Sunrise 6:23 AM   Sunset 7:33 PM Moonrise 2:00 AM   Moonset 1:19 PM

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PMZ021 Southern Gulf Of California- 817 Am Pdt Thu May 2 2024
Today - S to sw winds 10 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Period 18 seconds.Tonight - SW winds 10 kt, shifting to W to nw late. Seas 3 ft or less. Period 16 seconds. Fri - W winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft or less. Period 15 seconds. Fri night - Variable winds less than 5 kt, becoming sw to W 10 kt late. Seas 3 ft or less. Period 14 seconds. Sat - W winds 10 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Period 12 seconds. Sat night - SW to W winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 ft or less. Period 11 seconds. Sun - W to nw winds 10 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Period 14 seconds. Sun night - W winds 10 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Period 16 seconds. Mon - NW winds 10 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Period 16 seconds. Mon night - W to nw winds 10 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Period 16 seconds.

FXUS64 KMAF 021920 AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 220 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024

New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM

SHORT TERM
(This afternoon through Friday night)
Issued at 149 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024

WV imagery shows the upper trough over SoCal/Baja, where it will be reinforced by a series of shortwaves for the next few days, leaving West Texas and Southeast New Mexico under southwest flow aloft. At the surface, mesoanalysis shows the dryline has mixed east of KMAF, and lies over the eastern fringes of the CWA Just to the north lies a cold front, and much of what it does tonight will determine what happens tomorrow. Currently, a triple point is developing invof Scurry County, and this may result in some convection late this afternoon/evening over Scurry/Mitchell Counties. Additional convection north and east may accelerate the front southwest into the area overnight, w/the NAM and CAMs in pretty good agreement on 12Z runs of banking it up against the higher terrain by Friday morning before lifting it ahead of a warm front to the south.
Despite the front, there is increase in moisture behind it, and doesn't look to be too much cooling. Overnight lows should be ~ 5-7F above normal.

Friday, there will be a little residual cooling behind the front, but temperatures will remain ~ 5-7F above normal. There's a chance of convection along the aforementioned boundaries, especially in better moisture in the east. Steep mid-level lapse rates and modest deep-layer shear will continue a severe threat.

This convection will continue into the evening hours, dwindling after 06Z. A 30+kt LLJ will keep mixing in play, and lows 7-9F above normal.

LONG TERM
(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 149 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024

The forecast for this weekend remains wet for most locations east of the Pecos River, which is a welcomed sight. A southern stream shortwave trough is expected to lift out of Mexico into the southern Great Plains during the afternoon and evening on Saturday. This coincides with the dryline backing up to near the Texas/New Mexico state line and a cold front, transitioning to a broad effective warm front, over the northern Permian Basin. The axis of greatest moisture is expected to impinge on the intersection of these two features resulting in widespread thunderstorm development by mid to late afternoon as the trough approaches. This may quickly congeal into a mesoscale system as it translates east across portions of southeast New Mexico and much of the Permian Basin. Severe weather may be possible with any thunderstorms as sufficient destabilization is expected with temperatures warming well into the 80s and even some 90s combined with increasing flow fields with the approaching trough. Additionally, forecast precipitable water values may well exceed the 90th percentile for this time of year. This supports the threat of very heavy rainfall with the potential for flash flooding.
Any thunderstorms slowly slide east into the evening and overnight.
This convection may further be supported by the low-level jet as the trough moves overhead, keeping rain chances into a good portion of early Sunday morning. Overall, a good inch or more of rainfall may result from this convection, especially with eastern extent.

Convection is expected to have weakened or exited the region by late Sunday morning. Clouds and rain overnight should keep morning low temperatures mild in the 50s and 60s. Temperatures on Sunday may be a touch cooler across much of the area over Saturday, especially in areas that receive significant rainfall. Another round of thunderstorms may be possible again by afternoon across the eastern third of the region but this remains a bit uncertain. The dryline will be somewhat diffuse, with an upper-low of the Great Basin and subsidence behind the departing shortwave from Saturday. This may suppress more vigorous thunderstorm development but at least scattered thunderstorms remain likely across eastern portions of the region.

The upper-low over the Great Basin begins to progress to the east by the start of the new week. Unfortunately, this system begins to open and take on a negative tilt as it moves into the central Great Plains, leading to the dryline pushing east. At this time, the dryline appears to be shunted just east of the entire area keeping us dry with breezy southwesterly winds. Quasi-zonal flow throughout the column then takes over as we move through Tuesday and Wednesday with no rain in sight. Thursday may have a cold front sneak into the northern portions of the region as a large trough axis develops across the central Great Plains into Midwest but this is subject to change at this juncture. Regardless, expect warm temperatures mainly in the 90s and plentiful sun for the new week.

-Chehak

AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1046 AM CDT Thu May 2 2024

VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours. Latest sfc analysis puts the dryline just west of KMAF, mixing east. We may pop a few cu at KMAF before the dryline passes, but otherwise few clouds expected. Cold front progression overnight is still up in the air, but latest NAM suggests it'll make it through KMAF/KHOB/KINK at least. NAM tries to bring in low clouds, but the NBM holds off, and so will we.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Big Spring 62 88 63 84 / 10 40 40 70 Carlsbad 56 92 60 87 / 0 0 10 30 Dryden 66 92 68 88 / 0 20 20 40 Fort Stockton 59 93 65 92 / 0 20 20 50 Guadalupe Pass 58 83 58 82 / 0 0 0 20 Hobbs 57 88 59 83 / 0 10 20 60 Marfa 50 89 53 88 / 0 0 10 20 Midland Intl Airport 61 89 63 84 / 0 30 30 60 Odessa 62 89 65 86 / 0 20 30 60 Wink 60 94 63 89 / 0 10 20 50

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...None.
NM...None.

Topolobampo
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Thu -- 12:24 AM MST     0.60 meters Low Tide
Thu -- 01:59 AM MST     Moonrise
Thu -- 04:49 AM MST     0.73 meters High Tide
Thu -- 05:38 AM MST     Sunrise
Thu -- 12:12 PM MST     -0.11 meters Low Tide
Thu -- 01:18 PM MST     Moonset
Thu -- 06:48 PM MST     Sunset
Thu -- 07:23 PM MST     0.91 meters High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Topolobampo, Sinaloa, Mexico, Tide feet

Yavaros
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Thu -- 01:00 AM MST     0.67 meters Low Tide
Thu -- 02:03 AM MST     Moonrise
Thu -- 04:47 AM MST     0.77 meters High Tide
Thu -- 05:38 AM MST     Sunrise
Thu -- 12:07 PM MST     -0.01 meters Low Tide
Thu -- 01:19 PM MST     Moonset
Thu -- 06:51 PM MST     Sunset
Thu -- 07:22 PM MST     1.02 meters High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Yavaros, Sonora, Mexico, Tide feet

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