Wednesday, January23, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Tierra Verde, FL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:18AMSunset 6:05PM Wednesday January 23, 2019 4:59 PM EST (21:59 UTC) Moonrise 9:06PMMoonset 9:26AM Illumination 91% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ853 Coastal Waters From Englewood To Tarpon Springs Fl Out 20 Nm- 300 Pm Est Wed Jan 23 2019
.small craft advisory in effect from 10 pm est this evening through Thursday morning...
Tonight..South winds around 20 knots with gusts to gale force. Seas 4 to 6 feet. Bay and inland waters choppy. Showers and a chance of Thunderstorms.
Thursday..Southwest winds around 20 knots then becoming northwest 10 to 15 knots in the late morning and afternoon. Seas 3 to 5 feet. Bay and inland waters choppy. Showers and a chance of Thunderstorms.
Thursday night..Northwest winds around 15 knots diminishing to 5 to 10 knots late in the evening, then becoming north around 15 knots after midnight. Seas 3 to 5 feet. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop.
Friday..North winds around 15 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop.
Friday night..Northeast winds around 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop.
Saturday..North winds around 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop.
Saturday night..Northeast winds around 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop.
Sunday..Northeast winds around 15 knots. Seas 2 feet. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop.
Sunday night..Northeast winds around 15 knots. Seas 2 feet. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop. A chance of showers.
Monday..Northeast winds around 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop. A chance of showers.
GMZ800 Synopsis For The Coastal Waters From Bonita Beach To Suwannee River- 300 Pm Est Wed Jan 23 2019
Synopsis..A strong cold front will move south through the coastal waters later tonight through early Thursday with a line of showers and scattered Thunderstorms expected along and ahead of it. Increasing south to southwest winds in the 20 to 25 knot range can be expected ahead of the front with gusts to gale force especially in the offshore waters. In the wake of the front high pressure will build in north of the waters during Friday and Saturday. An area of low pressure may bring some rain chance back to the central and southern gulf waters during Sunday and Monday as it affect the area.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Tierra Verde, FL
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location: 27.61, -82.72     debug


Area Discussion for - Tampa Bay, FL
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Fxus62 ktbw 231932
afdtbw
area forecast discussion
national weather service tampa bay ruskin fl
232 pm est Wed jan 23 2019

Strong to severe storms possible tonight into early Thursday...

Minor coastal flooding possible late tonight along levy
and citrus county coasts...

Cooler and drier Thursday night and into the weekend...

Short term (tonight - Thursday)
A shortwave trough and attendant cold front approaching the
region will spread an area of showers and embedded
thunderstorms toward the florida west coast during the
evening with this line of convection then moving onshore and
pushing south through the region overnight and into the
pre-dawn hours on Thursday morning. Increasing wind fields
and strengthening shear profiles within the atmosphere
combined with marginal instability and strong frontal
forcing will support some organized convection with some
strong to severe storms capable of producing damaging winds
and a few tornadoes. In addition to the severe threat some
locally heavy rainfall will be possible with 1 to 2 inch
amounts possible in some locations. The threat for severe
weather should end by mid to late morning on Thursday as the
front moves to the south and the upper level support lifts
out to the northeast with improving weather conditions
expected from north to south during the afternoon. It will
be breezy and mild tonight into early Thursday morning ahead
of the front with lows temps in the 60s area-wide. On
Thursday cool air advection in the wake of the front will
support a much cooler day with the high temperatures likely
occurring during the morning hours, with highs topping out
in the lower to mid 60s north, and upper 60s to lower 70s
central and south.

Long term (Thursday night-Wednesday)
Cooler and drier air will be moving into the area as high
pressure starts to build in behind the front to start the
period. NW winds will become more northerly Friday with dry
air over the area. Winds turn to the NE Saturday as the high
pressure center settles into the northern gulf coast
region. Moisture will be returning as some upper
disturbances and troughing settles across the southern gulf
and south fl fl straits. Models are still a bit inconsistent
as to the evolution of this, but have come into better
agreement, with general consensus of moisture along with
some showers and storms lifting over the area from the south
Saturday night Sunday and overspreading the area Monday as
an area of surface low pressure tries to develop over the se
gulf and track across south fl to the atlantic. Then
gradually clearing out Monday night Tuesday as high pressure
builds back over the state briefly before the next frontal
system moves through the area with weaker more limited
moisture Wednesday. Temperatures will generally be below
normal through the period.

Aviation
Vfr will continue at all terminal sites through 05z tonight
with occasional broken CIGS in the 040-050 range. After 05z
prevailing MVFR CIGS vsbys will develop as an area of
shra tsra approach from the gulf along and ahead of a cold
front, with local ifr conditions possible between 08-14z as
shra tsra impact the area. Southeast winds in the 14 to 16
knot range with gusts up to 28 knots this afternoon will
become south after 04z with speeds further increasing into
the 18 to 23 knots with gusts up to 35 knots possible with
even higher gusts in the vicinity of tsra.

Marine
South to southwest winds will increase to 20 to 25 knots
with frequent gusts to gale force tonight into Thursday
morning ahead a strong cold front with hazardous marine
conditions developing. In addition widespread showers and
isolated thunderstorms will impact the waters overnight into
early Thursday as well. With building seas and increased
wave action along the coast a risk of rip currents at area
beaches will increase tonight and continue through Friday.

In addition the increasing south to southwest wind flow
tonight ahead of the front will support a rise in water
levels along the coast especially along the levy and citrus
county coast where water levels of 2 to 3 feet above normal
tides can be expected and some minor coastal flooding
possible, while 1 to 2 feet above normal can be expected
from the tampa bay area north to hernando county especially
at times of high tide overnight into early Thursday morning.

Winds will shift rapidly to the northwest and north early
on Thursday in the wake of the front and will remain
elevated and gusty during Thursday night and Friday, with
winds becoming northeasterly during the upcoming weekend as
surface high pressure builds in north of the waters. Given
the expected increase in winds and sea states plan to extend
and expand the small craft headlines now in place over the
offshore waters into the near shore waters from englewood
north to the suwannee river including the tampa bay waters
in the next forecast issuance this afternoon with cautionary
headlines across charlotte harbor and the near shore waters
from bonita beach north to englewood.

Fire weather
Elevated 20 foot winds and transport winds will support high
dispersion indices across the forecast area the remainder of
today. A cold front will bring showers and isolated storms
to the region tonight through early Thursday followed by
cooler and drier conditions Thursday night through Saturday.

Even though drier air will be moving into the region in the
wake of the front with a few hours of humidity values below
35 percent during Friday and Saturday afternoons, low erc
values and lighter winds will preclude red flag conditions.

Moisture will increase again during Sunday along with some
additional rain chances through Monday.

Preliminary point temps pops
Tpa 64 67 45 62 90 90 0 0
fmy 67 72 50 66 50 90 0 10
gif 65 70 43 63 70 90 0 0
srq 64 68 48 63 80 90 0 0
bkv 62 67 39 62 90 80 0 0
spg 63 66 48 61 80 90 0 0

Tbw watches warnings advisories
Fl... Beach hazards statement through Thursday evening for
coastal manatee-coastal sarasota.

High rip current risk from 10 pm est this evening through
Friday afternoon for coastal charlotte-coastal
hillsborough-coastal lee-coastal manatee-coastal
sarasota-pinellas.

Gulf waters... Small craft advisory from 7 pm this evening to 10 am est
Thursday for waters from bonita beach to englewood fl
out 20 to 60 nm-waters from englewood to tarpon
springs fl out 20 to 60 nm-waters from tarpon springs
to suwannee river fl out 20 to 60 nm.

Small craft advisory from 10 pm this evening to 10 am est
Thursday for coastal waters from englewood to tarpon
springs fl out 20 nm-coastal waters from tarpon
springs to suwannee river fl out 20 nm-tampa bay
waters.

Short term aviation marine fire weather... 57 mcmichael
long term decision support... 24 hubbard


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MTBF1 8 mi59 min S 18 G 20 74°F 1016.7 hPa (-3.9)59°F
CLBF1 9 mi125 min S 5.1 G 9.9 83°F 1016.8 hPa
PMAF1 9 mi59 min 79°F 63°F1016.9 hPa (-3.6)
42098 11 mi59 min 63°F3 ft
SAPF1 - 8726520 - St. Petersburg, FL 12 mi65 min SSE 7 G 11 72°F 62°F1017.1 hPa
GCTF1 16 mi59 min 74°F 60°F
OPTF1 - 8726607 - Old Port Tampa, FL 19 mi59 min SSE 8 G 13 72°F 63°F1017.1 hPa (-3.7)
CWBF1 - 8726724 - Clearwater Beach, FL 26 mi59 min S 12 G 15 74°F 62°F1017.2 hPa (-3.5)
MCYF1 26 mi59 min 63°F
TPAF1 - 8726694 - TPA Cruise Terminal 2, Tampa, FL 27 mi59 min S 8.9 G 14
TSHF1 - 8726667 - East Bay Causeway, FL 27 mi59 min E 6 G 18
42013 - C10 - Navy-2 32 mi89 min SE 16 G 19 68°F 66°F1017.4 hPa
FHPF1 - Fred Howard Park, FL 38 mi125 min SSE 15 G 19 74°F 1018.1 hPa
VENF1 - Venice, FL 40 mi119 min S 12 G 12 68°F 64°F1018.5 hPa (-3.1)64°F

Wind History for C-Cut, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Albert Whitted Airport, FL12 mi2.1 hrsS 1210.00 miFair74°F60°F62%1017 hPa
Sarasota / Bradenton, Sarasota-Bradenton International Airport, FL17 mi2.1 hrsS 1610.00 miPartly Cloudy81°F61°F51%1017.5 hPa
Macdill Air Force Base, Fl., FL20 mi2.1 hrsSE 1310.00 miFair77°F59°F54%1017.9 hPa
St. Petersburg/Clearwater Airport, FL21 mi2.1 hrsSE 13 G 2210.00 miFair80°F61°F52%1017.4 hPa

Wind History from SPG (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE11E12SE9E12E10E8SE7E5SE5E7E7SE12SE11SE12E12E13SE15SE9SE12SE15SE17
G23
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1 day agoE6NE9E12NE13NE15NE17E21E19E17NE15NE14NE12NE12NE11NE12E14E13E13E10E8E12E12E11E8
2 days agoNW14
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N11NW7N9N9N8N11N8NE9NE13N10N10N10NE9NE12NE12NE10N12NE10E9

Tide / Current Tables for Egmont Key, Egmont Channel, Tampa Bay, Florida
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Egmont Key
Click for Map
Wed -- 12:00 AM EST     2.08 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:21 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:44 AM EST     -0.68 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 09:25 AM EST     Moonset
Wed -- 02:31 PM EST     1.15 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:04 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 07:02 PM EST     0.63 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 09:06 PM EST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.121.71.30.70.2-0.3-0.6-0.7-0.5-0.10.30.711.11.110.90.70.60.70.91.31.6

Tide / Current Tables for Tampa Bay Entrance (Egmont Channel), Florida Current
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Tampa Bay Entrance (Egmont Channel)
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Wed -- 12:08 AM EST     1.41 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 02:54 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 06:39 AM EST     -2.35 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 07:21 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 09:25 AM EST     Moonset
Wed -- 10:37 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 01:50 PM EST     1.81 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 05:30 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 06:04 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 07:27 PM EST     -0.58 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 09:06 PM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 09:35 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.41.30.7-0.1-1-1.8-2.3-2.3-2-1.4-0.60.31.11.71.81.510.3-0.3-0.5-0.5-0.30.20.7

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Tampa Bay, FL (16,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Tampa Bay Area, FL
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Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.