Sunrise 6:36 AM   Sunset 8:00 PM Moonrise 10:30 AM   Moonset 12:00 AM

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GMZ042 Hawk Channel From Ocean Reef To Craig Key Out To The Reef- Hawk Channel From Craig Key To West End Of Seven Mile Bridge Out To The Reef- Hawk Channel From West End Of Seven Mile Bridge To Halfmoon Shoal Out To The Reef- 1028 Pm Edt Sun May 12 2024
Overnight - East to southeast winds near 5 knots, increasing to near 10 knots. Seas 1 foot or less, building to 1 to 2 feet. NEarshore waters smooth, becoming a light chop. Monday - East to southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet, building to around 2 feet. NEarshore waters a light to moderate chop.Monday night - East to southeast winds near 10 knots, becoming southeast 15 to 20 knots. Seas building to 2 to 4 feet, occasionally to 5 feet. NEarshore waters a moderate chop, becoming choppy.Tuesday - Southeast to south winds 15 to 20 knots, becoming southeast 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 4 feet, occasionally to 5 feet, subsiding to 2 to 3 feet. NEarshore waters choppy, becoming a light to moderate chop. Tuesday night - Southeast to south winds near 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. NEarshore waters a moderate chop. Wednesday - South to southwest winds 10 to 15 knots, becoming southwest to west 5 to 10 knots in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 feet, subsiding to 1 to 2 feet. NEarshore waters a light to moderate chop, becoming smooth to a light chop. Isolated showers. Wednesday night - Northwest to north winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming south. Seas 1 to 2 feet. NEarshore waters smooth to a light chop, becoming a light chop. Isolated showers and Thunderstorms. Thursday - Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming southwest to west. Seas 1 to 2 feet. NEarshore waters smooth to a light chop. Isolated showers and Thunderstorms. Thursday night - Variable winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming southeast. Seas around 1 foot. NEarshore waters smooth to a light chop. Isolated showers and Thunderstorms. Friday - Southeast to south winds near 10 knots. Seas around 1 foot. NEarshore waters a light chop. Isolated showers and Thunderstorms. Friday night - Southeast winds near 10 knots. Seas around 1 foot. NEarshore waters a light chop. Isolated showers and Thunderstorms.

GMZ005 Synopsis For Keys Coastal Waters From Ocean Reef To Dry Tortugas 1028 Pm Edt Sun May 12 2024
Synopsis - Breezes will continue to clock around to the east to southeast overnight. Another high pressure area will slide over the western north atlantic, resulting in gentle to moderate southeast to south breezes for much of next week. A brief bout of moderate to occasionally fresh breezes are possible Monday night into Tuesday morning and again Tuesday night.
the approximate shoreward edge of the gulf stream as of may 07, 2024 - .
54 nm south of dry tortugas light - .on loggerhead key. 30 nm south of cosgrove shoal light - .off the marquesas keys. 13 nm south of sand key light - .off key west. 8 nm south of looe key - .off big pine key. 8 nm south of sombrero key light - .off marathon. 8 nm southeast of alligator reef light - .off islamorada. 9 nm southeast of molasses reef light - .off key largo.
gulf stream information courtesy of the national weather service in key west.

FXUS62 KMFL 122310 AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 710 PM EDT Sun May 12 2024

New UPDATE, AVIATION

UPDATE
Issued at 701 PM EDT Sun May 12 2024

Quiet conditions prevail across South Florida this evening.
Another dry overnight period is expected with lows in the mid to upper 70s. No significant changes with this update.

SHORT TERM
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 1210 PM EDT Sun May 12 2024

Winds continue to veer NE, then E by late this afternoon and early evening in the wake of a FROPA. The boundary and attached weak meso low linger just south of the southern tip of the peninsula.
If model solutions prevail, the decaying boundary should begin lifting north and back across Soflo from Monday through Tuesday.
This will bring back the warmer sector right over the area, which may provide enough additional moisture for sea breeze showers (and maybe a thunderstorm) to develop with peak heating in the afternoons and evenings. Best POPs remain over the interior spine of the state, with chances increasing into the 30-40 percent by Wednesday.

Temperatures are expected to remain warm, with much of the area hitting the low 90s each afternoon. Sea breezes may keep coastal areas a bit cooler. Triple digit heat index values, particularly by Monday afternoon, point towards a developing heat illness threat for early in the work the week.

LONG TERM
(Monday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 211 PM EDT Sun May 12 2024

The H5 ridge will move overhead on Tuesday before temporarily flattening Wed/Thu in response to a shortwave trough moving through the eastern US. The ridge is then progged to rebuild northward over the area Friday into the upcoming weekend.
Generally southerly low-lvl flow will prevail on Tuesday before the flow veers more southwesterly Wednesday/Thursday ahead of a cold front which is expected to stall in the vicinity of north- central Florida. The flow late this week into the weekend will likely favor the southerly half of the compass but the zonal component will likely be largely sea-breeze driven (i.e.
southwesterly near the west coast, and southeasterly near the east coast).

Rain chances on Tuesday will be limited to isolated showers and storms near the sea-breeze boundary intersection over the interior. Storm chances on Wednesday/Thursday will be dependent upon how far south the front is able to make, and will likely be focused primarily over the northern half of the area (closer to the boundary). Additionally as the synoptic SWrly flow decreases on Thursday the east coast sea breeze may provide a secondary forcing mechanism. Can't completely rule some stronger storms each day given that flow aloft will be seasonably strong, however this risk will largely depend upon how much forcing there is to actually generate storms. A drying trend is expected Friday into the weekend as the ridge builds overhead.

Hot temperatures will prevail through the period, generally in the low to mid 90s near the coast, and mid to upper 90s over the Interior. Peak heat indices will likely push or exceed 105 degrees on Wednesday with these high values then likely persisting through the period, as any significant relief due to frontal passages or widespread rain events looks unlikely. Given the magnitude and duration of the heat (combined with warm overnight lows) heat advisories may be needed for parts of the area over the mid-late week period.

AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 701 PM EDT Sun May 12 2024

VFR conditions and easterly flow prevail through the period. A few showers and storms may be possible around sites in Broward and Palm Beach County Monday evening, although not quite enough confidence to include in TAF at this time.

MARINE
Issued at 1215 PM EDT Sun May 12 2024

Northerly winds will continue to shift east through this afternoon and evening as a decaying cold front lingers near the Keys. There might be enough lingering moisture for a few showers to develop this afternoon and evening, mainly over the Atlantic waters. The high building back in for much of the week should lower rain chances for the most part of the waters.

BEACHES
Issued at 1215 PM EDT Sun May 12 2024

An elevated risk for rip currents continues today for the Palm Beaches. The risk for rip currents will likely extend into the rest of the Atlantic beaches on Monday as easterly flow becomes stronger.

FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 208 AM EDT Sun May 12 2024

A relatively dry air mass will remain in place with minimum relative humidity values around 30 to 40 percent over the interior portions of South Florida. This combined with the lack of recent wetting rainfall could lead to enhanced fire weather conditions even with winds forecasted to remain below critical thresholds.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Miami 78 89 80 90 / 10 20 10 10 West Kendall 75 91 78 92 / 10 20 10 10 Opa-Locka 76 91 78 92 / 10 20 10 10 Homestead 77 89 79 90 / 10 20 10 10 Fort Lauderdale 78 87 80 89 / 10 30 10 20 N Ft Lauderdale 77 87 79 90 / 10 30 10 20 Pembroke Pines 78 92 79 92 / 10 20 10 10 West Palm Beach 75 87 78 91 / 10 40 10 30 Boca Raton 76 89 78 91 / 10 30 10 20 Naples 75 92 78 92 / 0 20 0 10

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.

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Molasses Reef
Click for Map
Sun -- 12:17 AM EDT     2.41 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:25 AM EDT     0.31 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 06:38 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 10:30 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 12:23 PM EDT     2.10 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:37 PM EDT     0.05 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 07:57 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Molasses Reef, Florida, Tide feet

Long Key
Click for Map
Sun -- 12:29 AM EDT     1.20 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 04:06 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 06:40 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 06:41 AM EDT     -0.85 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 09:52 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 10:32 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 12:20 PM EDT     0.64 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 03:19 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 06:39 PM EDT     -1.20 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 07:59 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 10:12 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Long Key, east of drawbridge, Florida Current, knots

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