LONG TERM
(Monday through next Friday)
Issued at 146 AM CDT Sat Jul 27 2024

Key Messages:

- Minor to moderate risk of heat related impacts next week.

The atmospheric pattern during the long term period will predominately feature an area of high pressure over the Southern Plains throughout the week promoting dry conditions through much of the work-week. A weak disturbance over the Gulf will move east to west across the region towards the end of the week and will increase rain chances slightly to a low chance around 20%, mainly over the northeastern portions of the CWA The GEF's ensemble mean for PWAT's during the latter part of the week are around 1.70" which is slightly below normal for this time of year.

Temperatures and Heat Index

Temperatures will trend upward next week and will range from 90-100 degrees across the region. Combined with dewpoints in the mid to upper 70s, heat index values are expected to range from 105-109 degrees. Some localized area in the Coastal Plains/northern Brush Country could see Heat Indices of at least 110 degrees Monday and Tuesday. Regardless, this will continue to pose a minor to moderate risk of heat-related impacts for the region for much of next week.

AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 605 AM CDT Sat Jul 27 2024

Showers and the occasional thunderstorm have developed and over the Coastal Plains and Victoria Crossroads. Convective activity is expected to continue, with coverage increasing through morning.
Model guidance hints at some breaks in the precipitation today but expect mainly rainy conditions at most terminals. Heavy rainfall will be possible at times. MVFR to IFR conditions will be possible in and around the heaviest rainfall, with mostly VFR conditions otherwise.

MARINE
Issued at 146 AM CDT Sat Jul 27 2024

A generally weak to moderate onshore flow is expected through the weekend, becoming moderate at times through the week next week.
Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms expected through this weekend with drier conditions through the work week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Corpus Christi 86 77 90 80 / 60 50 50 0 Victoria 84 74 88 77 / 70 50 70 0 Laredo 91 76 93 78 / 40 40 30 0 Alice 88 75 92 77 / 70 40 60 0 Rockport 86 78 88 81 / 70 50 50 0 Cotulla 90 76 93 78 / 40 30 50 0 Kingsville 88 76 91 79 / 70 40 50 0 Navy Corpus 86 80 88 82 / 60 50 40 0

CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...Flood Watch through Sunday evening for TXZ234-243>247-343>347- 443-447.

GM...None.