Sunrise 6:05 AM   Sunset 7:48 PM Moonrise 11:57 AM   Moonset 12:55 AM

  Print   HELP   Reset   Save   Recall  New

GMZ530 Lake Pontchartrain And Lake Maurepas- 353 Pm Cdt Wed May 15 2024
Tonight - North winds around 5 knots, becoming east around 5 knots after midnight. Waves 1 foot or less. Thursday - East winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less, then around 2 feet in the afternoon. Thursday night - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 2 to 4 feet. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Friday - South winds 15 to 20 knots, diminishing to 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Waves 3 to 4 feet. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the morning, then showers and Thunderstorms likely in the afternoon. Friday night - South winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 2 to 4 feet. A chance of Thunderstorms. A chance of showers. Saturday - Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots, diminishing to 5 to 10 knots in the afternoon. Waves around 2 feet. A chance of Thunderstorms. A chance of showers. Saturday night - North winds around 5 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Sunday - North winds around 5 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Sunday night - Southwest winds around 5 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Monday - Northeast winds around 5 knots, becoming southeast around 5 knots in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less, then around 2 feet in the afternoon. Monday night - South winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves around 2 feet.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

GMZ500 353 Pm Cdt Wed May 15 2024
Synopsis for pascagoula to atchafalaya river out 60 nm -
weak northerly winds tonight will become southerly once again by Thursday night and gradually increase into Friday ahead of the next low pressure system. Thunderstorm activity becomes increasingly likely to cause issues Thursday night through Saturday morning mainly for the inland and nearshore waters and headlines for hazardous seas could be raised during this period.

FXUS64 KLIX 152327 AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 627 PM CDT Wed May 15 2024

New AVIATION

SHORT TERM
(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 354 PM CDT Wed May 15 2024

KEY MESSAGES: 1. At least 2-3 waves of showers and storms will be possible from Thursday night through Saturday morning across portions of Southeast LA and southern MS. 2 to 4 inches of rain with locally higher amounts up to 6 inches will be possible mainly north of the I-10/12 corridor. This has prompted the issuance of a Flood Watch for this period for the threat of localized flash flooding.

2. Thursday night into Friday morning and again Friday night appear to provide the highest risk for severe weather impacts to our area, but exact details regarding the magnitude of the threat at this stage is uncertain. Damaging winds, hail, and a few tornadoes cannot be ruled.

Fair skies and highs in the 80s today with surface high pressure and amplifying shortwave ridge overhead. Light winds and clear skies tonight will allow for another steep low-level inversion from radiational cooling that will allow moisture trapping and some shallow, patchy fog in lower-lying areas at daybreak, but no dense fog concerns are anticipated. As high pressure moves off to the east and surface pressures begin to fall over the plains, winds will become southeasterly again and gradually increase. This return flow and increasing cloud cover during the day on Thursday will be indicative of what's coming from upstream.

A deepening, elongated trough ejecting out of the southern Rockies will feature smaller shortwaves in the leading and trailing flanks of the larger feature which will result in several rounds of more favorable forcing for deep convection across the southern Plains and northern Gulf Coast Thursday through Saturday. The first wave of deep convection to effect our area appears to be on Thursday evening through Friday morning associated with a leading shortwave within the westerly, subtropical jet flow. The threat for severe weather and excessive rainfall with this feature appears to be focused mainly along and north of the I-10/12 corridor. Further refinement will be needed to timing and estimation of magnitude of impacts with this first wave as newer guidance gets within range tonight and tomorrow, but the gist highlights an environment supportive of a strongly forced area of organized convection especially capable of producing damaging winds and a few tornadoes.

Depending on the progression of this first wave and how it modulates the thermodynamic environment in its wake, the PoP forecast for the day on Friday could vary drastically. If the cold pool from this deep convection surges out and stabilizes the forecast area, new convection will struggle to develop into the afternoon. If the area is able to recover faster, or the first wave of storms is not as robust, more coverage of showers and storms developing over the area in the afternoon will be possible.

As the main axis of the trough lift into the ArkLaTex region, the trailing shortwave will assist in kicking off another round of deep convection that will initiate in coastal/southeast Texas and propagate east, similar to Monday's system. Exact details regarding the impacts with this round of storms is more uncertain given the situation outlined above. However, it is safe to message that additional rainfall on top of an already saturated area from the first round of rain and recent rains will make areas along and north of the I-10/12 corridor more susceptible to flash flooding.

A linger concern beyond just these rounds of strong to severe storms will be the prospect of west to east boundary orientation in relation to the WSW mid-upper flow continuing to promote redevelopment of showers and storms into the overnight hours Friday into Saturday morning which could exacerbate flooding concerns especially in poor drainage and urban areas.

LONG TERM
(Saturday through Tuesday night)
Issued at 354 PM CDT Wed May 15 2024

Lingering showers and storms should gradually abate as the trough lifts out of the area and rising heights suppress convection. The long term period starting Sunday is a rinse/repeat summer-like regime where mid-upper ridging building in from the southwest and dominates much of the Gulf of Mexico leaving us with above normal temperatures and drier conditions through midweek next week.
Temperatures will be pushing the low to mid 90s at most locations.

AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 621 PM CDT Wed May 15 2024

Currently VFR conditions across all terminals, and should remain that way for the most part through the forecast period. The exception might be KMCB, which could see a brief period of fog around sunrise. Beyond 00z Friday, however, conditions are likely to begin deteriorating as ceilings lower ahead of convection.
Flight restrictions may hold off until beyond 06z Friday, if only barely.

MARINE
Issued at 354 PM CDT Wed May 15 2024

Weak northerly winds tonight will become southerly once again by Thursday night and gradually increase into Friday ahead of the next low pressure system. Winds of 15-20 knots with some gusts up to 25 knots will be prevailing on Friday, but forecast is not accounting for impacts from convection. Thunderstorm activity becomes increasingly likely to cause issues Thursday night through Saturday morning mainly for the inland and nearshore waters and headlines for hazardous seas could be raised during this period.
Winds become offshore with boundary passage Saturday night into Sunday. Thereafter, high pressure gradually builds back in by Sunday night and drier, calmer conditions prevail into next week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MCB 61 87 65 82 / 0 10 70 80 BTR 66 92 71 88 / 0 20 60 70 ASD 66 89 72 88 / 0 10 40 60 MSY 70 89 75 89 / 0 10 40 50 GPT 67 87 73 86 / 0 0 40 60 PQL 64 89 70 87 / 0 0 40 60

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...Flood Watch from Thursday evening through Saturday morning for LAZ034>037-039-046>048-071-081-083.

GM...None.
MS...Flood Watch from Thursday evening through Saturday morning for MSZ068>071.

GM...None.

toggle option: (graph/table)

Paris Road Bridge
Click for Map
Wed -- 01:53 AM CDT     Moonset
Wed -- 06:05 AM CDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 06:49 AM CDT     First Quarter
Wed -- 08:46 AM CDT     0.00 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 12:53 PM CDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 07:46 PM CDT     Sunset
Wed -- 09:06 PM CDT     0.97 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Paris Road Bridge, Mississippi River Delta, Louisiana, Tide feet

Manilla
Click for Map
Wed -- 01:52 AM CDT     Moonset
Wed -- 06:01 AM CDT     0.00 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:07 AM CDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 06:49 AM CDT     First Quarter
Wed -- 12:54 PM CDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 05:45 PM CDT     0.88 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:45 PM CDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Manilla, Mississippi River Delta, Louisiana, Tide feet

Full Color Weather Map

Link to Loop


Other links: GEOS-West     Contential US     Full GOES-East

New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA,