Wednesday, September26, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Asbury Lake, FL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
9/17/2018 XTide broke when 1and1 "upgraded" my server. It has been esculated. I am sorry for the problem.

Sunrise 7:16AMSunset 7:19PM Wednesday September 26, 2018 6:27 AM EDT (10:27 UTC) Moonrise 7:37PMMoonset 7:34AM Illumination 97% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ452 Coastal Waters From Altamaha Sound To Fernandina Beach Fl Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Fernandina Beach To St. Augustine Fl Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From St. Augustine To Flagler Beach Fl Out 20 Nm- 327 Am Edt Wed Sep 26 2018
Today..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Dominant period 8 seconds. Inland waters a light chop. A chance of Thunderstorms and a slight chance of showers in the afternoon.
Tonight..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Dominant period 8 seconds. Inland waters a light chop. A chance of Thunderstorms and a slight chance of showers in the evening.
Thursday..South southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Dominant period 8 seconds. Inland waters a light chop. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Thursday night..South southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Dominant period 9 seconds. Inland waters a light chop. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening, then a slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms after midnight.
Friday..South southwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southeast in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Inland waters a light chop. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Friday night..South southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Inland waters a light chop. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Saturday and Saturday night..East southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas up to 6 feet. Inland waters mostly smooth. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Sunday..East northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas up to 6 feet. Inland waters a light chop. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
AMZ400 Synopsis For Altamaha Sound Ga To Flagler Beach Fl Out To 60 Nm- 327 Am Edt Wed Sep 26 2018
Synopsis.. High pressure persists through the week as a weak cold front attempts to push into the local area by the weekend before dissipating. A ribbon of deep moisture associated with the front pushes southward over the waters on Sunday and into early next week as high pressure shifts northward.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Asbury Lake, FL
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location: 30.08, -81.76     debug


Area Discussion for - Jacksonville, FL
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Fxus62 kjax 260656
afdjax
area forecast discussion
national weather service jacksonville fl
256 am edt Wed sep 26 2018

Summer-like warmth continues...

Near term Through tonight...

mostly clear morning for many across the area as flow has shifted
to a more southerly direction. No coastal showers this morning,
with few spots seeing patchy shallow fog. Skies start mostly sunny
with cumulus developing by late morning early afternoon.

For this afternoon, the ridge to the east has moved further south
so generally light southerly flow over the area allowing both
coastal sea-breezes to move inland. Modest mid-level lapse rates
along with a 500 mb temperature of around -7c produce the typical
narrow summer-like CAPE profile. With CAPE values between
1500-2500 j kg, will see scattered thunderstorms primarily during
the late afternoon hours as maximum instability is established.

Sea-breeze boundaries will also help to initiate storms given the
lack of any synoptic lifting mechanisms. High resolution models
indicate showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms lingering after
sunset as sea- breeze boundaries work inland and collide with
various outflow boundaries. Forecast soundings suggest an area of
deep moisture (pwat 1.9-2.1 inches), and with the slow storm
motion, isolated pockets of locally heavy rain are possible. As
stated previously, some lingering showers and isolated
thunderstorms may persist into the late evening hours before
gradually fading through the overnight. Could see some patchy fog
in areas seeing rain, but still not the time of year to expect
dense enough fog to slow down the morning commute for Thursday.

Temperatures warm up nicely into the low to mid 90s area wide due
to the southerly flow and delayed onset to convection.

Gainesville's daily record high of 94 will be challenged if
convection avoids the local area.

Short term (Thursday-Friday night)
A deep layer ridge will be located to the south producing a light
south to southwest flow across the area. Meanwhile a slow moving
cold front will move into central georgia where it will stall by
Friday. Dry air aloft will limit the convection coverage somewhat
with isolated to scattered showers and storms expected each day as
the seabreezes move inland. Above normal temperatures are
expected with highs reaching the lower 90s inland. Coastal areas
will remain a shade under 90 degrees due to an afternoon
seabreeze.

Long term (Saturday-Tuesday)
A backdoor front will drop south across the area by early next
week bringing in a swath of atlantic moisture and an increase of
onshore winds as a deep layer ridge builds north of the area. Pops
will increase from north to south over the weekend with highest
pops across SE ga on Saturday and as far south as the i-10
corridor Sunday. Pops will increase area wide Monday as the deep
moisture axis moves over the area with highest pops along the
coast due to convergence. Pops will decrease some Tuesday as drier
air advects NE into the area. Afternoon temps will above normal

Near 90 to the lower 90s... Inland over the weekend with
coastal areas remaining in the 80s due to afternoon seabreeze.

Temps early next week will trend down some early next week
but still remain above normal well inland.

Aviation
GenerallyVFR this morning for all TAF sites except vqq where
shallow fog often limits visibility across the local area. Weak
southerly flow this afternoon with both coastal sea-breeze
boundaries moving in. East coast TAF sites will see a slight wind
direction shift from south to southeast. Vcts for gnv in 06z taf
package with vcsh elsewhere given low probability of convection
along i-95 corridor. As showers and thunderstorms linger into the
evening hours, could see convective changes in later TAF packages
as confidence increases. Could once again see some shallow fog in
spots Thursday morning.

Marine
Pressure gradient remains weak as ridge to the east continues to
build over the area through the rest of the work week. Eventually
see a frontal boundary move in from the north and stall north of
the area on Saturday and possibly move into the waters on Sunday.

High pressure shifts northward into early next week, pushing the
rich moisture axis over the area with easterly flow.

High astronomical tides: recent high tides have reached minor
flood criteria at the st. Simons island village pier site. Over
the next several days, likely to see similar readings at this
site during high tide.

Rip currents: moderate risk during the afternoon as flow shifts
onshore as the sea-breeze moves inland.

Preliminary point temps pops
Amg 91 73 91 72 30 40 40 30
ssi 88 77 89 76 20 20 30 30
jax 91 75 91 74 30 30 30 20
sgj 89 75 89 75 20 20 10 10
gnv 93 73 92 73 40 20 20 10
ocf 92 72 93 73 40 20 10 20

Jax watches warnings advisories
Fl... None.

Ga... None.

Am... None.

Mcginnis peterson


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
RCYF1 22 mi39 min 85°F
DMSF1 24 mi39 min 85°F
BLIF1 25 mi39 min SW 1.9 G 2.9 79°F 1019.7 hPa79°F
LTJF1 27 mi39 min 79°F 74°F
MYPF1 - 8720218 - Mayport (Bar Pilots Dock), FL 28 mi39 min W 2.9 G 4.1 79°F 85°F1019.1 hPa
SAUF1 - St. Augustine, FL 30 mi27 min W 4.1 G 5.1 77°F 84°F1018.7 hPa (-0.6)
GTXF1 - Guana Tolomato Matanzas Reserve, FL 40 mi102 min WSW 1.9 76°F 1019 hPa74°F
FRDF1 - 8720030 - Fernandina Beach, FL 44 mi39 min WNW 1.9 G 2.9 78°F 85°F1019.5 hPa

Wind History for I-295 Bridge, St Johns River, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Cecil Airport, FL11 mi32 minN 01.25 miFog/Mist70°F68°F94%1019 hPa
Jacksonville Naval Air Station, FL12 mi34 minN 010.00 miFair77°F75°F94%1018.4 hPa
Jacksonville Craig Municipal Airport, FL21 mi34 minN 010.00 miFair73°F72°F96%1018.6 hPa
Keystone Airpark, FL22 mi32 minESE 35.00 miFog/Mist72°F71°F100%1018.3 hPa
Northeast Florida Regional Airport, FL24 mi31 minW 410.00 miFair74°F72°F94%1018.7 hPa

Wind History from VQQ (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmN4444NE11NE5NE10NE6E6E7E544CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
1 day agoCalmN43SE6E5E8NE5NE5E10E10E10E5E54CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days agoCalmCalmCalm4SE5SE7SE7SE7E10E10E8E9E6E5----CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Black Creek, S.C.L. RR. bridge, Florida
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for Orange Park, St. Johns River, Florida
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Jacksonville, FL (6,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Jacksonville, FL
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.