Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for South Padre Island, TX
March 19, 2024 12:32 AM CDT (05:32 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 7:32 AM Sunset 7:42 PM Moonrise 1:59 PM Moonset 3:26 AM |
GMZ130 Laguna Madre From The Port Of Brownsville To The Arroyo Colorado- Laguna Madre From The Arroyo Colorado To 5 Nm North Of Port Mansfield Tx- Laguna Madre From 5 Nm North Of Port Mansfield To Baffin Bay Tx- 1229 Am Cdt Tue Mar 19 2024
.small craft advisory in effect until 1 am cdt early this morning - .
Today - Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots increasing to 10 to 15 knots this afternoon. Light chop on the bay becoming a moderate chop this afternoon.
Tonight - East winds 10 to 15 knots becoming southeast 5 to 10 knots after midnight. A moderate chop on the bay becoming light chop after midnight.
Wednesday - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots increasing to 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Light chop on the bay becoming a moderate chop in the afternoon. A slight chance of showers in the afternoon.
Wednesday night - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots decreasing to 5 to 10 knots after midnight. A moderate chop on the bay becoming light chop after midnight. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening, then a chance of showers and Thunderstorms after midnight.
Thursday - South winds 5 to 10 knots becoming north in the afternoon. Light chop on the bay. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Thursday night - Northeast winds around 10 knots becoming southeast after midnight. Light chop on the bay.
Friday - Northwest winds around 5 knots becoming northeast in the afternoon. Smooth on the bay becoming light chop in the afternoon.
Friday night - East winds 5 to 10 knots. Light chop on the bay.
Saturday - East winds 5 to 10 knots. Light chop on the bay.
Saturday night - Southeast winds around 10 knots. Light chop on the bay.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
GMZ100 1229 Am Cdt Tue Mar 19 2024
Synopsis - Small craft advisories remain in effect for the laguna madre and lower texas coastal gulf waters till later this afternoon. Conditions should gradually improve through the day today as high pressure settles. The ridge passes to the east today with southeast winds and more favorable marine conditions returning midweek. Rain chances return Wednesday and Thursday.
Area Discussion for - Brownsville, TX
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FXUS64 KBRO 190515 AFDBRO
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Brownsville TX 1215 AM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024
New AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(Tonight through Tuesday night)
Issued at 206 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024
The forecast remains of track. The Rex block pattern that has been highlighted the past few days will continue to hold through early Tuesday. Southwesterly flow aloft will continue to push some perturbations through Deep South Texas and with the continued weak overrunning will bring a continued to chance for drizzle, showers and maybe even a few thunderstorms through early evening. Tuesday, the Rex block begins to break down with drier conditions and more zonal flow returning to Deep South Texas.
Temperatures will remain on the cool side through the remainder of the forecast. Overnight lows will be in the upper 50s to lows 60s and highs for Tuesday will only reach the mid 60s to low 70s with plenty of cloud cover remaining.
Beach hazards continue into early Tuesday. A High Rip Current Risk and High Surf Advisory are in effect into tonight, with an accompanying Coastal Flood Statement through this evening. This will lead to narrow beaches through the afternoon, with already narrow beaches potentially becoming impassable. May need a Coastal Flood Advisory if observed water levels pop above guidance this afternoon or tidal run-up reaches the dunes. Some guidance follows with another round of tidal run-up Tuesday afternoon or evening, but remains confidence is low at this time.
LONG TERM
(Wednesday through next Monday)
Issued at 206 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024
Latest Model suite remain in good agreement and consistency with the mid-level trough tracking across the Desert SW/Southern Plains Wed- Thursday. At the surface, cyclogenesis takes place near the lower Texas coast Wednesday with the low tracking steadily northeast Thursday. Flat ridge settles over Texas through the weekend with fair and seasonal weather in the works. A large synoptic scale trough moves into the western third of the country Sunday and early next week which may result in increasing southerly winds
Increasing forcing and lift is expected later Wednesday and more so wednesday night as low level convergence from the developing surface low and frontogenesis combines with the approaching mid- level trough. Boundary layer warm advection and cooling aloft from the trough will quickly destabilize the atmosphere. Best rain chances are on tap for Wednesday night with a few stronger thunderstorms not out of equation. At this time, NBM pops have been bumped up to 30-50 percent while the GFS is 50-70 and ECMWF is 50-80 . QPF values are coming in at 0.10-0.50 inches which would only add to the beneficial rain as of late. The remainder of the forecast looks dry and fair with the exception to later Sunday and Monday when southerly winds return possibly becoming windy across the lower RGV.
Temperatures to remain seasonal with near to slighlty above mid-late March averages of 80-84 degree. Another surge of high pressure settles to our east over the weekend slowing down the warming trend with the latest model guidance holding temperatures in the 80s with no 90s showing up until next Monday. Lows look to remain comfortable also near to slightly above the seasonal normal of 58-64 degree.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1214 AM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024
Through 06z Thursday....VFR conditions are expected to prevail throughout the overnight period and into Tuesday morning. There is the chance for MVFR ceilings to develop after 18z due to increased marine layer influences for the Gulf of Mexico as winds shift out of the east. VFR conditions can then return Tuesday night.
Northeast winds 5-12 kts tonight are expected to shift out of the east between 5-10 kts during the day on Tuesday. These winds will continue into Tuesday night or for the remainder of the 06z TAF period.
MARINE
Issued at 206 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024
Tonight through Tuesday night...Hazardous marine conditions are anticipated through tonight due to elevated winds and seas behind a cold front that moved through on Sunday. Winds will decrease tonight, but seas will remain elevated for the offshore waters until early Tuesday afternoon. Small Craft advisories are currently in effect. By Tuesday night favorable conditions will return.
Wednesday through Monday...Low pressure to develop near the lower Texas coast later Wednesday tracking northeast across the western Gulf Thursday. Unsettled weather along with variable SE-E light winds are expected Wednesday turning northwest at light to moderate speeds as the low tracks northeast Thursday. Weak ridge settles to the east of coastal waters Friday and Weekend with moderate southeast winds and a moderate sea.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 69 63 73 69 / 10 10 20 30 HARLINGEN 71 59 75 65 / 10 0 20 40 MCALLEN 71 61 76 68 / 10 10 20 40 RIO GRANDE CITY 69 59 75 65 / 10 10 10 30 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 68 64 70 68 / 10 0 20 30 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 69 61 73 66 / 10 0 20 40
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...High Rip Current Risk until 7 AM CDT this morning for TXZ451-454- 455.
until 1 AM CDT early this morning for TXZ451-454-455.
High Surf Advisory until 7 AM CDT this morning for TXZ451-454- 455.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM CDT early this morning for GMZ130-132-135.
Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT this morning for GMZ150-155.
Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for GMZ170- 175.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Brownsville TX 1215 AM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024
New AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(Tonight through Tuesday night)
Issued at 206 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024
The forecast remains of track. The Rex block pattern that has been highlighted the past few days will continue to hold through early Tuesday. Southwesterly flow aloft will continue to push some perturbations through Deep South Texas and with the continued weak overrunning will bring a continued to chance for drizzle, showers and maybe even a few thunderstorms through early evening. Tuesday, the Rex block begins to break down with drier conditions and more zonal flow returning to Deep South Texas.
Temperatures will remain on the cool side through the remainder of the forecast. Overnight lows will be in the upper 50s to lows 60s and highs for Tuesday will only reach the mid 60s to low 70s with plenty of cloud cover remaining.
Beach hazards continue into early Tuesday. A High Rip Current Risk and High Surf Advisory are in effect into tonight, with an accompanying Coastal Flood Statement through this evening. This will lead to narrow beaches through the afternoon, with already narrow beaches potentially becoming impassable. May need a Coastal Flood Advisory if observed water levels pop above guidance this afternoon or tidal run-up reaches the dunes. Some guidance follows with another round of tidal run-up Tuesday afternoon or evening, but remains confidence is low at this time.
LONG TERM
(Wednesday through next Monday)
Issued at 206 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024
Latest Model suite remain in good agreement and consistency with the mid-level trough tracking across the Desert SW/Southern Plains Wed- Thursday. At the surface, cyclogenesis takes place near the lower Texas coast Wednesday with the low tracking steadily northeast Thursday. Flat ridge settles over Texas through the weekend with fair and seasonal weather in the works. A large synoptic scale trough moves into the western third of the country Sunday and early next week which may result in increasing southerly winds
Increasing forcing and lift is expected later Wednesday and more so wednesday night as low level convergence from the developing surface low and frontogenesis combines with the approaching mid- level trough. Boundary layer warm advection and cooling aloft from the trough will quickly destabilize the atmosphere. Best rain chances are on tap for Wednesday night with a few stronger thunderstorms not out of equation. At this time, NBM pops have been bumped up to 30-50 percent while the GFS is 50-70 and ECMWF is 50-80 . QPF values are coming in at 0.10-0.50 inches which would only add to the beneficial rain as of late. The remainder of the forecast looks dry and fair with the exception to later Sunday and Monday when southerly winds return possibly becoming windy across the lower RGV.
Temperatures to remain seasonal with near to slighlty above mid-late March averages of 80-84 degree. Another surge of high pressure settles to our east over the weekend slowing down the warming trend with the latest model guidance holding temperatures in the 80s with no 90s showing up until next Monday. Lows look to remain comfortable also near to slightly above the seasonal normal of 58-64 degree.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1214 AM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024
Through 06z Thursday....VFR conditions are expected to prevail throughout the overnight period and into Tuesday morning. There is the chance for MVFR ceilings to develop after 18z due to increased marine layer influences for the Gulf of Mexico as winds shift out of the east. VFR conditions can then return Tuesday night.
Northeast winds 5-12 kts tonight are expected to shift out of the east between 5-10 kts during the day on Tuesday. These winds will continue into Tuesday night or for the remainder of the 06z TAF period.
MARINE
Issued at 206 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024
Tonight through Tuesday night...Hazardous marine conditions are anticipated through tonight due to elevated winds and seas behind a cold front that moved through on Sunday. Winds will decrease tonight, but seas will remain elevated for the offshore waters until early Tuesday afternoon. Small Craft advisories are currently in effect. By Tuesday night favorable conditions will return.
Wednesday through Monday...Low pressure to develop near the lower Texas coast later Wednesday tracking northeast across the western Gulf Thursday. Unsettled weather along with variable SE-E light winds are expected Wednesday turning northwest at light to moderate speeds as the low tracks northeast Thursday. Weak ridge settles to the east of coastal waters Friday and Weekend with moderate southeast winds and a moderate sea.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 69 63 73 69 / 10 10 20 30 HARLINGEN 71 59 75 65 / 10 0 20 40 MCALLEN 71 61 76 68 / 10 10 20 40 RIO GRANDE CITY 69 59 75 65 / 10 10 10 30 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 68 64 70 68 / 10 0 20 30 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 69 61 73 66 / 10 0 20 40
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...High Rip Current Risk until 7 AM CDT this morning for TXZ451-454- 455.
until 1 AM CDT early this morning for TXZ451-454-455.
High Surf Advisory until 7 AM CDT this morning for TXZ451-454- 455.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM CDT early this morning for GMZ130-132-135.
Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT this morning for GMZ150-155.
Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for GMZ170- 175.
Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air Temp | Water Temp | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
BZST2 | 3 mi | 44 min | NNE 20G | 67°F | 70°F | 30.12 | ||
PCGT2 - 8779748 - South Padre Island CGS, TX | 3 mi | 44 min | NNE 8G | 67°F | 69°F | 30.16 | ||
PTIT2 - 8779770 - Port Isabel, TX | 4 mi | 44 min | NNE 14G | 67°F | 73°F | 30.17 | ||
RLIT2 | 12 mi | 44 min | NNE 14G | 67°F | 65°F | 30.18 | ||
PMNT2 | 34 mi | 44 min | 65°F | 73°F | 30.18 |
toggle option: (graph/table)
Airport Reports
EDIT (hide/show)  Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
KPIL PORT ISABELCAMERON COUNTY,TX | 11 sm | 39 min | NNE 08 | 10 sm | Overcast | 64°F | 52°F | 64% | 30.20 | |
KBRO BROWNSVILLE/SOUTH PADRE ISLAND INTL,TX | 20 sm | 39 min | NNE 09 | 10 sm | Overcast | 66°F | 54°F | 64% | 30.19 |
Padre Island (South)
Click for Map
Mon -- 03:37 AM CDT Moonset
Mon -- 04:32 AM CDT -0.46 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:34 AM CDT Sunrise
Mon -- 02:01 PM CDT Moonrise
Mon -- 03:08 PM CDT 1.55 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:39 PM CDT Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Mon -- 03:37 AM CDT Moonset
Mon -- 04:32 AM CDT -0.46 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:34 AM CDT Sunrise
Mon -- 02:01 PM CDT Moonrise
Mon -- 03:08 PM CDT 1.55 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:39 PM CDT Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Padre Island (South), Texas, Tide feet
12 am |
0.3 |
1 am |
0.1 |
2 am |
-0.2 |
3 am |
-0.3 |
4 am |
-0.4 |
5 am |
-0.5 |
6 am |
-0.4 |
7 am |
-0.2 |
8 am |
0.1 |
9 am |
0.4 |
10 am |
0.7 |
11 am |
1 |
12 pm |
1.3 |
1 pm |
1.4 |
2 pm |
1.5 |
3 pm |
1.6 |
4 pm |
1.5 |
5 pm |
1.5 |
6 pm |
1.4 |
7 pm |
1.4 |
8 pm |
1.3 |
9 pm |
1.2 |
10 pm |
1.1 |
11 pm |
0.9 |
Matamoros
Click for Map
Mon -- 02:38 AM CST Moonset
Mon -- 04:05 AM CST -0.31 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:35 AM CST Sunrise
Mon -- 01:03 PM CST Moonrise
Mon -- 02:48 PM CST 1.40 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:40 PM CST Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Mon -- 02:38 AM CST Moonset
Mon -- 04:05 AM CST -0.31 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:35 AM CST Sunrise
Mon -- 01:03 PM CST Moonrise
Mon -- 02:48 PM CST 1.40 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:40 PM CST Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Matamoros, Tamaulipas, Mexico, Tide feet
12 am |
0.3 |
1 am |
0.1 |
2 am |
-0.1 |
3 am |
-0.3 |
4 am |
-0.3 |
5 am |
-0.3 |
6 am |
-0.2 |
7 am |
0 |
8 am |
0.3 |
9 am |
0.5 |
10 am |
0.8 |
11 am |
1 |
12 pm |
1.2 |
1 pm |
1.3 |
2 pm |
1.4 |
3 pm |
1.4 |
4 pm |
1.4 |
5 pm |
1.3 |
6 pm |
1.3 |
7 pm |
1.2 |
8 pm |
1.1 |
9 pm |
1 |
10 pm |
0.9 |
11 pm |
0.8 |
Brownsville, TX,
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