Sunrise 6:40 AM   Sunset 7:56 PM Moonrise 3:51 AM   Moonset 4:31 PM

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GMZ042 Hawk Channel From Ocean Reef To Craig Key Out To The Reef- Hawk Channel From Craig Key To West End Of Seven Mile Bridge Out To The Reef- Hawk Channel From West End Of Seven Mile Bridge To Halfmoon Shoal Out To The Reef- 432 Am Edt Sun May 5 2024
Today - East winds near 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. NEarshore waters a moderate chop. Isolated showers. Tonight - East winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet. NEarshore waters choppy. Isolated showers. Monday and Monday night - East winds near 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. NEarshore waters a moderate chop. Isolated showers. Tuesday - East to southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. NEarshore waters a light to moderate chop. Tuesday night - East to southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. NEarshore waters a light to moderate chop. Wednesday - East to southeast winds near 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. NEarshore waters a moderate chop. Wednesday night - Southeast winds near 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. NEarshore waters a moderate chop. Thursday and Thursday night - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. NEarshore waters a light to moderate chop. Isolated showers.

GMZ005 Synopsis For Keys Coastal Waters From Ocean Reef To Dry Tortugas 432 Am Edt Sun May 5 2024
Synopsis - High pressure over the western north atlantic will maintain moderate to fresh easterly breezes for the next several days. Breezes will tend to peak overnight, followed by lulls in the afternoon. Breezes will turn to the southeast Tuesday through Wednesday as the high loses latitude and flattens over the western north atlantic.
the approximate shoreward edge of the gulf stream as of may 03 - .
64 nm south of dry tortugas light - .on loggerhead key. 20 nm south of cosgrove shoal light - .off the marquesas keys. 9 nm south of sand key light - .off key west. 8 nm south of looe key - .off big pine key. 11 nm south of sombrero key light - .off marathon. 9 nm southeast of alligator reef light - .off islamorada. 8 nm southeast of molasses reef light - .off key largo.
gulf stream analysis courtesy of the national weather service in key west.

FXUS62 KMFL 051154 AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 754 AM EDT Sun May 5 2024

New UPDATE, AVIATION

UPDATE
Issued at 747 AM EDT Sun May 5 2024

Minor tweaks this morning to raise temperatures a few degrees based off the observed trends this morning. Otherwise no additional major changes are anticipated through the morning. Have a wonderful Sunday morning!

SHORT TERM
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 345 AM EDT Sun May 5 2024

South Florida remains under the influence of upper level high pressure with a surface ridge displaced to the east or the peninsula.
This will keep generally easterly flow at the surface for today and into early next week. Upper levels remain too dry for significant convection, and the next two afternoons are likely to be a repeat of what we saw on Saturday. A few showers will be possible across eastern areas early in the afternoon as the sea breeze pushes inland, with the focus of convection growing over the southwest portions of the area during the evening hours. Rain chances will remain low overall without much synoptic forcing and moisture, although scattered coverage is expected across southwest portions of the area by the evening hours today and on Monday.

Forecasted afternoon highs will top out in the mid 80s to near 90 degrees across southwestern Florida with highs in the low to mid 80s across the eastern half of the area thanks to the persistent onshore flow. The overnight lows will trend in the low to mid 70s along the east coast while interior locations dip into the mid to upper 60s.

LONG TERM
(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 345 AM EDT Sun May 5 2024

Surface high pressure stays focused to the east in the Atlantic, maintaining the light to moderate east to east-southeasterly flow across the region through much of next week. 500 mb heights begin to increase into mid to late week as upper level ridging will build into the region from the west. A few showers and thunderstorms will be possible each day next week with eastern areas more likely to see any weak activity during the early afternoon hours with the inland progression of the sea breeze. The east coast breeze will continue to push further inland with slightly better chances for isolated showers or storms across Southwest Florida during the evening hours closer to sunset.

Overall rain chances will remain low through the week, but will decrease even more as upper level ridging builds towards the end of the week. High temperatures through the early portion of the period will run in the low to mid 80s along the coasts with lower 90s likely for interior areas. By the middle to late portion of the week, high temperatures will climb into the upper 80s near the coasts with mid to even upper 90s possible for interior areas. A sobering reminder that another balmy South Florida summer is just around the corner.

AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 747 AM EDT Sun May 5 2024

VFR through much of forecast period, except for bouts of sub-VFR this afternoon at APF due to showers/storms. E/ESE wind around 10 kt with higher gusts. Gulf sea breeze may impact APF and other nearby coastal terminals.

MARINE
Issued at 345 AM EDT Sun May 5 2024

Breezy to gusty easterly winds with periods of enhancement, especially across the Atlantic waters over the next several days.
Isolated to scattered rain showers and a few thunderstorms are possible each day, which could bring locally higher seas and gusty winds in and around shower/thunderstorm activity. Seas will generally remain at 2 to 4 feet in the Atlantic waters and 2 feet or less across the Gulf waters.
During wind enhancements, conditions could reach Small Craft Exercise Caution (SCEC) conditions.

BEACHES
Issued at 345 AM EDT Sun May 5 2024

Breezy easterly flow will lead to a high risk for rip currents along the Atlantic beaches through the remainder of this weekend. The risk may remain elevated early next week, especially across the Palm Beach County beaches.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Miami 84 75 85 75 / 10 10 20 10 West Kendall 86 71 86 72 / 10 10 20 10 Opa-Locka 86 72 87 73 / 10 10 20 10 Homestead 85 74 85 74 / 10 10 20 20 Fort Lauderdale 83 74 83 75 / 10 10 20 10 N Ft Lauderdale 84 74 84 74 / 10 10 20 10 Pembroke Pines 87 73 87 74 / 10 10 20 10 West Palm Beach 85 71 85 72 / 20 0 20 10 Boca Raton 86 73 85 73 / 20 10 20 10 Naples 89 71 89 72 / 30 40 20 10

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...High Rip Current Risk through this evening for FLZ168-172-173.

AM...None.
GM...None.

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Molasses Reef
Click for Map
Sun -- 12:36 AM EDT     0.00 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 04:51 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 06:42 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 06:44 AM EDT     2.46 feet High Tide
Sun -- 12:57 PM EDT     -0.29 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 05:30 PM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 07:21 PM EDT     2.68 feet High Tide
Sun -- 07:54 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Molasses Reef, Florida, Tide feet

Long Key
Click for Map
Sun -- 01:24 AM EDT     -1.44 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 04:35 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 04:53 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 06:44 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 07:35 AM EDT     1.22 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 10:24 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 01:34 PM EDT     -1.66 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 04:47 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 05:32 PM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 07:55 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 08:07 PM EDT     1.65 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 11:17 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Long Key, east of drawbridge, Florida Current, knots

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