at 310 AM EDT Tue Mar 19 2024
Winds and seas are expected to increase for today especially over the Atlantic waters as a frontal boundary passes through the area this morning. Seas could reach as high as 7-10ft with wind gusts up to 25-30kts. These hazardous marine conditions will begin to subside Tuesday night into the mid-week period.
BEACHES
Issued at 310 AM EDT Tue Mar 19 2024
The risk for rip currents becomes high across the east coast beaches today behind a cold front passage. The risk may remain elevated through the rest of the week as easterly flow returns.
FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 310 AM EDT Tue Mar 19 2024
Minimum relative humidity values are expected to drop to the 30-40% range today for most of South Florida as a surface high builds behind the front and a dry air mass sets in. East coast areas are likely 40-45% and interior to the west coast between 30-40%, with lowest RHs occurring from the western interior to the west coastline. Winds are not expected to reach warning criteria levels.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Miami 76 63 78 67 / 20 0 0 0 West Kendall 78 59 80 63 / 20 0 0 0 Opa-Locka 77 62 80 65 / 20 0 0 0 Homestead 77 63 79 65 / 20 0 0 0 Fort Lauderdale 74 62 76 67 / 20 0 0 0 N Ft Lauderdale 74 62 77 66 / 20 0 0 0 Pembroke Pines 76 62 79 65 / 20 0 0 0 West Palm Beach 72 59 75 63 / 10 0 0 0 Boca Raton 74 61 77 65 / 20 0 0 0 Naples 77 58 79 62 / 0 0 0 0
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...High Rip Current Risk through this evening for FLZ168-172-173.
AM...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for AMZ610.
Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Wednesday for AMZ650-651-670- 671.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for GMZ656-657- 676.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 733 AM EDT Tue Mar 19 2024
New AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 310 AM EDT Tue Mar 19 2024
The weakening frontal boundary will wash out this morning as it moves across the area with any scattered rain showers or isolated thunderstorms clearing out by the late morning hours. Surface high pressure and broad mid-level ridging will develop over the Gulf coast states behind the front, allowing for a dry air mass to filter in and temperatures to lower to a more seasonable level. In addition, winds will shift to a northerly direction and eventually northeasterly direction while maintaining breezy levels behind the front. Wind gusts will mainly be in the 20-25mph range on Tuesday, though some gusts close to 30mph will be possible.
Comfortable weather will then continue through Wednesday as the surface high advects over the Florida Peninsula and eventually into the western Atlantic where winds then shift to an easterly direction later on Wednesday. The only concern beyond Tuesday morning will be RH levels dropping below 40%, especially from the interior portions of South Florida to the west coast that could pose increased fire weather potential. East coast areas should stay above 40%.
Temperatures for Tuesday and Wednesday will range from the mid 70s to around 80 for both days.
LONG TERM
(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 310 AM EDT Tue Mar 19 2024
Beautiful weather is expected through Thursday as high pressure to our north remains in control. Temperatures during this time period will be at or slightly below normal, likely in the upper 70s to around 80 degrees across South Florida.
A potent system is then expected to cross FL Friday into early Saturday. Deterministic and ensemble guidance all points to the potential for heavy rainfall across portions of South FL. Early forecast QPF ranges from 1-3 inches, although some locally higher amounts will certainly be possible. Still too early to determine if there will be a severe threat on Friday into Friday evening, but that potential will be monitored closely over the next several days. Southerly winds will be quite gusty through late Friday night, especially along the coasts, with gusts of 30 mph + possible.
Once the system moves off to the east, much drier conditions are expected for Sunday into early next week as weak upper level ridging builds into the region. Temperatures Friday through the weekend will be right around climatological norms.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 730 AM EDT Tue Mar 19 2024
Mainly VFR conditions will prevail throughout the forecast period.
Some lingering shower activity may persist over the east coast terminals for the next couple of hours before dissipating as a cold front pushes off to the south. Behind the front, a gusty north to northeasterly wind flow will develop through the rest of the day across all terminals. These winds will diminish and become light and variable this evening.
MARINE
Issued at 310 AM EDT Tue Mar 19 2024
Winds and seas are expected to increase for today especially over the Atlantic waters as a frontal boundary passes through the area this morning. Seas could reach as high as 7-10ft with wind gusts up to 25-30kts. These hazardous marine conditions will begin to subside Tuesday night into the mid-week period.
BEACHES
Issued at 310 AM EDT Tue Mar 19 2024
The risk for rip currents becomes high across the east coast beaches today behind a cold front passage. The risk may remain elevated through the rest of the week as easterly flow returns.
FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 310 AM EDT Tue Mar 19 2024
Minimum relative humidity values are expected to drop to the 30-40% range today for most of South Florida as a surface high builds behind the front and a dry air mass sets in. East coast areas are likely 40-45% and interior to the west coast between 30-40%, with lowest RHs occurring from the western interior to the west coastline. Winds are not expected to reach warning criteria levels.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Miami 76 63 78 67 / 20 0 0 0 West Kendall 78 59 80 63 / 20 0 0 0 Opa-Locka 77 62 80 65 / 20 0 0 0 Homestead 77 63 79 65 / 20 0 0 0 Fort Lauderdale 74 62 76 67 / 20 0 0 0 N Ft Lauderdale 74 62 77 66 / 20 0 0 0 Pembroke Pines 76 62 79 65 / 20 0 0 0 West Palm Beach 72 59 75 63 / 10 0 0 0 Boca Raton 74 61 77 65 / 20 0 0 0 Naples 77 58 79 62 / 0 0 0 0
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...High Rip Current Risk through this evening for FLZ168-172-173.
AM...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for AMZ610.
Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Wednesday for AMZ650-651-670- 671.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for GMZ656-657- 676.
toggle option: (graph/table)
Airport Reports
EDIT (hide/show)  Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.Molasses Reef
Click for Map
Tue -- 04:13 AM EDT Moonset
Tue -- 05:25 AM EDT 1.90 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:25 AM EDT Sunrise
Tue -- 11:36 AM EDT 0.46 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 02:51 PM EDT Moonrise
Tue -- 05:35 PM EDT 1.75 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:32 PM EDT Sunset
Tue -- 11:52 PM EDT 0.18 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Tue -- 04:13 AM EDT Moonset
Tue -- 05:25 AM EDT 1.90 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:25 AM EDT Sunrise
Tue -- 11:36 AM EDT 0.46 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 02:51 PM EDT Moonrise
Tue -- 05:35 PM EDT 1.75 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:32 PM EDT Sunset
Tue -- 11:52 PM EDT 0.18 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Molasses Reef, Florida, Tide feet
12 am |
0.3 |
1 am |
0.6 |
2 am |
1 |
3 am |
1.4 |
4 am |
1.7 |
5 am |
1.9 |
6 am |
1.9 |
7 am |
1.7 |
8 am |
1.4 |
9 am |
1 |
10 am |
0.7 |
11 am |
0.5 |
12 pm |
0.5 |
1 pm |
0.6 |
2 pm |
0.9 |
3 pm |
1.2 |
4 pm |
1.5 |
5 pm |
1.7 |
6 pm |
1.7 |
7 pm |
1.6 |
8 pm |
1.3 |
9 pm |
0.9 |
10 pm |
0.5 |
11 pm |
0.3 |
Long Key
Click for Map
Tue -- 02:55 AM EDT 0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 04:14 AM EDT Moonset
Tue -- 06:41 AM EDT 0.92 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 07:27 AM EDT Sunrise
Tue -- 09:40 AM EDT -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 12:45 PM EDT -0.66 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 02:53 PM EDT Moonrise
Tue -- 03:42 PM EDT 0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 06:53 PM EDT 0.56 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 07:34 PM EDT Sunset
Tue -- 09:02 PM EDT -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Tue -- 02:55 AM EDT 0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 04:14 AM EDT Moonset
Tue -- 06:41 AM EDT 0.92 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 07:27 AM EDT Sunrise
Tue -- 09:40 AM EDT -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 12:45 PM EDT -0.66 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 02:53 PM EDT Moonrise
Tue -- 03:42 PM EDT 0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 06:53 PM EDT 0.56 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 07:34 PM EDT Sunset
Tue -- 09:02 PM EDT -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Long Key, east of drawbridge, Florida Current, knots
12 am |
-0.9 |
1 am |
-0.7 |
2 am |
-0.4 |
3 am |
0 |
4 am |
0.4 |
5 am |
0.7 |
6 am |
0.9 |
7 am |
0.9 |
8 am |
0.7 |
9 am |
0.3 |
10 am |
-0.1 |
11 am |
-0.4 |
12 pm |
-0.6 |
1 pm |
-0.7 |
2 pm |
-0.5 |
3 pm |
-0.2 |
4 pm |
0.1 |
5 pm |
0.3 |
6 pm |
0.5 |
7 pm |
0.6 |
8 pm |
0.4 |
9 pm |
0 |
10 pm |
-0.4 |
11 pm |
-0.8 |
Miami, FL,
NOTICE: Some pages have affiliate links to Amazon. As an Amazon Associate, I earn from qualifying purchases. Please read website Cookie, Privacy, and Disclamers by clicking HERE. To contact me click HERE. For my YouTube page click HERE