Sunrise 6:59 AM   Sunset 7:57 PM Moonrise 2:35 PM   Moonset 3:20 AM

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GMZ830 Tampa Bay Waters- 805 Pm Edt Wed Apr 17 2024
Tonight - West winds around 10 knots, becoming northwest late this evening, then becoming northeast after midnight, becoming southeast late. Bay and inland waters light chop. Thursday - Southeast winds around 5 knots, becoming southwest in the afternoon. Bay and inland waters light chop. Thursday night - Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming north after midnight. Bay and inland waters light chop. Friday - North winds around 5 knots, becoming west 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop.Friday night - Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots, diminishing to 5 to 10 knots after midnight. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop. Saturday - North winds around 5 knots, becoming west in the afternoon. Bay and inland waters light chop. Saturday night - West winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay and inland waters light chop. Sunday - South winds around 5 knots, becoming southwest in the afternoon. Bay and inland waters light chop. Sunday night - Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay and inland waters light chop. Monday - Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay and inland waters light chop. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

GMZ800 Synopsis For The Coastal Waters From Bonita Beach To Suwannee River- 805 Pm Edt Wed Apr 17 2024
Synopsis - High pressure in the atlantic will remain in place through the end of the week, providing warm and dry conditions across the coastal waters and favorable marine conditions. Winds shift to the west-southwest by the weekend as a cold front ahead of a cold front that is expected to arrive by Monday and bring the next chance of rain across the area, but no headlines are expected at this time.

FXUS62 KTBW 180003 AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 803 PM EDT Wed Apr 17 2024

New UPDATE, AVIATION

UPDATE
Stacked ridging over the region continues to produce subsidence aloft trapping the dry airmass in place over the area. The surface pressure gradient is relaxing as high pressure weakens across the FL Peninsula. Expect more above normal temperatures while humidity remains fairly low then a more pronounced and cooling west coast seabreeze should push further inland Thursday.
Latest grids and forecast in good shape.

AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
VRF conditions continue with mostly clear skies and light/variable winds tonight then bay/seabreeze winds Thursday afternoon.

DISCUSSION
Issued at 223 PM EDT Wed Apr 17 2024

The dry and stable weather pattern continues as mid level ridging in the Gulf of Mexico and surface high pressure in the Atlantic continues to remain in place. By late week, there will be some flattening of the ridge as a large upper level low drifts across northern Ontario and our flow aloft will transition from northwesterly to more of a westerly (zonal) orientation for the upcoming weekend. Meanwhile, this upper level low in Canada and the associated low pressure system will drive a cold front across the Eastern Seaboard by the weekend and as this occurs, the Atlantic high pressure will shift further offshore with the surface ridge axis setting up to the south of the area. With a gradual uptick in deeper moisture and a mostly WSW flow in place for the weekend, there may be a few light showers that develop in our interior areas as the sea breeze collision occurs over the eastern side of the peninsula. This also seems to be supported by recent guidance showing some potential for light pockets of QPF over the weekend associated with some of this sea breeze activity but for now will hold off on adding any PoPs to the official forecast as confidence still remains low.

By late weekend, a southern stream shortwave trough will swing across the lower Mississippi Valley and this will support the development of a surface low around the northern Gulf Coast. This surface low will quickly shift off to the northeast as it moves offshore of the Carolinas and rain chances will increase area-wide as the aforementioned cold front slides southward across the peninsula on Monday. Models then show the frontal boundary sliding south of the area by Monday night with drier air then building into the area as high pressure builds in from the north. While there will also be some slightly cooler air in the wake of the frontal boundary, particularly for the northern half of the area, temperatures are generally expected to remain normal through the end of the extended forecast period as any cold air advection behind the front looks limited at this time.

MARINE
Issued at 223 PM EDT Wed Apr 17 2024

High pressure in the Atlantic will remain in place through the end of the week, providing warm and dry conditions across the coastal waters and favorable marine conditions. Winds shift to the west-southwest by the weekend as a cold front ahead of a cold front that is expected to arrive by Monday and bring the next chance of rain across the area, but no headlines are expected at this time.

FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 223 PM EDT Wed Apr 17 2024

Minimum RH values will continue to drop below critical levels through the remainder of the week in inland areas as a dry air mass remains in place, though wind speeds will be light enough to preclude any red flag concerns. Humidity values will finally start to recover by the weekend as winds become southwesterly ahead of a cold front that is expected to arrive by next Monday, which will bring the next chance of rain across the region.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 67 87 69 87 / 0 0 0 0 FMY 65 87 67 88 / 0 0 0 0 GIF 64 90 66 92 / 0 0 0 0 SRQ 65 87 67 87 / 0 0 0 0 BKV 60 89 61 89 / 0 0 0 0 SPG 69 84 70 84 / 0 0 0 0

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

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Shell Point
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Wed -- 03:46 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 05:44 AM EDT     -0.05 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:02 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 01:48 PM EDT     1.30 feet High Tide
Wed -- 02:40 PM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 04:23 PM EDT     1.24 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:56 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 10:20 PM EDT     1.70 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Shell Point, Tampa Bay, Florida, Tide feet

Port Manatee
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Wed -- 02:32 AM EDT     -0.81 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 03:47 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 06:15 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 07:03 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 09:50 AM EDT     0.83 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 02:40 PM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 02:44 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 03:42 PM EDT     -0.05 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 04:41 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 07:56 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 08:23 PM EDT     0.33 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 11:09 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Port Manatee, Tampa Bay, Florida Current, knots

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