SHORT TERM
(Sunday through Monday night)
Issued at 324 AM EDT Sat Jul 27 2024

Weak ridging aloft will prevail through the short term with the main talking point being a backdoor cold front moving close to the area. This with PWATs greater than 2" will serve to enhance rain chances across the area with widespread PoPs at 70%.
The overall severe threat appears low given meager DCAPE, though a localized nuisance flooding threat appears possible given slow storm motions with an already very saturated ground. This pattern will repeat through Monday afternoon. Highs will be in the upper 80s to low 90s with lows in the mid 70s.

LONG TERM
(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 324 AM EDT Sat Jul 27 2024

Ridging will continue to build in gradually suppressing rain chances across the area. This will be seen most notably across our SE AL and SW GA counties as large scale subsidence takes over to our north. Seabreeze convection will still remain likely across our FL counties each afternoon. PWATs will still remain greater than 2", continuing the aforementioned nuisance flooding threat in the short term portion of the forecast.

Near the end of the long term (Thursday and Friday), guidance is starting to hint at the return of higher heat indices as lower chances for rain enable us to warm up more across the area. As such, heat advisory criteria appears to be met with our heat indices in the forecast (greater than 108). However, this is still quite some time away with changes to the forecast likely. Regardless, the pattern shift will support a warmer pattern within the forecast area.

AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 614 AM EDT Sat Jul 27 2024

VFR conditions are expected to prevail this morning. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon with VCTS and TEMPO groups indicated during the most likely period. Winds will be mainly light outside of convection and gusty and erratic near convection. For early Sunday morning, low ceilings may impact DHN and ABY with IFR conditions around dawn.

MARINE
Issued at 324 AM EDT Sat Jul 27 2024

Each evening and morning will feature rain showers and thunderstorms over our waters, diminishing as the day continues.
These storms may feature gusty and erratic winds with waterspouts possible. Light winds out of the south southwest are expected through the weekend before becoming variable next week. Seas remain calm around 1 to 2 feet through the entirety of the forecast.

FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 324 AM EDT Sat Jul 27 2024

There are minimal fire weather concerns for the next few days with scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms expected. Gusty and erratic winds with frequent lightning are expected within or near any convection. Dispersions are expected to be on the low side each afternoon.

HYDROLOGY
Issued at 324 AM EDT Sat Jul 27 2024

A moist and unstable airmass will remain in place for the foreseeable future yielding chances for scattered showers and thunderstorms each day across the area. Given the recent rains, the ground has become increasingly moist which will lead to more vulnerability to flash flooding across the area, particularly in urban areas and/or areas with poor drainage. Currently, the WPC has our entire forecast area outlined in a Marginal Risk (1/4) for excessive rainfall through at least Monday.

Currently, Bruce Creek near Redbay is in action stage with all other rivers remaining below. Other small creeks and basins may see a rise if heavier rainfall and/or slow moving storms occur over them through the remainder of the forecast period.

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Tallahassee 93 75 89 74 / 70 50 70 40 Panama City 90 77 90 77 / 70 40 70 60 Dothan 92 74 90 74 / 80 60 70 40 Albany 92 75 89 74 / 70 30 70 30 Valdosta 94 75 91 74 / 80 60 70 30 Cross City 92 74 91 74 / 70 60 70 40 Apalachicola 89 78 89 78 / 70 40 70 60

TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.