Wednesday, November14, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
South Padre Island, TX

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:46AMSunset 5:42PM Wednesday November 14, 2018 2:21 PM CST (20:21 UTC) Moonrise 12:35PMMoonset 11:43PM Illumination 42% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 7 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ130 Laguna Madre From The Port Of Brownsville To The Arroyo Colorado- Laguna Madre From The Arroyo Colorado To 5 Nm North Of Port Mansfield Tx- Laguna Madre From 5 Nm North Of Port Mansfield To Baffin Bay Tx- 929 Am Cst Wed Nov 14 2018
.small craft should exercise caution...
Rest of today..Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Choppy on the bay subsiding to a moderate chop in the afternoon.
Tonight..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots. A light chop on the bay.
Thursday..West winds 5 to 10 knots becoming northeast in the afternoon. A light chop on the bay subsiding to smooth in the afternoon.
Thursday night..Southeast winds around 5 knots shifting south after midnight. Smooth on the bay.
Friday..Southwest winds around 5 knots becoming southeast in the afternoon. Smooth on the bay building to a light chop in the afternoon.
Friday night..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. A light chop on the bay.
Saturday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots increasing to 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. A light chop on the bay building to a moderate chop in the afternoon.
Saturday night..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. A moderate chop on the bay. Chance of showers.
Sunday..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. A moderate chop on the bay. Chance of showers.
Sunday night..East winds 10 to 15 knots diminishing to 5 to 10 knots after midnight. A moderate chop on the bay subsiding to a light chop after midnight. Chance of showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms.
GMZ100 Synopsis For Baffin Bay To Rio Grande Out 60 Nm- 929 Am Cst Wed Nov 14 2018
Synopsis.. Moderate to strong winds and adverse marine conditions continue across gulf waters through this afternoon as high pressure continues to build into deep south texas. Choppy bay conditions continue into this afternoon. Winds and seas begin to diminish later today and overnight with light winds and seas Thursday into the weekend. Winds and seas increase again on Sunday, as the next front potentially approaches the lower texas coast.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near South Padre Island, TX
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location: 26.11, -97.16     debug


Area Discussion for - Brownsville, TX
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Fxus64 kbro 141709
afdbro
area forecast discussion
national weather service brownsville tx
issued by national weather service austin san antonio tx
1109 am cst Wed nov 14 2018

Discussion Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

Aviation
Vfr conditions are expected today across south texas with clear
skies. North winds will be around 12-15 knots this afternoon for
the coastal areas with speeds diminishing to 5 knots overnight.

Prev discussion issued issued by national weather service austin san antonio tx
10 am update...

forecast on track, no major updates needed. Enjoy the cool, sunny
day!
prev discussion... Issued 526 am cst Wed nov 14 2018
discussion... Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

Aviation...VFR conditions continue through the period with high
clouds early this morning clearing by this afternoon. Light to
moderate northerly winds and gusts late this morning into this
afternoon diminish by this evening with very light winds expected
overnight.

Prev discussion... Issued 424 am cst Wed nov 14 2018
short term (today through Thursday): clear skies and freezing to
near freezing temperatures begin the short term period with
surface high pressure building in from the west as the mid level
trough heads northeast into the ohio valley. Record low
temperatures are likely to be set in portions of deep south texas
this morning. Afternoon temperatures are expected to rebound into
the upper 50s across the northern ranchlands and lower texas
coast, with low 60s for the rio grande valley under sunny skies.

Biggest question through this period becomes low temperatures
tonight into Thursday morning. Model guidance has leaned warmer with
each new run, however, drier air moves in aloft and surface winds
continue to diminish while remaining northerly. Have opted to stick
below MOS and generally near or above freezing, although, a few
sites bottoming out just below 32 is certainly possible. With any
freezing conditions likely to be short lived, have also left any
freezing headlines out of this forecast package. Regardless of
headlines, exposure to a few degrees cooler or warmer than freezing
for any prolonged period may still be hazardous to people, pets, and
some plants.

Long term (Thursday night through Tuesday): the large closed 500
mb low that was located over the south central plains states
earlier in the week will continuing lifting out to the northeast
late thurs allowing for a milder more zonal 500 mb pattern to
prevail over the region into the weekend. This will allow the
temps to warm up steadily close to or a little above climo for mid
november through sun. The zonal 500 mb flow pattern will limit
serious humidity levels over the rgv for thurs night and fri.

As the surface ridge over the region shifts eastwards later this
week, the moisture levels will start to rebound Sat and Sun which
may allow for a gradual increase in the conv chcs. Another
elongated trough will then dig into the central midwest this
weekend which will in turn push another cold front into south tx
late Sun into early next week. Models begin to differ on the
strength of this cold front towards the end of the weekend. The
ecmwf shows a stronger FROPA late Sun early Mon with a more
significant cool down. Meanwhile the GFS reflects a weaker fropa
or keeps the front stalling near the rgv for the same time period.

One area where both models do agree with the approach of the front
is a steady increase in the deeper moisture advection over the
region and the associated pops due to some coastal surface
troffing anticipated to form near the lower tx coastline. So will
maintain elevated pops for the end of the extended forecast
period. Due to the fairly mild nature of the airmass combined with
the approach of the cold front, will maintain a mention of isold
thunderstorms from Sun night through tues due to the likely
presence of some decent CAPE values.

The ECMWF and GFS models are in pretty good agreement for both
temps and pops through around sun. The models then start
diverging mainly concerning temps with the GFS maintaining a warm
trend with the ECMWF coming in colder. Both models are in better
agreement with the handling of pops through day 7 with both models
ramping up pops steadily from Sun onwards. Will go with a general
blend of the model pops through day 7 and will lean closer to the
warmer solution shown by the GFS from Sun onwards as would like to
see if the ECMWF wants to hold on to this colder solution in
future runs. Overall forecast confidence is above average through
sun and is average to below average after Sun due to the differing
model solutions.

Marine (now through Thursday): small craft advisory conditions
continue across gulf of mexico waters through this afternoon. Small
craft exercise caution conditions are likely at times across the
laguna madre this morning into this afternoon. Winds begin to
diminish late this afternoon into tonight and marine conditions will
follow suit. Light winds and seas will create near perfect marine
conditions for Thursday across all coastal waters as high pressure
gains full control.

Thursday night through Sunday night... As the surface ridging over
the region shifts eastwards later this week, the surface flow
along the lower tx coastline will become light to moderate from
the se. The pgf will then start to strengthen somewhat late sun
with the approach of the next cold front possibly pushing the
marine conditions up close to scec SCA levels Sun night.

Bro watches warnings advisories
Tx... None.

Gm... Small craft advisory until 6 pm cst this evening for gmz150-155-
170-175.

This product is also available on the web at:
http: weather.Gov rgv
99 99


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BZST2 3 mi39 min N 9.9 G 16 51°F 51°F1030.3 hPa
PCGT2 - 8779748 - South Padre Island CGS, TX 3 mi33 min NNW 12 G 16
PTIT2 - 8779770 - Port Isabel, TX 4 mi33 min N 9.9 G 16
RLIT2 12 mi39 min N 12 G 14 51°F 49°F1031.1 hPa
PMNT2 34 mi33 min 54°F 62°F1030.8 hPa

Wind History for South Padre Island C.G Station, TX
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Port Isabel, Port Isabel-Cameron County Airport, TX10 mi28 minNNE 810.00 miFair57°F28°F33%1030.5 hPa
Brownsville, Brownsville / South Padre Island International Airport, TX20 mi28 minNW 11 G 1710.00 miFair61°F27°F27%1030.8 hPa

Wind History from SPL (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE7S7S10S8S8S9S8W5SW11S14SW13SW8SW6N4E3NE7NE6E4E5E6E4E3E4Calm
1 day agoS8S7S4SW5NW3N3N3N6E4NE4E5E13SE16NW8S4S7S5CalmCalmSE6SE6SE5SE6SE5
2 days agoSE7SE7SE8SE3S5S6S6SW5NW3NW4SW8SW11S20SW16
G21
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G18
S15S18S15S14S10SW9SW8S9S7

Tide / Current Tables for Padre Island (South), Texas
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Padre Island (South)
Click for Map
Wed -- 06:46 AM CST     Sunrise
Wed -- 12:34 PM CST     Moonrise
Wed -- 12:49 PM CST     0.63 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 05:39 PM CST     Sunset
Wed -- 10:40 PM CST     1.97 feet High Tide
Wed -- 11:43 PM CST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.91.91.81.71.61.51.41.31.210.90.70.60.60.70.811.21.41.61.81.922

Tide / Current Tables for Matamoros, Tamaulipas, Mexico
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Matamoros
Click for Map
Wed -- 06:47 AM CST     Sunrise
Wed -- 12:35 PM CST     Moonrise
Wed -- 01:22 PM CST     0.40 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 05:41 PM CST     Sunset
Wed -- 11:18 PM CST     1.51 feet High Tide
Wed -- 11:45 PM CST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.61.51.51.41.31.31.21.110.80.70.60.50.40.40.50.60.80.91.11.31.41.51.5

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Brownsville, TX (15,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Brownsville, TX
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Gulf Stream Current


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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.