Thursday, January24, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Tavernier, FL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:06AMSunset 6:01PM Thursday January 24, 2019 5:45 AM EST (10:45 UTC) Moonrise 10:02PMMoonset 9:58AM Illumination 87% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ042 Hawk Channel From Ocean Reef To Craig Key Out To The Reef- Hawk Channel From Craig Key To West End Of Seven Mile Bridge Out To The Reef- Hawk Channel From West End Of Seven Mile Bridge To Halfmoon Shoal Out To The Reef- 453 Am Est Thu Jan 24 2019
.small craft advisory in effect...
Today..Southeast to south winds near 20 knots, becoming southwest to west near 15 knots in the early afternoon. Winds becoming west and decreasing to near 10 knots late in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 4 feet, subsiding to 1 to 3 feet. NEarshore waters rough, becoming a light chop. Widespread showers and isolated Thunderstorms developing.
Tonight..West winds near 10 knots, becoming northwest to north and increasing to near 15 knots. Seas 1 to 3 feet, building to 2 to 3 feet. NEarshore waters a light chop, becoming a moderate chop. Scattered showers.
Friday..North winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 1 to 3 feet, except 3 to 5 feet west of cosgrove shoal light. NEarshore waters choppy. Scattered showers.
Friday night..North to northeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. NEarshore waters choppy. Isolated showers.
Saturday..Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. NEarshore waters choppy. Isolated showers.
Saturday night..Northeast winds near 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. NEarshore waters a moderate chop. Scattered showers.
Sunday and Sunday night..Northeast to east winds near 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. NEarshore waters a moderate chop. Scattered showers and isolated Thunderstorms.
Monday..Northeast winds near 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. NEarshore waters a moderate chop. Scattered showers.
Monday night..North to northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 3 feet. NEarshore waters a light to moderate chop. Scattered showers.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Tavernier, FL
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location: 25.01, -80.38     debug


Area Discussion for - Miami-South Florida, FL
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Fxus62 kmfl 240845
afdmfl
area forecast discussion
national weather service miami fl
345 am est Thu jan 24 2019

Strong to severe storms possible ahead of cold front today...

Discussion
A line of showers and thunderstorms is pushing eastward across
the gulf of mexico and the big bend of florida this morning. Ahead
of these storms, discrete cells of showers have developed in
prefrontal bands over portions of south florida. Rain chances will
increase as the morning continues and the front pushes closer. A
healthy low level jet and sufficient surface moisture will be
present this morning into the afternoon over portions of the
state to support strong storms. A special 09z upper air sounding
will soon shed some light on conditions this morning aloft ahead
of the front's arrival.

Instability and wind shear are present over the region this
morning and expected to remain for portions of the day before the
supporting features shift away. Before that shift of support away
from the region, there is a potential for strong to severe storms.

The primary focus of the strong to severe threat is strong winds,
including tornadic activity. The areas with the higher threat
today are southwest florida and the lake okeechobee region, which
remain under the marginal risk in the storm prediction center's
day 1 outlook.

Current thought is that the line of convection will push into
southwest florida this morning and continue eastward, moving
across the east coast metro areas in the afternoon, before
clearing into the atlantic by the evening. As the low level jet
departs, some weakening in the convection is possible. The coastal
interactions by the convection as it nears the east coast could
provide some localized convergence and shear that could also
produce some stronger storms in the afternoon.

As drier, cooler air moves over the region behind the front for
Friday, there could be some trailing high cloud cover. As the
front stalls to south and east by Saturday, it will act as a focus
for moisture. The next mid-level disturbance will emerge into the
gulf late Saturday into Sunday, helping to spur the frontal
boundary back northward. This additional moisture will allow rain
chances to increase and the potential for some thunderstorms
cannot be ruled out though the overrunning nature of the cloud
cover may help limit available instability for thunderstorms.

A reinforcing boundary will push through late Monday into Tuesday,
helping to clear out the disturbance and related moisture. A
second frontal boundary on Wednesday will ease into the region
with some divergence in potential solutions causing increasing
uncertainty to end the forecast period. The finer details of this
boundary, its timing, and available moisture could have impacts on
the forecast evolution over time for mid to late week. Currently,
south florida would remain in the warmer, moist sector capable of
supporting mention of rain chances. If this synoptic setup were
to change, so would the forecast. Preferred the mean of the model
blends for temperatures through the 7 day period.

Marine
Increasing showers and storms today as the cold front moves across
the waters. By Friday, the front should be clearing into the
atlantic with decreasing rain chances over most of the waters. The
dry period will be brief as the moisture returns and a disturbance
moves across the waters Sunday into Monday with additional rain in
the forecast.

Beach forecast
A high risk of rip currents along the atlantic beaches today.

Behind the cold front, the gulf beaches may see an elevated risk
of rip currents on Friday.

Fire weather
Drier air behind the cold front on Friday could allow portions of
south florida to experience relative humidity values in the mid to
upper 30 percent range on Friday afternoon. Wind speeds during the
driest periods of Friday afternoon should remain below critical
thresholds.

Prev discussion issued 110 am est Thu jan 24 2019
aviation...

a approaching cold front will bring increasing instability to the
region, allowing for the chances of shra and TS to increase later
this morning. Some of the TS may be strong with gusty wind, and a
very slight chance of a tornado, mainly north of a line from
apf over to pbi. The frontal passage currently looks to be late
this afternoon, into the evening hours.Behind the front, the wind
will shift to the northwest for the overnight hours.

Preliminary point temps pops
West palm beach 80 56 66 52 50 30 10 20
fort lauderdale 80 60 67 55 40 30 20 30
miami 80 61 67 56 40 30 20 30
naples 75 56 65 48 60 20 10 10

Mfl watches warnings advisories
Fl... High rip current risk through this evening for flz168-172-173.

Am... Small craft advisory until 7 pm est this evening for amz650-651-
670-671.

Gm... Small craft advisory until 5 am est early this morning for
gmz676.

Discussion... 02 rag
marine... 02 rag
aviation... 13
beach forecast... 02 rag
fire weather... 02 rag


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MLRF1 - Molasses Reef, FL 0 mi46 min S 19 G 21 76°F 75°F1015.7 hPa (+0.6)
BNKF1 - Butternut Key, FL 9 mi106 min 69°F
BOBF1 - Bob Allen, FL 16 mi106 min 69°F
LSNF1 - Long Sound, FL 16 mi106 min 69°F
LMDF1 - Little Madeira, FL 18 mi106 min 70°F
TRRF1 - Taylor River, FL 20 mi106 min 72°F
PKYF1 - Peterson Key, FL 20 mi106 min 69°F
TBYF1 21 mi106 min 71°F
BKYF1 25 mi106 min 71°F
GBTF1 - Garfield Bight, FL 25 mi106 min 71°F
LONF1 - Long Key, FL 28 mi46 min S 14 G 16 74°F 69°F1015.2 hPa (+0.9)70°F
JKYF1 - Johnson Key, FL 28 mi106 min 71°F
WWEF1 33 mi166 min 70°F
LRIF1 33 mi106 min 71°F
NRRF1 36 mi106 min 69°F
CWAF1 39 mi166 min 69°F
CANF1 - Cane Patch, FL 41 mi106 min 68°F
GBIF1 - Gunboat Island, FL 43 mi106 min 68°F
FWYF1 - Fowey Rocks, FL 43 mi46 min SSE 25 G 27 76°F 73°F1016 hPa (+0.8)
VCAF1 - 8723970 - Vaca Key, FL 44 mi46 min W 9.9 G 13 75°F 70°F1015.2 hPa (+0.9)
SREF1 45 mi106 min 68°F
HREF1 46 mi106 min 68°F
BDVF1 - Broad River, FL 46 mi106 min 69°F
SMKF1 - Sombrero Key, FL 47 mi56 min 76°F 1014.4 hPa (+0.7)70°F

Wind History for Vaca Key, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Homestead Air Reserve Base, FL32 mi1.8 hrsSSE 810.00 miFair74°F69°F86%1015.6 hPa

Wind History from HST (wind in knots)
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2 days agoNW5NW5--N3NW5N7N5N6NE7N11N13NE9N9N7N9N7NW4NW4NW8NW8NW6NE9E9NE10

Tide / Current Tables for Molasses Reef, Florida
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Molasses Reef
Click for Map
Thu -- 04:34 AM EST     -0.58 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:06 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:57 AM EST     Moonset
Thu -- 10:53 AM EST     2.56 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:05 PM EST     -0.43 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:00 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 10:02 PM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 11:17 PM EST     2.42 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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21.30.6-0.1-0.5-0.5-0.20.41.21.92.42.62.31.81.10.3-0.2-0.4-0.30.20.91.62.12.4

Tide / Current Tables for Long Key, east of drawbridge, Florida Current
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Long Key
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:48 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 04:52 AM EST     -1.72 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 07:08 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:12 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 09:58 AM EST     Moonset
Thu -- 11:13 AM EST     1.52 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 02:33 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 05:25 PM EST     -1.50 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 06:02 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 08:41 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 10:04 PM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 11:33 PM EST     1.26 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.10.6-0.2-1-1.6-1.7-1.5-0.9-0.20.61.31.51.41.10.4-0.4-1.1-1.5-1.4-1.1-0.50.20.91.2

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Miami-South Florida, FL (5,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Miami, FL
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Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.