Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Danbury, TX
March 19, 2024 8:13 AM CDT (13:13 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 7:24 AM Sunset 7:33 PM Moonrise 1:44 PM Moonset 3:26 AM |
GMZ355 Expires:202403192130;;995716 Fzus54 Khgx 190816 Cwfhgx
coastal waters forecast for texas national weather service houston/galveston tx 316 am cdt Tue mar 19 2024
upper texas coastal waters from high island to the matagorda ship channel out 60 nautical miles including galveston and matagorda bays.
seas are provided as a range of the average height of the highest 1/3 of the waves - .along with the occasional height of the average highest 10 percent of the waves.
gmz350-355-192130- coastal waters from freeport to matagorda ship channel tx out 20 nm-coastal waters from high island to freeport tx out 20 nm- 316 am cdt Tue mar 19 2024
Today - Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots, becoming east around 10 knots this afternoon. Seas 3 to 5 feet, subsiding to 2 to 3 feet this afternoon.
Tonight - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas around 2 feet.
Wednesday - Southeast winds around 10 knots, increasing to 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 feet.
Wednesday night - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Scattered Thunderstorms after midnight.
Thursday - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet. Showers with a chance of Thunderstorms in the morning, then showers and Thunderstorms likely in the afternoon.
Thursday night - East winds 10 to 15 knots, becoming northeast around 10 knots after midnight. Seas 2 to 4 feet.
Friday - North winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet.
Friday night - Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet.
Saturday - East winds around 10 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet.
Saturday night - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet.
winds and seas higher in and near Thunderstorms.
coastal waters forecast for texas national weather service houston/galveston tx 316 am cdt Tue mar 19 2024
upper texas coastal waters from high island to the matagorda ship channel out 60 nautical miles including galveston and matagorda bays.
seas are provided as a range of the average height of the highest 1/3 of the waves - .along with the occasional height of the average highest 10 percent of the waves.
gmz350-355-192130- coastal waters from freeport to matagorda ship channel tx out 20 nm-coastal waters from high island to freeport tx out 20 nm- 316 am cdt Tue mar 19 2024
winds and seas higher in and near Thunderstorms.
GMZ300 Synopsis For High Island To The Matagorda Ship Channel Out 60 Nautical Miles Including Galveston And Matagorda Bays 316 Am Cdt Tue Mar 19 2024
Synopsis for high island to the matagorda ship channel out 60 nm including galveston and matagorda bays
winds are gradually diminishing, with seas slowly subsiding as well very early this morning. Though conditions will continue to improve through the morning, small craft will still want to exercise caution beyond 20 nm out while winds and seas are still somewhat elevated. Deeper into the afternoon though, winds will diminish more shifting more easterly. Onshore flow will fully return by Wednesday. Rainfall chances increase late Wednesday into Thursday as a storm system develops off the lower to middle texas gulf coast.
winds are gradually diminishing, with seas slowly subsiding as well very early this morning. Though conditions will continue to improve through the morning, small craft will still want to exercise caution beyond 20 nm out while winds and seas are still somewhat elevated. Deeper into the afternoon though, winds will diminish more shifting more easterly. Onshore flow will fully return by Wednesday. Rainfall chances increase late Wednesday into Thursday as a storm system develops off the lower to middle texas gulf coast.
Area Discussion for - Houston/Galveston, TX
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FXUS64 KHGX 191140 AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 640 AM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024
New AVIATION
SYNOPSIS
Issued at 412 AM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024
A fairly typical springtime week ahead for Southeast Texas.
Seasonable temperatures and mixed stretches of fair weather and showers/storms. Here's a quick summary of the days to come: - Expect temperatures pretty near seasonal averages for the next several days. Today will be a bit on the cooler side of that average, and we'll gradually warm up to being just a bit warmer by the weekend.
- The first window for showers and storms runs from Wednesday night through Thursday night. A marginal risk of severe thunderstorms (threat level 1 of 5) is in place around Matagorda Bay Wednesday, which expands to include all of Southeast Texas on Thursday. There is also a marginal risk of excessive rainfall (threat level 1 of 4) from the Houston metro coastward on Thursday.
- Window number two for showers and storms comes early next week, generally centered around Monday. There is high confidence in this broad idea of early week rain and storms, but the fine details currently have too much uncertainty to say anything more specific with much confidence.
SHORT TERM
(Today through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 412 AM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024
Dry cool weather will prevail today and tonight, even as the surface high over the region begins moving east. Light NE winds this morning will be slowly transitioning to the E and then SE this afternoon and evening. And so, with mostly to partly sunny skies, temperature this afternoon should top out in the mid and upper 60s. Lows should range from the upper 40s across the northern CWA ..to the lower to mid 50s elsewhere tonight.
The main forecast problem(s) are going to be with the pattern aloft, with the pesky closed low that has been lingering in/around the Four Corners region the last few days. This resultant W/SW flow aloft has kept a steady stream of mid/high clouds in place over SE TX (as well as some weak embedded disturbances at times). This system is progged to finally begin moving east on Weds while weakening a bit. And when combined with the return low-level moisture, rain chances should re- turn to the area as well. We'll likely start seeing some isolated to widely scattered activity move up from the W/SW by tomorrow evening, then becoming more widespread by tomorrow night. The latest from SPC has our southwestern FA in a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for severe weather initially for tomorrow night (Day 2)...then for all of SE TX for Thurs (Day 3). More details below.
LONG TERM
(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 412 AM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024
Let's start off the long with some fun, huh? Thursday opens up with the end of zonal flow aloft, and we are pretty likely to see some showers, perhaps with some embedded thunderstorms, as early as the morning as a shortwave trough zips overhead, helping to spur the development of a weak coastal low.
The main fun is likely to hold off until later into the day and Thursday night, however, as a more potent upper trough makes its way in from the west, resulting in height falls aloft and deepening of a surface low. Both the NAEFS and Euro ensemble means are pretty moist, progging Thursday's precipitable water values around the 90th percentile (roughly correlating to over 1.25 inches inland, exceeding 1.5 inches at the coast). The EPS is a bit drier, hanging out just under the 90th percentile, while the NAEFS mean is a little bit higher. Either way, ample moisture is in place. Height falls and daytime heating will help build some instability, though it appears we may have a fairly sharp gradient through the area. The NBM distribution shows that probabilities of SBCAPE in excess of 500 J/Kg Thursday afternoon change pretty rapidly to the west of Houston - practically nil right along I-45, but increasing above 50 percent before you're even west of the west Beltway. While there are some questions for the east, it's pretty high confidence for some Thursday thunderstorms, and potentially some strong to severe storms as well.
Just how much potential do you ask? Well, at the moment, there's a *lot* of uncertainty for what the top end for thunderstorm potential is on Thursday thanks to numerous open questions. Will morning clouds and rain sap instability to keep storm development down in the afternoon? Will any storms that do initiate die off as they cross the instability gradient? Or do they become organized enough to hold insulate themselves from the poorer environment, carrying all the way through our area? Given how high PoPs are, I've got to think the messiness of the day from the jump will cap high end potential somewhat. SPC's Day 3 marginal risk seems appropriate, and if we do end up getting a cleaner environment overall, there may be a need for a little more alertness, particularly west of the Houston metro.
Fair weather prevails Friday with northwest flow in place from the ground through the middle layers in the wake of the exiting trough. Though there will technically be some amount of cold advection occurring here, I would expect temperatures to reach or even exceed Thursday's highs as clouds scatter out for the afternoon. Weak ridging keeps the fair weather in place through the weekend, and we can generally expect highs in the 70s each day. Friday and even Saturday night should be cooler (and by cooler, I only mean near seasonal averages) but onshore flow returns late Saturday into Sunday, and as usual, our overnight temperature floor goes up with the humidity into next week.
Our next round of more unsettled weather looks to be Monday into Tuesday. It's a pretty classic case of big upper trough digs into the Plains, inducing lee cyclogenesis that swings through the Panhandles and ejects northeastward towards the Great Lakes.
For whatever its worth, ensemble data suggests that moisture will be high, but seasonably so (below the 90th percentile), and the probability of getting back over an admittedly arbitrary 500 J/KG SBCAPE threshold is already around/over 50 percent, so showers and thunderstorms of some sort seem like a safe bet. Beyond that, however, there's just not enough signal in the guidance to say anything more specific that that with a lot of confidence right now.
AVIATION
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 621 AM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024
VFR conditions for the most part, with only mid and high clouds and a gradual wind shift as the main issues with this TAF package. With surface high pressure drifting east through the day, light NE winds this morning (2-6kts) will be transitioning to the E and then SE as the afternoon wears on. Winds will be mostly SE/S tonight (4-8kts).
41
MARINE
Issued at 412 AM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024
Winds are gradually diminishing, with seas slowly subsiding as well very early this morning. Much of the area has already fallen below the threshold for caution flags, but a smattering of caution-level winds and even occasional gust around 20 knots are being seen. Along with this, seas have only come down to 6 feet at Freeport Buoy so far. Though conditions will continue to improve through the morning, small craft will still want to exercise caution beyond 20 NM out while winds and seas are still somewhat elevated. Deeper into the afternoon though, winds will diminish more shifting more easterly. Onshore flow will fully return by Wednesday. This will lead us to the late week development of a coastal low, which will boost winds and seas, as well as bring us our next round of showers and storms.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
College Station (CLL) 66 51 67 58 / 0 0 10 40 Houston (IAH) 68 54 70 60 / 0 0 0 50 Galveston (GLS) 62 57 68 63 / 0 0 0 40
HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution until 11 AM CDT this morning for GMZ370-375.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 640 AM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024
New AVIATION
SYNOPSIS
Issued at 412 AM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024
A fairly typical springtime week ahead for Southeast Texas.
Seasonable temperatures and mixed stretches of fair weather and showers/storms. Here's a quick summary of the days to come: - Expect temperatures pretty near seasonal averages for the next several days. Today will be a bit on the cooler side of that average, and we'll gradually warm up to being just a bit warmer by the weekend.
- The first window for showers and storms runs from Wednesday night through Thursday night. A marginal risk of severe thunderstorms (threat level 1 of 5) is in place around Matagorda Bay Wednesday, which expands to include all of Southeast Texas on Thursday. There is also a marginal risk of excessive rainfall (threat level 1 of 4) from the Houston metro coastward on Thursday.
- Window number two for showers and storms comes early next week, generally centered around Monday. There is high confidence in this broad idea of early week rain and storms, but the fine details currently have too much uncertainty to say anything more specific with much confidence.
SHORT TERM
(Today through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 412 AM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024
Dry cool weather will prevail today and tonight, even as the surface high over the region begins moving east. Light NE winds this morning will be slowly transitioning to the E and then SE this afternoon and evening. And so, with mostly to partly sunny skies, temperature this afternoon should top out in the mid and upper 60s. Lows should range from the upper 40s across the northern CWA ..to the lower to mid 50s elsewhere tonight.
The main forecast problem(s) are going to be with the pattern aloft, with the pesky closed low that has been lingering in/around the Four Corners region the last few days. This resultant W/SW flow aloft has kept a steady stream of mid/high clouds in place over SE TX (as well as some weak embedded disturbances at times). This system is progged to finally begin moving east on Weds while weakening a bit. And when combined with the return low-level moisture, rain chances should re- turn to the area as well. We'll likely start seeing some isolated to widely scattered activity move up from the W/SW by tomorrow evening, then becoming more widespread by tomorrow night. The latest from SPC has our southwestern FA in a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for severe weather initially for tomorrow night (Day 2)...then for all of SE TX for Thurs (Day 3). More details below.
LONG TERM
(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 412 AM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024
Let's start off the long with some fun, huh? Thursday opens up with the end of zonal flow aloft, and we are pretty likely to see some showers, perhaps with some embedded thunderstorms, as early as the morning as a shortwave trough zips overhead, helping to spur the development of a weak coastal low.
The main fun is likely to hold off until later into the day and Thursday night, however, as a more potent upper trough makes its way in from the west, resulting in height falls aloft and deepening of a surface low. Both the NAEFS and Euro ensemble means are pretty moist, progging Thursday's precipitable water values around the 90th percentile (roughly correlating to over 1.25 inches inland, exceeding 1.5 inches at the coast). The EPS is a bit drier, hanging out just under the 90th percentile, while the NAEFS mean is a little bit higher. Either way, ample moisture is in place. Height falls and daytime heating will help build some instability, though it appears we may have a fairly sharp gradient through the area. The NBM distribution shows that probabilities of SBCAPE in excess of 500 J/Kg Thursday afternoon change pretty rapidly to the west of Houston - practically nil right along I-45, but increasing above 50 percent before you're even west of the west Beltway. While there are some questions for the east, it's pretty high confidence for some Thursday thunderstorms, and potentially some strong to severe storms as well.
Just how much potential do you ask? Well, at the moment, there's a *lot* of uncertainty for what the top end for thunderstorm potential is on Thursday thanks to numerous open questions. Will morning clouds and rain sap instability to keep storm development down in the afternoon? Will any storms that do initiate die off as they cross the instability gradient? Or do they become organized enough to hold insulate themselves from the poorer environment, carrying all the way through our area? Given how high PoPs are, I've got to think the messiness of the day from the jump will cap high end potential somewhat. SPC's Day 3 marginal risk seems appropriate, and if we do end up getting a cleaner environment overall, there may be a need for a little more alertness, particularly west of the Houston metro.
Fair weather prevails Friday with northwest flow in place from the ground through the middle layers in the wake of the exiting trough. Though there will technically be some amount of cold advection occurring here, I would expect temperatures to reach or even exceed Thursday's highs as clouds scatter out for the afternoon. Weak ridging keeps the fair weather in place through the weekend, and we can generally expect highs in the 70s each day. Friday and even Saturday night should be cooler (and by cooler, I only mean near seasonal averages) but onshore flow returns late Saturday into Sunday, and as usual, our overnight temperature floor goes up with the humidity into next week.
Our next round of more unsettled weather looks to be Monday into Tuesday. It's a pretty classic case of big upper trough digs into the Plains, inducing lee cyclogenesis that swings through the Panhandles and ejects northeastward towards the Great Lakes.
For whatever its worth, ensemble data suggests that moisture will be high, but seasonably so (below the 90th percentile), and the probability of getting back over an admittedly arbitrary 500 J/KG SBCAPE threshold is already around/over 50 percent, so showers and thunderstorms of some sort seem like a safe bet. Beyond that, however, there's just not enough signal in the guidance to say anything more specific that that with a lot of confidence right now.
AVIATION
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 621 AM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024
VFR conditions for the most part, with only mid and high clouds and a gradual wind shift as the main issues with this TAF package. With surface high pressure drifting east through the day, light NE winds this morning (2-6kts) will be transitioning to the E and then SE as the afternoon wears on. Winds will be mostly SE/S tonight (4-8kts).
41
MARINE
Issued at 412 AM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024
Winds are gradually diminishing, with seas slowly subsiding as well very early this morning. Much of the area has already fallen below the threshold for caution flags, but a smattering of caution-level winds and even occasional gust around 20 knots are being seen. Along with this, seas have only come down to 6 feet at Freeport Buoy so far. Though conditions will continue to improve through the morning, small craft will still want to exercise caution beyond 20 NM out while winds and seas are still somewhat elevated. Deeper into the afternoon though, winds will diminish more shifting more easterly. Onshore flow will fully return by Wednesday. This will lead us to the late week development of a coastal low, which will boost winds and seas, as well as bring us our next round of showers and storms.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
College Station (CLL) 66 51 67 58 / 0 0 10 40 Houston (IAH) 68 54 70 60 / 0 0 0 50 Galveston (GLS) 62 57 68 63 / 0 0 0 40
HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution until 11 AM CDT this morning for GMZ370-375.
Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air Temp | Water Temp | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
LUIT2 | 7 mi | 56 min | NNE 13G | 55°F | 62°F | 30.25 | ||
FPST2 | 16 mi | 56 min | 50°F | 66°F | 30.22 | |||
GRRT2 | 19 mi | 56 min | NNE 13G | 54°F | 62°F | 30.23 | ||
GTOT2 | 24 mi | 56 min | NNE 6G | 53°F | 68°F | 30.26 | ||
EPTT2 - 8771013 - Eagle Point, TX | 27 mi | 56 min | NE 8.9G | 58°F | 63°F | 30.26 | ||
GNJT2 - 8771341 - Galveston Bay (North Jetty), TX | 29 mi | 56 min | NE 11G | 52°F | 64°F | 30.23 | ||
KGVW | 35 mi | 39 min | NE 14 | 59°F | 36°F | |||
MGPT2 - 8770613 - Morgans Point, TX | 38 mi | 56 min | N 7G | 47°F | 67°F | 30.27 | ||
NCHT2 - 8770777 - Manchester, TX | 39 mi | 56 min | NNE 5.1G | 48°F | 30.25 | |||
RLOT2 - 8770971 - Rollover Pass, TX | 44 mi | 56 min | NNE 9.9G | 47°F | 56°F | 30.26 | ||
EMAT2 | 49 mi | 56 min | N 8.9G | 49°F | 63°F | 30.22 |
toggle option: (graph/table)
Airport Reports
EDIT (hide/show)  Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
KLBX TEXAS GULF COAST RGNL,TX | 14 sm | 20 min | NNE 05 | 10 sm | Clear | 46°F | 39°F | 76% | 30.26 | |
KGLS SCHOLES INTL AT GALVESTON,TX | 20 sm | 21 min | NNE 10 | 10 sm | Clear | 52°F | 39°F | 62% | 30.27 |
Tide / Current for Alligator Point, West Bay, Texas
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Alligator Point
Click for Map
Tue -- 04:25 AM CDT Moonset
Tue -- 07:24 AM CDT Sunrise
Tue -- 10:12 AM CDT -0.16 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 02:42 PM CDT Moonrise
Tue -- 07:20 PM CDT 0.82 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:31 PM CDT Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Tue -- 04:25 AM CDT Moonset
Tue -- 07:24 AM CDT Sunrise
Tue -- 10:12 AM CDT -0.16 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 02:42 PM CDT Moonrise
Tue -- 07:20 PM CDT 0.82 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:31 PM CDT Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Alligator Point, West Bay, Texas, Tide feet
12 am |
0.7 |
1 am |
0.7 |
2 am |
0.7 |
3 am |
0.6 |
4 am |
0.5 |
5 am |
0.4 |
6 am |
0.2 |
7 am |
0.1 |
8 am |
-0 |
9 am |
-0.1 |
10 am |
-0.2 |
11 am |
-0.1 |
12 pm |
-0.1 |
1 pm |
0.1 |
2 pm |
0.3 |
3 pm |
0.4 |
4 pm |
0.6 |
5 pm |
0.7 |
6 pm |
0.8 |
7 pm |
0.8 |
8 pm |
0.8 |
9 pm |
0.8 |
10 pm |
0.8 |
11 pm |
0.7 |
Christmas Point
Click for Map
Tue -- 04:25 AM CDT Moonset
Tue -- 07:25 AM CDT Sunrise
Tue -- 10:09 AM CDT -0.16 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 02:43 PM CDT Moonrise
Tue -- 07:13 PM CDT 0.82 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:31 PM CDT Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Tue -- 04:25 AM CDT Moonset
Tue -- 07:25 AM CDT Sunrise
Tue -- 10:09 AM CDT -0.16 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 02:43 PM CDT Moonrise
Tue -- 07:13 PM CDT 0.82 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:31 PM CDT Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Christmas Point, Christmas Bay, Texas, Tide feet
12 am |
0.7 |
1 am |
0.7 |
2 am |
0.7 |
3 am |
0.6 |
4 am |
0.5 |
5 am |
0.4 |
6 am |
0.2 |
7 am |
0.1 |
8 am |
-0 |
9 am |
-0.1 |
10 am |
-0.2 |
11 am |
-0.1 |
12 pm |
-0.1 |
1 pm |
0.1 |
2 pm |
0.3 |
3 pm |
0.5 |
4 pm |
0.6 |
5 pm |
0.7 |
6 pm |
0.8 |
7 pm |
0.8 |
8 pm |
0.8 |
9 pm |
0.8 |
10 pm |
0.8 |
11 pm |
0.7 |
Houston/Galveston, TX,
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