Tuesday, October16, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Tavernier, FL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:20AMSunset 6:54PM Tuesday October 16, 2018 2:42 PM EDT (18:42 UTC) Moonrise 1:02PMMoonset 12:00AM Illumination 47% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 7 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ042 Hawk Channel From Ocean Reef To Craig Key Out To The Reef- Hawk Channel From Craig Key To West End Of Seven Mile Bridge Out To The Reef- Hawk Channel From West End Of Seven Mile Bridge To Halfmoon Shoal Out To The Reef- 942 Am Edt Tue Oct 16 2018
.small craft advisory in effect...
Today..East winds near 20 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet. NEarshore waters rough. Isolated showers this afternoon.
Tonight and Wednesday..East winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. NEarshore waters choppy. Scattered showers and isolated Thunderstorms.
Wednesday night..East winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. NEarshore waters choppy. Isolated showers and Thunderstorms.
Thursday..East winds near 20 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet. NEarshore waters rough. Isolated showers and Thunderstorms.
Thursday night and Friday..East winds near 20 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet. NEarshore waters rough. Isolated showers and Thunderstorms.
Friday night and Saturday..East winds near 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. NEarshore waters a moderate chop. Isolated showers and Thunderstorms.
Saturday night..Northeast to east winds decreasing to 5 to 10 knots. Seas subsiding to around 1 foot. NEarshore waters becoming smooth to a light chop. Isolated showers and Thunderstorms.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Tavernier, FL
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location: 25.01, -80.38     debug


Area Discussion for - Miami-South Florida, FL
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Fxus62 kmfl 161741
afdmfl
area forecast discussion
national weather service miami fl
141 pm edt Tue oct 16 2018

Aviation
Vfr through the TAF period. East-southeast winds around 15 knots
(with occasional gusts up to 25 knots) will decrease to around
10-12 knots tonight. Only isolated showers are anticipated
through the remainder of the afternoon. Shower chances will then
increase slightly at the eastern terminals tonight, so added vcsh
from late tonight through Wednesday morning. Expect similar
weather conditions for Wednesday, however with a slightly greater
coverage of showers and a few thunderstorms.

Prev discussion issued 1130 am edt Tue oct 16 2018
update...

expansive subtropical ridging spanning from the central gulf to
the western atlantic will remain the prevailing feature aloft,
with surface ridging nosing in from the northeast. These features
will promote drier conditions along with a persistently breezy
east-southeast flow in the low levels. While we can't rule out a
stay shower or storm, most locations should remain dry. For this
evening, the meso models are keying in on a slightly better chance
for a shower storm over southern miami-dade and mainland monroe
counties. Thereafter, a few showers will be possible later tonight
across the atlantic waters with these potentially brushing the
east coast at times.

Beach forecast...

a moderate (to borderline high) risk for rip currents continues
for the atlantic beaches today. A moderate to high risk is
expected to continue for much of this week. Swimmers should
exercise extreme caution given these expected conditions.

Climate...

several locations observed record warmth yesterday, and given
fairly rain-free conditions, additional records may be threatened
this week. For this afternoon, naples may approach its daily
record high maximum temperature of 94 degrees set in 2007.

Prev discussion... Issued 737 am edt Tue oct 16 2018
aviation...

vfr through the TAF period. East-southeast winds will increase to
around 15 knots later this morning through this evening, before
decreasing to around 10 knots tonight. A few light and brief
showers are possible today, but coverage will be limited
precluding a vcsh mention. Shower chances may increase slightly at
the eastern terminals tonight, and will consider adding vcsh
during this time with the 18z update depending upon forecast
trends.

Prev discussion... Issued 241 am edt Tue oct 16 2018
discussion...

short term (today through Thursday)
wv loop early this morning shows expansive upper level ridge
dominating florida and much of the SE conus, gulf of mexico, and
adjacent atlantic. These feature will remain anchored overhead the
region through the week, helping to provide an extended period of
relatively tranquil weather.

With the surface ridge centered to the east, moderate easterly
winds will prevail, with spotty showers and possibly a
thunderstorm or two spreading inland off the atlantic from time to
time. Late Tuesday into Wednesday, a plume of moisture and
vorticity MAX will spread westward along the southern periphery of
the ridge, mainly south of south florida. This should be close
enough to increase rain chances just slightly over southern areas
during this period. Temperatures beneath the ridge will be warmer
than normal for mid-october and some records may be threatened.

See climate section below for details.

Long term (Thursday night through Monday)
some signs of changes in the overall weather pattern as we get
into next weekend, as the persistent ridge weakens, allowing mid-
latitude troughs to pass closer to the region. Most likely, for
florida, only a zonal flow will form with the main impacts of the
trough remaining north of the area. At the surface, a front will
approach over the weekend, but it appears to be rather weak. For
now, will forecast temperatures to only drop a degree or two
over the weekend, with wind shift to northeast and slightly better
shower thunderstorm chances.

Marine...

moderate east flow will prevail through the week with high
pressure centered east of the waters. Speeds may build to levels
where small craft operators should exercise caution, and by
Wednesday a small craft advisory may be necessary for atlantic
waters as a surge of wind is possible.

Aviation...

vfr conditons across the region with partly cloudy skies and
southeast winds around 10 knots. East southeasterly winds will
increase to around 15 knots later this morning through the
afternoon and evening. A few light and brief showers are possible
this afternoon but, coverage will be limited enough to not
include vcsh in this forecast cycle.

Beach forecast...

east wind 15 to 20 mph will cause a moderate risk of rip currents
on atlantic beaches today, and there is a chance this risk will
increase to high. A moderate to high risk of rip currents will
likely continue through much of the week, as the high pressure
remains anchored in place.

Climate...

several locations observed record warmth Monday. Naples tied a
daily record high maximum of 90 degrees, last set in 2007. The low
temperature at fort lauderdale only fell to 81 degrees, which
broke 2007s daily record warm minimum of 79 degrees. West palm
beach tied a daily record warm low temperature, also last set in
2007, of 79 degrees. With fairly rain-free conditions, decent
onshore flow, and high pressure dominating this week, additional
records may be threatened.

Preliminary point temps pops
West palm beach 89 78 89 78 20 20 20 20
fort lauderdale 89 80 88 80 20 30 30 20
miami 89 78 89 78 20 30 20 20
naples 93 75 90 73 20 10 30 10

Mfl watches warnings advisories
Fl... None.

Am... None.

Gm... None.

Update... 34 spm
discussion... 23 sbk
marine... 23 sbk
aviation... 34 spm
beach forecast... 23 sbk


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MLRF1 - Molasses Reef, FL 0 mi43 min E 19 G 21 83°F 83°F1016.7 hPa (-1.7)
BNKF1 - Butternut Key, FL 9 mi103 min 84°F
BWSF1 - Blackwater Sound, FL 12 mi163 min 85°F
DKKF1 - Duck Key, FL 13 mi163 min 84°F
THRF1 13 mi163 min 85°F
LBSF1 - Little Blackwater, FL 14 mi163 min 84°F
TCVF1 - Trout Cove, FL 16 mi163 min 84°F
LSNF1 - Long Sound, FL 16 mi103 min 84°F
BOBF1 - Bob Allen, FL 16 mi103 min 83°F
HCEF1 - Highway Creek, FL 17 mi163 min 84°F
LMDF1 - Little Madeira, FL 18 mi103 min 84°F
MDKF1 19 mi163 min 83°F
WRBF1 - Whipray Basin, FL 19 mi103 min ENE 13 84°F
TRRF1 - Taylor River, FL 20 mi103 min 84°F
PKYF1 - Peterson Key, FL 20 mi103 min 85°F
TBYF1 21 mi103 min 85°F
LRKF1 - Little Rabbit Key, FL 24 mi163 min 84°F
GBTF1 - Garfield Bight, FL 25 mi103 min 84°F
BKYF1 25 mi103 min 84°F
LONF1 - Long Key, FL 28 mi43 min ESE 19 G 22 84°F 84°F1016.4 hPa (-1.7)75°F
JKYF1 - Johnson Key, FL 28 mi163 min 82°F
MUKF1 - Murray Key, FL 31 mi103 min 84°F
WWEF1 33 mi163 min 84°F
LRIF1 33 mi103 min 84°F
NRRF1 36 mi103 min 84°F
CWAF1 39 mi163 min 85°F
CANF1 - Cane Patch, FL 41 mi103 min 83°F
TPEF1 - Tarpon Bay East, FL 41 mi163 min 83°F
FWYF1 - Fowey Rocks, FL 43 mi43 min E 20 G 22 83°F 83°F1017.7 hPa (-1.9)
GBIF1 - Gunboat Island, FL 43 mi103 min 84°F
VCAF1 - 8723970 - Vaca Key, FL 44 mi43 min WSW 14 G 20 85°F 86°F1016.2 hPa (-1.7)
SREF1 45 mi103 min 86°F
HREF1 46 mi103 min 84°F
BDVF1 - Broad River, FL 46 mi103 min 84°F
SMKF1 - Sombrero Key, FL 47 mi53 min ENE 22 G 26 83°F 1015.5 hPa (-1.6)74°F

Wind History for Vaca Key, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Homestead Air Reserve Base, FL32 mi47 minE 14 G 2010.00 miPartly Cloudy87°F75°F69%1017.2 hPa

Wind History from HST (wind in knots)
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1 day agoE8E10E9E10E10E6E5E6E6E7E8E10E10E9E7E8E9E8E8E9NE13E11E13E10
2 days agoSE4E5SE6SE4E6E3CalmE4SE4E3E3E5E3CalmCalmCalmN3CalmCalmCalmCalmE7E8E8

Tide / Current Tables for Molasses Reef, Florida
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Molasses Reef
Click for Map
Tue -- 12:12 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 02:08 AM EDT     2.36 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:20 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 08:23 AM EDT     0.83 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 02:01 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 02:02 PM EDT     First Quarter
Tue -- 02:56 PM EDT     2.49 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:53 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 09:09 PM EDT     1.08 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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22.22.42.32.11.71.310.80.91.11.41.82.22.42.52.42.11.81.41.21.11.11.3

Tide / Current Tables for Long Key, east of drawbridge, Florida Current
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Long Key
Click for Map
Tue -- 12:14 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 02:03 AM EDT     0.44 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 05:19 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 07:21 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 08:29 AM EDT     -0.87 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 12:07 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 02:02 PM EDT     First Quarter
Tue -- 02:03 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 03:26 PM EDT     0.70 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 06:54 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 06:55 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 09:37 PM EDT     -0.62 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.10.30.40.40.30.1-0.2-0.6-0.8-0.8-0.7-0.4-0.10.30.60.70.70.60.4-0-0.4-0.6-0.6-0.5

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Miami-South Florida, FL (14,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Miami, FL
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Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.