PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
Issued at 445 AM EDT Sat Jul 27 2024

Key Messages:

- Elevated rain and storm chances this afternoon, especially along and west of I-95, instances of localized flooding possible

- Heat index values reaching 102-107 degrees today and Sunday

Today-Tonight...Light southerly flow persists this morning as temperatures remain warm in the mid/upper 70s. A few showers and storms are ongoing well offshore, while most of the peninsula stays dry. GOES-derived PW are increasing north to south, reaching 2"+ from Orlando/Titusville northward, signifying an expected uptick in moisture across the area. Models indicate an active west and east coast sea breeze circulation today, with showers and lightning storms increasing in coverage as these two features move inland and potentially collide late afternoon or early evening. Due to very light steering flow, storm motions will be slow and erratic at times. Model soundings reveal weak mid level lapse rates, 500mb temps around -5C, and modest DCAPE values. As a result, today's storms will again be capable of frequent lightning strikes, gusty winds to 45 mph, and locally heavy rainfall. Slow-moving activity and efficient rain rates may result in a quick 1-2 inches of rainfall in some locations, and a marginal risk for excessive rainfall has been outlined by the Weather Prediction Center, covering much of the forecast area.
Rain and storms are forecast to gradually diminish by midnight.

Temperatures are the other story of today, expected to reach the low to mid 90s by early to mid afternoon. These temps, combined with higher humidity levels, will result in heat index values of 102-107 degrees. This type of heat can affect anyone without effective cooling or hydration, so practice heat safety if planning to be outdoors. Developing scattered showers and storms later today could provide some level of relief from the heat.

In addition, a moderate risk of dangerous rip currents exists at all local beaches. Swim near a lifeguard and never enter the ocean alone.

Sunday-Monday...Similar conditions are forecast to unfold both Sunday and Monday, as weak upper ridging and high atmospheric PW maintain an influence on our weather pattern. The only subtle difference is a slight decrease in afternoon high temperatures, due to broader cloud cover and 50-70 PoP. WPC keeps the entire forecast area under a marginal risk for excessive rainfall both days, and guidance is leaning into some locally higher rainfall totals (1-3"+) across central Florida Sunday afternoon/evening.
The risk for gusty winds with organized storms increases slightly, too, due to the potential of water-loaded downbursts. Activity will eventually drift from north to south, thanks in part to a little more organized NNW mid/upper level flow. Highs in the low 90s and higher humidity will produce heat indices of 100-106, again, prior to or in the absence of scattered showers and lightning storms.

Tuesday-Friday...Ridging sinks south of the area toward midweek, as a quasi-stationary surface boundary dissipates over northeast Florida. Light onshore flow veers more southerly Wednesday-Friday, with the afternoon east coast sea breeze forecast to remain active. Comparatively drier air impinges on the southern half of the forecast area by Thursday and Friday, which is reflected in slightly lower PoPs those days (50-60 PoP). Those PoP values may also have a high bias and will likely need more fine tuning as time approaches. Daytime temperatures respond to the lower coverage of convection by once again pushing into the mid 90s mid to late week, with heat indices approaching 102-107+. By late week into next weekend, a wave of tropical moisture could approach the Caribbean/Bahamas, now outlined by the National Hurricane Center as having a 20 percent chance of tropical development in the next 7 days. It is too early to try and discern what effects this feature would have on our sensible weather.

MARINE
Issued at 445 AM EDT Sat Jul 27 2024

Today-Tonight...Light SSW flow through the morning increases to around 10-13 kt and backs SSE behind the east coast sea breeze this afternoon. Isolated/scattered showers and a few lightning storms are possible, especially later tonight across the Gulf Stream waters. Seas remain 2-3 ft, except where locally higher in the vicinity of lighting storms.

Sunday-Wednesday...Light surface winds become more northerly on Sunday morning, before veering onshore in the afternoon. Onshore flow looks to persist Monday, becoming SE Tuesday and Wednesday.
The east coast breeze each afternoon will locally enhance winds across the nearshore waters, up to 10-15 kt. Daily shower and lightning storm chances are forecast, with a focus for continued activity overnight each night across the offshore/Gulf Stream waters. Seas 2-3 ft Sunday increase up to 4 ft offshore of Volusia and Brevard counties Sunday night through early Monday morning. Otherwise, seas 2-3 ft are expected, except where locally higher in and around lightning storms.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 92 75 90 76 / 60 40 60 20 MCO 95 76 93 76 / 80 40 70 20 MLB 93 76 91 76 / 50 30 60 30 VRB 93 74 92 75 / 40 30 50 30 LEE 93 76 92 76 / 80 40 70 30 SFB 94 77 92 76 / 80 40 70 20 ORL 94 77 93 76 / 80 40 70 20 FPR 93 74 92 75 / 40 20 50 30

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None.
AM...None.