Thursday, January18, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Tavernier, FL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:07AMSunset 5:57PM Thursday January 18, 2018 12:36 AM EST (05:36 UTC) Moonrise 8:09AMMoonset 7:28PM Illumination 2% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 1 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ042 Hawk Channel From Ocean Reef To Craig Key Out To The Reef- Hawk Channel From Craig Key To West End Of Seven Mile Bridge Out To The Reef- Hawk Channel From West End Of Seven Mile Bridge To Halfmoon Shoal Out To The Reef- 1022 Pm Est Wed Jan 17 2018
.small craft advisory in effect...
Overnight..North winds 20 to 25 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet. NEarshore waters very rough.
Thursday..North to northeast winds 20 to 25 knots, decreasing to 15 to 20 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet, subsiding to 2 to 3 feet. NEarshore waters very rough, becoming choppy.
Thursday night..Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. NEarshore waters choppy.
Friday..Northeast to east winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 3 feet. NEarshore waters a light to moderate chop.
Friday night..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 3 feet. NEarshore waters a light to moderate chop.
Saturday..Northeast to east winds increasing to near 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. NEarshore waters becoming a moderate chop. Isolated showers.
Saturday night through Sunday night..East winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. NEarshore waters choppy. Isolated showers.
Monday..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. NEarshore waters a light to moderate chop. Isolated showers.
Monday night..East winds near 10 knots. Seas around 1 foot. NEarshore waters a light chop. Isolated showers.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Tavernier, FL
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location: 25.01, -80.38     debug


Area Discussion for - Miami-South Florida, FL
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Fxus62 kmfl 180257
afdmfl
area forecast discussion
national weather service miami fl
957 pm est Wed jan 17 2018

Update Cold front has been much slower to arrive than
expected and is currently just making its way into the lake
okeechobee region. This has also delayed the arrival of colder
temps, with temps still linger in the 50s and 60s across most of
south florida as of 10pm. Based on this, have pushed back the
start time of the wind chill advisory to 2am. No changes to the
timing for the freeze warning, though temps may hover right around
33-34 a little longer before dropping.

Also expect cooler temperatures to linger a little longer in the
morning hours as NW winds remain breezy. However, the current
product end times of 8am for the freeze warning and 10am for the
wind chill advisory still look good.

Prev discussion issued 659 pm est Wed jan 17 2018
update... Some cloud cover lingers across the southeastern part of
south florida early this evening, but skies should be mostly
clear across the area by midnight. For this update, I slowed the
rate of cooling during the evening hours based on recent
temperature trends and the latest guidance. However, no changes
have been made to tonight's low temperatures or wind chills.

Freeze warnings are in effect for glades and hendry counties. Wind
chill advisories are posted for glades, hendry, collier, inland
and metro palm beach, and inland broward.

Prev discussion... Issued 627 pm est Wed jan 17 2018
aviation... Front in central fl expected to arrive 02z-04z
accompanied by gusty NW winds 10-13kts. Some MVFR CIGS currently
along front, not sure if they will arrive in south florida but
best bet is at kapf where have included tempo MVFR CIGS 02z-04z.

Otherwise, any clouds remainVFR becoming few into thurs. Winds
briefly diminish behind initial frontal passage late tonight,
picking up out of the nnw 12-15kts gust 20kts 14z-16z. Potential
for sites to veer nne later in the day, but have kept most more n
to nnw for now.

Prev discussion... Issued 323 pm est Wed jan 17 2018
freeze warning for glades and hendry counties...

wind chill advisory for portions of south florida...

discussion...

short term (tonight): cold front progressing quickly southward
through the florida peninsula this afternoon. Some high cirrus
clouds have been streaming across south florida this afternoon.

Expect these clouds to diminish overnight. Skies will be mostly
clear to partly cloudy during the evening, with additional
clearing overnight as drier mid-level air moves in behind the
front. Winds tonight will remain up near 10 mph from the nnw,
advecting in cold air from the north. The low temperature forecast
for tonight was lowered by an additional degree from our previous
forecast, based on the latest guidance. A freeze warning is in
effect for glades and hendry counties. Minimum wind chills will
range from the mid 20s in glades county to near 40 along the
southeast beaches. A wind chill advisory remains in effect for
glades, hendry, collier, metro and inland palm beach and inland
broward.

Medium and long range (Thursday through early next week):
surface high pressure will build in Thursday into Friday. This
will veer low levels winds back to the north northeast across
south florida. Once again, the atmosphere will be too dry to
produce any precipitation, with partly cloudy skies prevailing.

South florida is likely to remain dry through Friday night. Maximum
temperatures on Thursday near 60 for the northern interior to low
to mid 60s along the east coast metro, values 10 to 15 degrees
below seasonal norms. Maximums will slowly begin to rebound on
Friday as flow shifts more easterly. Over this weekend, a weak
shortwave drifting eastward across the gulf should allow for
deeper moisture to move northward over south florida. This
increase in moisture and weak instability may bring a better
chance for showers for the weekend, though confidence of
occurrence is still low to moderate. The shortwave moves away
early next week. However, there continues to be signs that a weak
frontal system may approach the area from the northwest as another
upper-level trough digs southward across the country's mid-
section. This feature could increase moisture again towards the
middle of the week.

Marine... A cold front will move through south florida waters late
this afternoon and early evening. Behind the front, strong
northerly winds of 20-25 knots are expected this evening through
tonight. Small craft advisories are in effect for both the gulf
and atlantic waters for breezy northerly winds and hazardous seas.

Conditions will show signs of improvement by late Thursday.

Preliminary point temps pops
West palm beach 41 62 51 70 0 10 10 10
fort lauderdale 48 63 53 70 0 10 10 10
miami 50 64 53 70 0 10 10 10
naples 39 60 43 69 0 0 0 0

Mfl watches warnings advisories
Fl... Freeze warning from 3 am to 8 am est Thursday for flz063-066.

Wind chill advisory from 2 am to 10 am est Thursday for flz063-
066>071.

Am... Small craft advisory until 10 pm est Thursday for amz650-651-670-
671.

Gm... Small craft advisory until 10 am est Thursday for gmz656-657.

Small craft advisory until 1 pm est Thursday for gmz676.

Update... 88 alm


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MLRF1 - Molasses Reef, FL 0 mi37 min N 20 G 23 61°F 74°F1023.3 hPa (+0.3)
FWYF1 - Fowey Rocks, FL 43 mi37 min NNW 25 G 27 59°F 73°F1024.1 hPa (+0.9)
VCAF1 - 8723970 - Vaca Key, FL 44 mi49 min NNW 15 G 20 60°F 66°F1023.9 hPa

Wind History for Vaca Key, FL
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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N9
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N15
NE18
NE14
G18

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Homestead Air Reserve Base, FL32 mi41 minNW 13 G 1910.00 miFair56°F52°F86%1024 hPa

Wind History from HST (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN6N7N5NW5NW8NW8NW7NW9NW8NW10N9NW8NW9N8NW10NW10NW10NW6NW4NW4NW5NW8NW17
G27
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1 day agoNE12NE12NE13
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NW8N7N7N4N7NE9NE12
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2 days agoNW11N12N12NW12N7NW15N15N9N10NW13N12N10N11N11NE10NE16
G23
NE11NE11NE12NE13N8N6N4NE11

Tide / Current Tables for Molasses Reef, Florida
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Molasses Reef
Click for Map
Thu -- 02:52 AM EST     -0.19 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:07 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:08 AM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 09:16 AM EST     2.23 feet High Tide
Thu -- 03:21 PM EST     0.08 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 05:56 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 07:28 PM EST     Moonset
Thu -- 09:20 PM EST     2.04 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.80.3-0.1-0.2-00.411.622.22.21.81.30.80.30.10.10.40.91.41.8221.7

Tide / Current Tables for Long Key, east of drawbridge, Florida Current
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Long Key
Click for Map
Thu -- 03:07 AM EST     -1.52 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 06:29 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 07:09 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:10 AM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 09:31 AM EST     1.36 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 01:00 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 03:41 PM EST     -1.20 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 05:57 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 06:52 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 07:30 PM EST     Moonset
Thu -- 09:29 PM EST     1.01 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-0-0.7-1.3-1.5-1.4-1-0.40.411.31.31.10.70-0.7-1.1-1.2-0.9-0.50.10.6110.7

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Miami-South Florida, FL (0,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Miami, FL
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.