Sunrise 6:13 AM   Sunset 7:41 PM Moonrise 3:45 PM   Moonset 3:00 AM

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PMZ021 Southern Gulf Of California- 858 Am Pdt Sun May 19 2024
This afternoon - Variable winds less than 5 kt, becoming W to nw 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 ft or less. Period 17 seconds.Tonight - W winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft or less. Period 17 seconds. Mon - SW winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft or less, becoming 4 ft in the afternoon. Period 17 seconds. Mon night - W winds 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. Period 17 seconds. Tue - W winds 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. Period 17 seconds. Tue night - W to nw winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft or less. Period 16 seconds. Wed - Variable winds less than 5 kt. Seas 3 ft or less. Period 16 seconds. Wed night - S to sw winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft or less. Period 15 seconds. Thu - S to sw winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft or less. Period 15 seconds. Thu night - SW winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft or less. Period 14 seconds.

PMZ005
No data

FXUS64 KMAF 191914 AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 214 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024

New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER

SHORT TERM
(This afternoon through Monday night)
Issued at 204 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024

WV imagery shows that the upper ridge has moved off to the MS Valley, leaving zonal-to-southwest flow aloft over West Texas and Southeast New Mexico. Leeside troughing will strengthen this afternoon, increasing westerlies over the higher terrain, and return flow in the east. Downslope warming, maximum insolation, and increasing thicknesses will yield the first widespread triple- digit day of the spring.

Tonight, a 45+kt LLJ is set to develop, sharpening up a dryline mid-CWA and advecting Gulf moisture into the area. Despite mostly clear skies, these increased winds/moisture will keep overnight minimums 6-8F above normal.

Monday, surface winds aren't expected to be as hardy as today.
Despite increasing thicknesses, a lesser downslope warming component will result in afternoon highs just a bit cooler than today's. In fact, temperatures will be close enough to today's to just extend the current heat advisory through Monday afternoon.

Monday night, a slightly stronger LLJ is forecast to redevelop under increasing cloudiness, resulting in the warmest lows yet this spring...~ 10-12F above normal, as many areas remain 70 or above.

LONG TERM
(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 204 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024

An upper trough moving northeast from the Desert SW passes to the north Tuesday, tightening the pressure gradient and resulting in increased westerly downsloping winds, but also increased clouds.
As increased clouds limit diurnal heating, highs Tuesday remain above average but cooler than Monday, mainly 90s, 80s confined to the westernmost and northernmost SE NM plains as well as higher elevations of West Texas, and triple digit heat only encompassing far eastern Permian Basin, Stockton Plateau, and near the Rio Grande. 110+ degree readings continue to be confined to the Big Bend. Given short and long term numerical guidance and increased clouds, went with 1:1 blend of NBM 25th and 75th percentile for highs Tuesday. Increased clouds limit radiational cooling Tuesday night, which along with persistent southerly flow, keep lows 5 to 10 degrees above average and mainly in the 60s aside from 70s from the southeastern Permian Basin and eastern Stockton Plateau into the Rio Grande, and 50s over the northernmost SE NM plains in CAA behind a cold front. This front moves south through Wednesday.
Atop slightly cooler and more humid air behind this front, another trough moves in from the west, providing additional lift east of the dryline for a few storms across the far eastern Permian Basin Wednesday evening into Thursday. However, even with cooler and more humid air behind the front, moisture in low levels will not be sufficient for more than a few hundredths of rainfall where storms occur. Highs Wednesday remain 5 to 10 degrees above average in the upper 80s and 90s, 100s confined to the Rio Grande. Lows Wednesday night stay warmer than average but will be cooler than Tuesday night. Thursday into Friday, ridging builds back in the wake of the trough, with highs in the 90s, 80s over the highest elevations, 100s across parts of the Stockton Plateau, and 105+ readings near the Rio Grande. We'll see the same story but warmer for highs Friday. Lows Thursday and Friday nights will be similar to Wednesday night. As ridging persists, more widespread triple digit highs are forecast for southeastern parts of the area this weekend, with lows remaining warmer than average.

AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1008 AM CDT Sun May 19 2024

VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours. Aside from a few cu invof KMAF this afternoon, CAVU conditions are expected. Gusty southwest surface winds this afternoon will decrease after sundown, but remain elevated overnight, courtesy of a 45+kt LLJ.
Light southwest surface flow is anticipated Monday.

FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 204 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024

For the past several weeks, little to no rain has fallen southwest of the Pecos River, with spots along and west of the Trans Pecos not seeing much measurable rainfall in the past several months. With upper level ridging remaining over the area into the middle portion of next week, along with a dryline that sharpened this weekend remaining mainly east of the area, sunny skies, min RH well below critical 15% level and down into the single digits over SE NM into the higher elevations of West Texas and down into the Big Bend, and critically dry fuels with ERCs at or above 90th percentile and up to the 97th percentile in the Big Bend will all contribute to fire weather concerns. Poor overnight recovery and southerly flow maintaining warmer than average overnight temperatures will also maintain elevated to critical fire weather conditions from Southeast New Mexico into the Big Bend. However, light 20ft winds today through Tuesday limit fire weather concerns somewhat. RFTIs at or above 4 will be present for much of the area north of the Rio Grande valleys today, but will be mainly over the SE NM plains Monday. As an upper level trough moves northeast out of the Desert SW and passes to the north of the area, a tightened pressure gradient results in increased westerly downsloping winds Tuesday. However, increased clouds developing from lift associated with this trough limit diurnal heating and lead to cooler temperatures over much of the area, with RFTIs remaining capped below Red Flag criteria. With a cold front and another trough moving into the area Wednesday into Thursday, cooler temperatures and increased clouds will decrease but not eliminate fire weather concerns, as temperatures still remain above average, low level moisture scant, and little to no rainfall expected even where storms occur. Storm chances will be confined to the eastern Permian Basin, so we are not expecting fire starts from dry lightning over the westernmost portions of the area with the driest fuels, although fire starts from lightning are possible in the eastern Permian Basin. In wake of the cold front and upper trough, upper level ridging builds in again, with another warming and drying trend increasing fire weather concerns into next weekend, with elevated to critical conditions indicated over the SE NM plains into northern Culberson County.

With min RH as low as the single digits, an early season heatwave with highs 10 to 15 degrees above average under sunny skies, and critically dry fuels with ERCs around the 90th percentile over westernmost regions and as high as the 97th percentile over the Big Bend, a Fire Danger Statement is in effect this afternoon through early evening from Southeast New Mexico down into the higher terrain of West Texas and the Big Bend.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Big Spring 69 101 74 100 / 0 0 0 0 Carlsbad 63 100 68 93 / 0 0 0 0 Dryden 70 103 75 103 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Stockton 68 103 71 102 / 0 0 0 0 Guadalupe Pass 65 90 67 83 / 0 0 0 0 Hobbs 62 97 65 92 / 0 0 0 0 Marfa 57 96 58 92 / 0 0 0 0 Midland Intl Airport 67 100 72 98 / 0 0 0 0 Odessa 68 100 73 98 / 0 0 0 0 Wink 65 103 68 99 / 0 0 0 0

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for Chisos Basin-Davis Mountains-Lower Brewster County.

NM...None.

Topolobampo
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Sun -- 01:53 AM MST     0.07 meters Low Tide
Sun -- 03:00 AM MST     Moonset
Sun -- 05:28 AM MST     Sunrise
Sun -- 08:01 AM MST     0.75 meters High Tide
Sun -- 01:21 PM MST     0.29 meters Low Tide
Sun -- 03:44 PM MST     Moonrise
Sun -- 06:57 PM MST     Sunset
Sun -- 07:34 PM MST     1.09 meters High Tide
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Topolobampo, Sinaloa, Mexico, Tide feet

Yavaros
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Sun -- 02:01 AM MST     0.14 meters Low Tide
Sun -- 03:02 AM MST     Moonset
Sun -- 05:28 AM MST     Sunrise
Sun -- 08:03 AM MST     0.81 meters High Tide
Sun -- 01:26 PM MST     0.32 meters Low Tide
Sun -- 03:46 PM MST     Moonrise
Sun -- 07:00 PM MST     Sunset
Sun -- 07:36 PM MST     1.09 meters High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Yavaros, Sonora, Mexico, Tide feet

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