Sunrise 6:27 AM   Sunset 7:30 PM Moonrise 9:41 PM   Moonset 7:19 AM

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PMZ021 Southern Gulf Of California- 150 Am Pdt Fri Apr 26 2024
Today - W to nw winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Period 18 seconds. Tonight - W winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Period 18 seconds. Sat - W winds 10 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Period 17 seconds. Sat night - W to nw winds 10 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Period 17 seconds. Sun - NW winds 10 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Period 13 seconds. Sun night - W to nw winds 10 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Period 14 seconds. Mon - Variable winds less than 5 kt. Seas 3 ft or less in S swell. Period 12 seconds. Mon night - SW winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft or less. Period 13 seconds. Tue - S to sw winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft or less. Period 12 seconds. Tue night - SW winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft or less. Period 12 seconds.

PMZ005
No data

FXUS64 KMAF 261707 AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 1207 PM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

New AVIATION

SHORT TERM
(Today through Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 315 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

A Pacific front continues to move across the area this morning with a few storms along the leading edge. Behind the front, winds have switched to the west with drier air filtering in. Stronger winds aloft will mix to the surface by afternoon with gusts 20-30 mph for most locations. Highs will generally be in the 80s with 90s confined to the Rio Grande.

Another storm system will take shape over the Four Corners region early Saturday. Height falls ahead of this system will help pull low level moisture back west across the area. A short wave will move across the area Saturday morning helping to generate an isolated shower or storm across mainly the eastern Permian Basin. As the storm lifts into the Front Range of the Rockies by afternoon, the dryline will slide east before stalling somewhere over the eastern Permian Basin. Temperatures look similar to today with highs generally in the 80s/90s.

LONG TERM
(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 315 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

The beginning of the long term marks the *brief* end of moisture and storm chances with the passage of the next trough on Saturday evening. Any storms that develop along the dryline/Pacific front Saturday evening will quickly be out of the area with westerly winds shoving the moisture to the Hill Country. After a weak shortwave early Monday, upper flow returns to quasi-zonal through mid-week.
This induces lee troughing and allows low level moisture-rich return flow to resharpen the dryline up against the higher terrain with better moisture lingering for the eastern 2/3rds of the area for the remainder of the week. Forcing does not arrive until the next trough sometime Wednesday/Thursday which brings about the next storm chances.

Temperatures will be a touch cooler on Sunday compared to Saturday behind the Pacific front but high temperatures quickly return to the 90s by Tuesday as the low level thermal ridge restrengthens.
Increased cloud cover with the incoming trough mid week brings temperatures a little closer to normal for the tail-end of the week.

-Munyan

AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1206 PM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

VFR conditions will remain through the period. Gusty westerly winds will diminish and become more southerly after 00Z.

Hennig

FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 315 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

The Pacific front has been surging through the region early this morning, shoving all of the low level moisture well to the east by this afternoon. Critical humidity overtakes the region today with single digit RH anticipated south and west of the Pecos. However, winds will be significantly lighter than yesterday, but still sustained around 20kts for the northern counties. For today's fire threat, there are conflicting signals overall, with the strongest winds aligning with RH closer to 15 percent and lighter winds found further south where RH will be more like 5 percent. Adding ERCs into the mix, most of the region is at or below the 50th percentile except for the lower Trans Pecos where ERCs are at the 75th percentile. So despite RFTIs peaking around 4-6 for a few hours this afternoon, will generally classify today's fire risk as near- critical. As such, have opted to issue an RFD for today for the Southeast New Mexico Plains southward through the western high terrain and into the Big Bend.

As for tomorrow, winds restrengthen as the next trough approaches, especially across the Southeast New Mexico Plains and western high terrain. Similarly dry conditions seen today persist for Saturday along with poor overnight recovery tonight. Between the increased winds and slightly degraded ERCs after today's dry conditions, critical fire conditions should develop and have issued a Fire Weather Watch for these locations.

Saturday marks the end of fire concerns for the near future. Winds relax for Sunday and Monday and despite dry conditions persisting, fire concerns stay low. Much better moisture recovery returns by Tuesday with minimum afternoon humidities only falling to 20-30+ percent through the remainder of the week.

-Munyan

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Big Spring 85 58 86 54 / 0 20 20 30 Carlsbad 82 54 78 49 / 0 0 0 0 Dryden 91 61 94 59 / 0 0 0 20 Fort Stockton 88 56 91 55 / 0 0 0 10 Guadalupe Pass 73 53 69 48 / 0 0 0 0 Hobbs 81 53 78 47 / 0 0 0 0 Marfa 79 45 81 42 / 0 0 0 0 Midland Intl Airport 84 58 84 55 / 0 10 0 20 Odessa 84 58 84 55 / 0 10 0 10 Wink 86 55 85 52 / 0 0 0 0

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...High Wind Warning from 7 AM CDT /6 AM MDT/ Saturday to 1 AM CDT /midnight MDT/ Sunday for Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains.

Fire Weather Watch from Saturday afternoon through Saturday evening for Central Brewster County-Chinati Mountains- Chisos Basin-Davis Mountains-Davis Mountains Foothills- Eastern Culberson County-Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-Lower Brewster County- Marfa Plateau-Presidio Valley-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor.

NM...High Wind Warning from 6 AM Saturday to midnight MDT Saturday night for Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

Fire Weather Watch from Saturday afternoon through Saturday evening for Chaves Plains-Eddy Plains-Lea-Sacramento Foothills and Guadalupe Mountains.

Topolobampo
Click for Map
Fri -- 05:08 AM MST     -0.29 meters Low Tide
Fri -- 05:42 AM MST     Sunrise
Fri -- 07:18 AM MST     Moonset
Fri -- 11:43 AM MST     0.62 meters High Tide
Fri -- 03:48 PM MST     0.40 meters Low Tide
Fri -- 06:44 PM MST     Sunset
Fri -- 09:40 PM MST     Moonrise
Fri -- 09:59 PM MST     1.23 meters High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Topolobampo, Sinaloa, Mexico, Tide feet

Yavaros
Click for Map
Fri -- 04:55 AM MST     -0.21 meters Low Tide
Fri -- 05:43 AM MST     Sunrise
Fri -- 07:18 AM MST     Moonset
Fri -- 11:37 AM MST     0.80 meters High Tide
Fri -- 03:57 PM MST     0.52 meters Low Tide
Fri -- 06:48 PM MST     Sunset
Fri -- 09:45 PM MST     Moonrise
Fri -- 10:02 PM MST     1.22 meters High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Yavaros, Sonora, Mexico, Tide feet

Full Color Weather Map

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