Sunrise 6:33 AM   Sunset 8:15 PM Moonrise 3:02 PM   Moonset 2:42 AM

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GMZ330 Matagorda Bay- 325 Am Cdt Sat May 18 2024
Today - Northeast winds around 5 knots, veering to east this afternoon. Bay waters smooth. Patchy fog early this morning. Tonight and Sunday - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters smooth.Sunday night - Southeast winds around 10 knots. Bay waters smooth to slightly choppy. Monday and Monday night - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy. Tuesday - South winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy.Tuesday night through Wednesday night - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy.

GMZ300 Synopsis For High Island To The Matagorda Ship Channel Out 60 Nautical Miles Including Galveston And Matagorda Bays 325 Am Cdt Sat May 18 2024
Synopsis for high island to the matagorda ship channel out 60 nm including galveston and matagorda bays
winds will shift back around to the east and south over the weekend. Any lingering showers or storms will taper off early this morning. Gradually strengthening south to southeast winds and rising seas can be expected during the upcoming week. Caution flags might be needed.

FXUS64 KCRP 181120 AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 620 AM CDT Sat May 18 2024

New AVIATION

SHORT TERM
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 313 AM CDT Sat May 18 2024

Key Messages:

- A Elevated risk of heat related impacts from dangerous heat today and Sunday across most of South Texas

A 500 mb ridge is just to the west of the south Texas with the axis running roughly from TOP to AMA to ELP and south into northern Mexico. The ridge is expected to move east into south Texas by the end of the day on Sunday. At the sfc, there is a large, sprawling sfc high that reaches down into the Coastal Bend from just off the east coast of FL. This set up will keep the region precipitation free, and warm. Of course, it's the warmth that is of concern as we head into this week's forecast. For today and Sunday, the high temperatures will be have roughly the same high temperatures with around 90 along the Coastal Bend to around 100 along the Rio Grande Plains. The moisture is the concern with the heat, which will produce heat indices above 100 again today and Sunday, but will remain below 110F both days. The new heat risk map put together by the NWS and CDC shows minor to moderate risks of heat related impacts. There could be some heat related issues, but for most, it will just feel hot.

The only other issue to watch is fog. With the rain from today, our normal fog prone areas (ALI and VCT) will have fog, as the fog has already formed around the Victoria Crossroads and the eastern part of the Brush Country around Alice. The guidance (NBM) would suggest that the lowest VSBYs would be toward 12z/Saturday, but considering the past week, when we have had fog, it would form and then dissipate with no noticeable affects by 12z. So will have to monitor it and decide if a SPS or an Advisory will be necessary. Saturday night/Sunday looks similar as the light winds, clear skies and residual moisture looks like it there would be a 50% chance of VSBYs<5 miles Sunday morning as well.

LONG TERM
(Sunday night through next Friday)
Issued at 313 AM CDT Sat May 18 2024

Key Messages:

- A risk of heat related impacts Monday through Thursday across the Brush Country and southern Coastal Plains

- Heat impacts may worsen Friday over portions of the Brush Country

NWP model runs continue to predict the development of a warmer airmass over the region beginning Monday, manifested by an upper ridge that builds over the region. The upper ridge is predicted to persist and remain quasi-stationary during the remainder of the period. A progressive pattern is expected to remain over nearly all of the CONUS, except for southern Texas, with upper disturbances moving close yet generally remaining north of the CWA These disturbances will contribute to persistent onshore flow and increasing moisture over the region during the period. The GFS/ECMWF predict PWAT values to remain above normal over the CWA during the period. Subsidence associated with the upper ridge will contribute to an inversion which will suppress convection, moisture notwithstanding. Thus, no significant precipitation expected during the period. The combination of heating and greater near surface moisture will increase maximum Heat Index values over the CWA WPC continues to predict a 40-70 percent chance that the maximum Heat Advisory threshold of 110F will be met over the Brush Country and southern Coastal Plains Monday through Thursday. The GFS/ECMWF predict PWAT values to increase even further Friday, potentially resulting in even higher maximum Heat Index values. WPC predicts a 40-70 percent chance that the Excessive Heat Warning threshold of 115F will be met Friday over portions of the Brush Country.

AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 607 AM CDT Sat May 18 2024

High pressure is over South Texas this morning, and the combination of light winds, clear skies, and moisture from rain yesterday is helping to get fog going over the Victoria Crossroads and parts of the Brush Country. The fog is impacting the VSBY at VCT and ALI, and if it wasn't for the high clouds, probably CRP as well. So have MVFR with some tempo IFR VSBYs (CIGs too) for ALI and VCT. Unsure about CRP at this point, since some clouds could move in from the Gulf overnight and keep the fog from forming. COT and LRD may have some low clouds that move into the region (MVFR), so will leave any VSBY changes out for not.

MARINE
Issued at 313 AM CDT Sat May 18 2024

Winds will remain weak at 10 knots or lower today with the winds shifting to the southeast by tonight. Weak onshore flow Sunday strengthens late in the day, making the bays a bit choppy. Warm conditions are expected Monday through Thursday, with weak to moderate onshore flow. Maximum Heat Index values 90-95F Tuesday through Friday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Corpus Christi 92 76 92 76 / 0 0 0 0 Victoria 92 73 93 72 / 0 0 0 0 Laredo 100 75 101 76 / 0 0 0 0 Alice 96 73 96 74 / 0 0 0 0 Rockport 89 77 89 78 / 0 0 0 0 Cotulla 99 74 101 76 / 0 0 0 0 Kingsville 94 76 94 75 / 0 0 0 0 Navy Corpus 89 78 89 80 / 0 0 0 0

CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for TXZ231>234- 245>247-346-347.

GM...None.

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Port Lavaca
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Sat -- 01:02 AM CDT     0.53 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 03:42 AM CDT     Moonset
Sat -- 06:33 AM CDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:04 AM CDT     0.68 feet High Tide
Sat -- 01:17 PM CDT     0.53 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 04:02 PM CDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 06:00 PM CDT     0.61 feet High Tide
Sat -- 08:12 PM CDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Port Lavaca, Matagorda Bay, Texas, Tide feet

Port O'Connor
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Sat -- 03:41 AM CDT     Moonset
Sat -- 04:20 AM CDT     0.53 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:33 AM CDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 10:32 AM CDT     0.43 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 03:56 PM CDT     0.52 feet High Tide
Sat -- 04:01 PM CDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 08:11 PM CDT     Sunset
Sat -- 10:39 PM CDT     0.32 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Port O'Connor, Matagorda Bay, Texas, Tide feet

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