Sunday, September24, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Alva, FL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:16AMSunset 7:22PM Sunday September 24, 2017 8:23 AM EDT (12:23 UTC) Moonrise 10:11AMMoonset 9:31PM Illumination 15% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 4 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ610 Lake Okeechobee- 419 Am Edt Sun Sep 24 2017
Today..North northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Lake waters a light chop. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the morning...then a chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Tonight..North winds 5 to 10 knots. Lake waters a light chop.
Monday..North northwest winds 5 knots becoming south southeast in the afternoon. Lake waters smooth. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Monday night..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Lake waters a light chop. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening.
Tuesday..West winds 5 knots. Lake waters smooth.
Tuesday night..West northwest winds around 5 knots. Lake waters smooth.
Wednesday and Wednesday night..West winds around 5 knots. Lake waters smooth.
Thursday..West southwest winds around 5 knots. Lake waters smooth. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
AMZ600 Synopsis For Jupiter Inlet To Ocean Reef Fl Out To 60 Nm And For East Cape Sable To Bonita Beach Fl Out To 60 Nm- 419 Am Edt Sun Sep 24 2017
Synopsis..A reinforcing northeasterly swell from the distant hurricane maria will build seas over the south florida atlantic waters through the day. Hazardous seas are expected to continue through at least the middle part of the upcoming week.
Gulf stream hazards..SEas up to 8 feet today off the palm beach county coast in a long period swell of 12 to 14 seconds. The approximate location of the west wall of the gulf stream as of sep 23, 2017 at 1200 utc... 2 nautical miles east northeast of fowey rocks. 5 nautical miles northeast of port everglades. 4 nautical miles southeast of lake worth. 3 nautical miles east northeast of jupiter inlet. This data courtesy of the naval oceanographic office.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Alva, FL
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location: 26.97, -81.64     debug


Area Discussion for - Tampa Bay, FL
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Fxus62 ktbw 241135
afdtbw
area forecast discussion
national weather service tampa bay ruskin fl
735 am edt Sun sep 24 2017

Aviation
MainlyVFR conditions are expected through the forecast period.

Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible today,
with briefly lowered CIGS and or vsbys, but overall convective
coverage is expected to be lower than yesterday.

Prev discussion issued 320 am edt Sun sep 24 2017
short term (today and Monday)...

a highly amplified pattern exists across the CONUS today
with powerful upper level troughing across much of the
western u.S. And broad ridging over the east. A subtle upper
level low continues to meander over the northeastern gulf
of mexico as powerful hurricane maria churns just north of
the bahamas. Weak ridging then extends to the north of maria
into the great lakes and new england. Maria and the
aforementioned upper low will be the primary weather makers
over the florida peninsula for the next couple of days.

For today, expect conditions to be quite similar to
yesterday. With the surface ridge axis poised to the north,
low level east northeast flow will continue across the
region. Given the upper low over the northern gulf of mexico
is slowly pulling away, and weak subsidence on the western
fringes of maria is slowly encroaching on the area, we may
see lesser coverage of showers and storms today than we did
yesterday. The convective evolution, however, will generally
remain the same with storms forming by early afternoon,
moving southwestward through the late afternoon and early
evening hours, eventually moving offshore. Highs will remain
in the lower to possibly mid 90s inland and upper 80s along
the coast.

The upper low over the northern gulf will continue to
migrate westward through tomorrow. At the same time, the
surface flow pattern will become more northerly as maria
continues to lift northward well east of the florida
peninsula. This will allow slightly drier air to advect into
the region. When combined with slight subsidence on the
western fringes of maria, expect only a slight chance of a
few showers or a stray thunderstorm. This will be start of a
noted drying trend that will carry over into the start of
the coming week.

Mid long term (Monday night through Sunday)...

a rather uneventful forecast for the mid and long term
period across west-central and SW florida. As hurricane
maria continues to move north across the western atlantic,
drier air will filter down across the area. Precipitable
water values will drop into the 1.3 - 1.5 inch range across
the CWA on Tuesday and continuing into Thursday. This drier
air will make it very difficult to see any shower storm
development so no rain chances in the forecast by late week,
models begin to indicate moisture return from the south so
sct rain chances will again return to the forecast.

Nevertheless, much of this week looks hot and dry for most.

Temperatures will top out near 90 daily with lows in the low
to mid 70s.

Aviation (06z tafs)...

light northeast winds andVFR conditions to prevail through
around 17z to 18z, when widely scattered showers and storms
are expected to develop. Will maintain vcts all terminals
for this possibility. Activity should move offshore by 00z
with a return toVFR conditions.

Marine...

breezy northeast winds to around 15 knots will persist for
a few hours this morning, especially over the offshore
waters. Winds will decrease during the late morning and
afternoon. The pressure gradient will slacken as we head
into next week with light north to northeast winds shifting
onshore each afternoon with the seabreeze. A few marine
thunderstorms may occur this afternoon into tonight with dry
conditions expected as we head into next week.

Fire weather...

scattered afternoon showers and storms will remain possible
today and tomorrow with drier conditions forecast for much
of the coming week. Despite drier than normal conditions,
and warm temperatures, humidities look to remain well above
critical levels and no fire weather concerns are expected.

Preliminary point temps pops
Tpa 90 75 90 76 40 10 10 0
fmy 90 74 91 75 50 30 20 0
gif 90 73 92 73 30 10 20 10
srq 89 74 88 75 40 20 10 0
bkv 91 71 91 71 30 10 10 10
spg 89 76 89 76 40 10 10 0

Tbw watches warnings advisories
Fl... None.

Gulf waters... None.

Aviation... 05 carlisle


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
FMRF1 - 8725520 - Fort Myers, FL 25 mi53 min NE 4.1 G 6 76°F 87°F1010.9 hPa
VENF1 - Venice, FL 44 mi83 min NE 6 G 8 75°F 84°F1011.4 hPa (+0.6)74°F
NPSF1 - 8725110 - Naples, FL 59 mi53 min NE 2.9 G 6 85°F1011 hPa

Wind History for Naples, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Punta Gorda, Charlotte County Airport, FL19 mi30 minNE 510.00 miThunderstorm in Vicinity76°F73°F94%1012.3 hPa

Wind History from PGD (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE7NE10E9E10NE10E10E11E8NE10NE11NE9NE8E6NE6N5N6NE4NE4NE3N3NE6N4E3NE5
1 day agoNE7NE6NE6NE6N7N4N7N63E5E6NE3NE3E3N5NE6E4NE3NE4N4NE4NE4NE4NE5
2 days agoNE7E8E53N7NE8N7N6E8E8E6E6E7E6E6NE4NE4N3NE4NE4NE4NE3NE4NE5

Tide / Current Tables for Shell Point, Peace River, Charlotte Harbor, Florida
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Shell Point
Click for Map
Sun -- 12:57 AM EDT     1.11 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 06:08 AM EDT     2.23 feet High Tide
Sun -- 07:17 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 11:12 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 01:56 PM EDT     0.45 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 07:21 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 07:50 PM EDT     1.75 feet High Tide
Sun -- 10:32 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.21.11.21.51.82.12.22.221.71.410.70.50.50.60.81.21.51.71.81.71.61.4

Tide / Current Tables for Shell Point, Peace River, Florida
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Shell Point
Click for Map
Sun -- 01:05 AM EDT     1.02 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 06:13 AM EDT     2.11 feet High Tide
Sun -- 07:17 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 11:12 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 01:59 PM EDT     0.42 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 07:21 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 07:52 PM EDT     1.68 feet High Tide
Sun -- 10:32 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.111.11.41.722.12.11.91.61.310.70.50.40.50.81.11.41.61.71.61.51.4

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Tampa Bay, FL (8,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Tampa Bay Area, FL
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.