Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for West Orange, TX
May 16, 2024 1:47 AM CDT (06:47 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 6:18 AM Sunset 8:03 PM Moonrise 1:05 PM Moonset 1:39 AM |
GMZ430 Sabine Lake- 1035 Pm Cdt Wed May 15 2024
.small craft exercise caution in effect from Thursday evening through Friday morning - .
Rest of tonight - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Lake waters light chop.
Thursday - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots, increasing to 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots in the afternoon. Lake waters choppy. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the morning, then showers with Thunderstorms likely in the afternoon.
Thursday night - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Lake waters choppy. Showers with Thunderstorms likely in the evening, then showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms after midnight.
Friday - South winds 5 to 10 knots. Lake waters light chop. A chance of Thunderstorms. A chance of showers.
Friday night - South winds 5 to 10 knots. Lake waters light chop. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Saturday - West winds around 5 knots. Lake waters smooth. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the morning.
Saturday night - South winds around 5 knots, becoming southeast after midnight. Lake waters smooth.
Sunday - Southeast winds around 5 knots. Lake waters smooth.
Sunday night - South winds around 5 knots. Lake waters smooth.
Monday - South winds 5 to 10 knots. Lake waters light chop.
Monday night - South winds around 10 knots. Lake waters light chop.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
GMZ400 1035 Pm Cdt Wed May 15 2024
Synopsis - Shower and Thunderstorm chances increase Thursday into Friday as another low pressure system approaches the area. Drier conditions are expected thereafter through next week along with light onshore flow.
Area Discussion for - Lake Charles, LA
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FXUS64 KLCH 160457 AFDLCH
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 1157 PM CDT Wed May 15 2024
New AVIATION
UPDATE
Issued at 1059 PM CDT Wed May 15 2024
All things considered, it has been a rather pleasant evening.
Temperatures in the low 90s have now dropped into the upper 70s with light east to east-southeast winds. Wind direction is set to turn to the south overnight ahead of developing low pressure in north central Texas.
By tomorrow morning, we'll be deeply entrenched in a moisture flux regime. Two features acting to funnel moisture directly over east Texas and southwest Louisiana: high pressure sliding towards Alabama and low pressure moving into east Texas. Warm front is already sitting across our coastline, as can be seen from dewpoints in the upper 60s already nosing into Beaumont and Lake Charles. This front surges northward bringing about very humid conditions and an airmass ripe for very efficient rainfall for the next system moving through tomorrow evening and overnight.
Continue monitoring the forecast cycle through tomorrow morning along with latest messaging for expecting storm hazards and timing.
11/Calhoun
SHORT TERM
(Tonight through Friday night)
Issued at 227 PM CDT Wed May 15 2024
Beautiful today with plenty of sun, warm temps, and TDs in the 60s. That will change as we move into Thursday.
Thursday will see an increase in moisture advecting into the region as ingredients come into place for another round of showers/storms. First round develops and tracks across the region late Thursday afternoon into Friday night. Heavy rain and the potential for flash flooding is the main concern with an additional secondary concern for severe weather.
Latest CAMs show iso/sct convection developing late afternoon, before a QLCS tracks east across the area during the evening.
With the QLCS, winds will be the main threat, but large hail and an isolated tornado or two cannot be ruled out. HRRR 50kt wind probabilities show a reasonable chance for swaths of wind damage/gusts with several areas registering upwards of 60kts. This will need to be watched closely as the QLCS takes shape.
As the QLCS pushes east, there is the possibility some backbuilding/training occurs across SETX and/or SW/South-central LA. This is where the highest probability exists for greater than 5" and 8" of rain. In fact, reasonable worst case scenario (90% Exceedance) from NBM is 6 to 9 inches. While anywhere could see significant totals, the best chance is in these locations mentioned earlier falling on already saturated ground and swollen/flooding water ways.
Thereafter, additional rounds of more progressive line segments/clusters of storms move across the region overnight into Friday morning. As of now, the Flood Watch is in effect until 18Z Friday, but it is possible an extension into Friday evening or early Saturday morning is needed. There remains uncertainty if another round forms and how strong/where it sets up. Current thinking is more of SW/south-central LA into Acadiana seeing the activity. This would lead to another round of severe weather with all modes possible and renewed threat for flash flooding.
LONG TERM
(Saturday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 227 PM CDT Wed May 15 2024
Mid level ridging builds into the region this weekend with a prolonged drying trend into at least early next week. Daytime highs will generally be in the lower 90s each afternoon with TDs in the upper 60s and lower 70s, which will push heat indices up a few degrees.
Some uncertainty then enters the picture by mid week with a frontal system attempting to dent the ridging a bit. Still plenty of time to watch how this evolves as we move into the weekend.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1157 PM CDT Wed May 15 2024
Generally expecting a busy TAF period. Winds are veering towards the southeast and should set up to prevail this way through much of the period after 12Z. Breezy to occasionally gusty winds will lift north a warm front through the day which may bring about elevated scattered thunderstorms after 18Z for western terminals, after 21Z near Acadiana.
Late in the period, a single rather robust MCS or several clusters of smaller MCS segments are expected to cross the area from west to east. Expecting some continuation of scattered thunder over the afternoon - primarily at BPT, LCH and AEX - due to trof axis causing storms to develop in a southwest to northeast manner.
There is low to medium confidence of storm timing after 00Z, with strongest storms expected to move through the region roughly around 03 to 09Z (after this period.)
With storms expect MVFR to IFR ceilings and all severe hazards: rapidly growing updrafts with damaging wind downdrafts (similar to storm systems we've dealt with recently), large hail, tornadoes and volatile/turbulent winds in and near storms.
11/Calhoun
MARINE
Issued at 227 PM CDT Wed May 15 2024
Shower and thunderstorm chances will increase Thursday into Friday as another low pressure system approaches the area. Drier conditions are expected thereafter through next week along with light onshore flow.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AEX 63 87 65 85 / 0 40 90 50 LCH 70 84 70 85 / 10 80 70 40 LFT 68 89 73 87 / 0 40 70 50 BPT 70 85 72 86 / 10 80 70 40
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...Flood Watch from Thursday afternoon through Friday afternoon for LAZ027>033-044-045-141>143-152-241>243.
TX...Flood Watch from Thursday afternoon through Friday afternoon for TXZ180-201-259>262-515-516-615-616.
GM...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 1157 PM CDT Wed May 15 2024
New AVIATION
UPDATE
Issued at 1059 PM CDT Wed May 15 2024
All things considered, it has been a rather pleasant evening.
Temperatures in the low 90s have now dropped into the upper 70s with light east to east-southeast winds. Wind direction is set to turn to the south overnight ahead of developing low pressure in north central Texas.
By tomorrow morning, we'll be deeply entrenched in a moisture flux regime. Two features acting to funnel moisture directly over east Texas and southwest Louisiana: high pressure sliding towards Alabama and low pressure moving into east Texas. Warm front is already sitting across our coastline, as can be seen from dewpoints in the upper 60s already nosing into Beaumont and Lake Charles. This front surges northward bringing about very humid conditions and an airmass ripe for very efficient rainfall for the next system moving through tomorrow evening and overnight.
Continue monitoring the forecast cycle through tomorrow morning along with latest messaging for expecting storm hazards and timing.
11/Calhoun
SHORT TERM
(Tonight through Friday night)
Issued at 227 PM CDT Wed May 15 2024
Beautiful today with plenty of sun, warm temps, and TDs in the 60s. That will change as we move into Thursday.
Thursday will see an increase in moisture advecting into the region as ingredients come into place for another round of showers/storms. First round develops and tracks across the region late Thursday afternoon into Friday night. Heavy rain and the potential for flash flooding is the main concern with an additional secondary concern for severe weather.
Latest CAMs show iso/sct convection developing late afternoon, before a QLCS tracks east across the area during the evening.
With the QLCS, winds will be the main threat, but large hail and an isolated tornado or two cannot be ruled out. HRRR 50kt wind probabilities show a reasonable chance for swaths of wind damage/gusts with several areas registering upwards of 60kts. This will need to be watched closely as the QLCS takes shape.
As the QLCS pushes east, there is the possibility some backbuilding/training occurs across SETX and/or SW/South-central LA. This is where the highest probability exists for greater than 5" and 8" of rain. In fact, reasonable worst case scenario (90% Exceedance) from NBM is 6 to 9 inches. While anywhere could see significant totals, the best chance is in these locations mentioned earlier falling on already saturated ground and swollen/flooding water ways.
Thereafter, additional rounds of more progressive line segments/clusters of storms move across the region overnight into Friday morning. As of now, the Flood Watch is in effect until 18Z Friday, but it is possible an extension into Friday evening or early Saturday morning is needed. There remains uncertainty if another round forms and how strong/where it sets up. Current thinking is more of SW/south-central LA into Acadiana seeing the activity. This would lead to another round of severe weather with all modes possible and renewed threat for flash flooding.
LONG TERM
(Saturday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 227 PM CDT Wed May 15 2024
Mid level ridging builds into the region this weekend with a prolonged drying trend into at least early next week. Daytime highs will generally be in the lower 90s each afternoon with TDs in the upper 60s and lower 70s, which will push heat indices up a few degrees.
Some uncertainty then enters the picture by mid week with a frontal system attempting to dent the ridging a bit. Still plenty of time to watch how this evolves as we move into the weekend.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1157 PM CDT Wed May 15 2024
Generally expecting a busy TAF period. Winds are veering towards the southeast and should set up to prevail this way through much of the period after 12Z. Breezy to occasionally gusty winds will lift north a warm front through the day which may bring about elevated scattered thunderstorms after 18Z for western terminals, after 21Z near Acadiana.
Late in the period, a single rather robust MCS or several clusters of smaller MCS segments are expected to cross the area from west to east. Expecting some continuation of scattered thunder over the afternoon - primarily at BPT, LCH and AEX - due to trof axis causing storms to develop in a southwest to northeast manner.
There is low to medium confidence of storm timing after 00Z, with strongest storms expected to move through the region roughly around 03 to 09Z (after this period.)
With storms expect MVFR to IFR ceilings and all severe hazards: rapidly growing updrafts with damaging wind downdrafts (similar to storm systems we've dealt with recently), large hail, tornadoes and volatile/turbulent winds in and near storms.
11/Calhoun
MARINE
Issued at 227 PM CDT Wed May 15 2024
Shower and thunderstorm chances will increase Thursday into Friday as another low pressure system approaches the area. Drier conditions are expected thereafter through next week along with light onshore flow.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AEX 63 87 65 85 / 0 40 90 50 LCH 70 84 70 85 / 10 80 70 40 LFT 68 89 73 87 / 0 40 70 50 BPT 70 85 72 86 / 10 80 70 40
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...Flood Watch from Thursday afternoon through Friday afternoon for LAZ027>033-044-045-141>143-152-241>243.
TX...Flood Watch from Thursday afternoon through Friday afternoon for TXZ180-201-259>262-515-516-615-616.
GM...None.
| Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air Temp | Water Temp | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
| PORT2 - 8770475 - Port Arthur, TX | 19 mi | 47 min | SSE 7G | 79°F | 77°F | 29.75 | ||
| BKTL1 | 23 mi | 47 min | 82°F | |||||
| LCLL1 - 8767816 - Lake Charles, LA | 28 mi | 47 min | 76°F | 87°F | 29.80 | |||
| TXPT2 | 29 mi | 47 min | S 16G | 77°F | 79°F | 29.75 | ||
| CAPL1 - 8768094 - Calcasieu Pass, LA | 30 mi | 47 min | SSE 15G | 82°F | 82°F | 29.80 |
toggle option: (graph/table)
| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KORG ORANGE COUNTY,TX | 5 sm | 52 min | SE 06 | 10 sm | Clear | 79°F | 68°F | 70% | 29.80 | |
| KUXL SOUTHLAND FIELD,LA | 18 sm | 12 min | ESE 05 | 10 sm | Clear | 77°F | 68°F | 74% | 29.81 | |
| KBPT JACK BROOKS RGNL,TX | 19 sm | 54 min | S 11 | 10 sm | Clear | 79°F | 73°F | 84% | 29.77 |
Mesquite Point
Click for Map
Wed -- 02:09 AM CDT Moonset
Wed -- 04:29 AM CDT 0.25 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:22 AM CDT Sunrise
Wed -- 06:49 AM CDT First Quarter
Wed -- 01:10 PM CDT 1.27 feet High Tide
Wed -- 01:10 PM CDT Moonrise
Wed -- 07:49 PM CDT 0.98 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 08:01 PM CDT Sunset
Wed -- 10:30 PM CDT 1.00 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Wed -- 02:09 AM CDT Moonset
Wed -- 04:29 AM CDT 0.25 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:22 AM CDT Sunrise
Wed -- 06:49 AM CDT First Quarter
Wed -- 01:10 PM CDT 1.27 feet High Tide
Wed -- 01:10 PM CDT Moonrise
Wed -- 07:49 PM CDT 0.98 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 08:01 PM CDT Sunset
Wed -- 10:30 PM CDT 1.00 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Mesquite Point, Sabine Pass, Texas, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 0.8 |
| 1 am |
| 0.6 |
| 2 am |
| 0.4 |
| 3 am |
| 0.3 |
| 4 am |
| 0.3 |
| 5 am |
| 0.3 |
| 6 am |
| 0.3 |
| 7 am |
| 0.4 |
| 8 am |
| 0.6 |
| 9 am |
| 0.8 |
| 10 am |
| 1 |
| 11 am |
| 1.1 |
| 12 pm |
| 1.2 |
| 1 pm |
| 1.3 |
| 2 pm |
| 1.3 |
| 3 pm |
| 1.2 |
| 4 pm |
| 1.1 |
| 5 pm |
| 1.1 |
| 6 pm |
| 1 |
| 7 pm |
| 1 |
| 8 pm |
| 1 |
| 9 pm |
| 1 |
| 10 pm |
| 1 |
| 11 pm |
| 1 |
Sabine Pass
Click for Map
Wed -- 02:09 AM CDT Moonset
Wed -- 04:13 AM CDT 0.52 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:22 AM CDT Sunrise
Wed -- 06:49 AM CDT First Quarter
Wed -- 12:35 PM CDT 1.58 feet High Tide
Wed -- 01:10 PM CDT Moonrise
Wed -- 07:31 PM CDT 1.20 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 08:01 PM CDT Sunset
Wed -- 11:17 PM CDT 1.30 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Wed -- 02:09 AM CDT Moonset
Wed -- 04:13 AM CDT 0.52 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:22 AM CDT Sunrise
Wed -- 06:49 AM CDT First Quarter
Wed -- 12:35 PM CDT 1.58 feet High Tide
Wed -- 01:10 PM CDT Moonrise
Wed -- 07:31 PM CDT 1.20 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 08:01 PM CDT Sunset
Wed -- 11:17 PM CDT 1.30 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sabine Pass, North, Texas, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 1.1 |
| 1 am |
| 0.9 |
| 2 am |
| 0.7 |
| 3 am |
| 0.6 |
| 4 am |
| 0.5 |
| 5 am |
| 0.6 |
| 6 am |
| 0.7 |
| 7 am |
| 0.8 |
| 8 am |
| 1 |
| 9 am |
| 1.2 |
| 10 am |
| 1.4 |
| 11 am |
| 1.5 |
| 12 pm |
| 1.6 |
| 1 pm |
| 1.6 |
| 2 pm |
| 1.5 |
| 3 pm |
| 1.4 |
| 4 pm |
| 1.4 |
| 5 pm |
| 1.3 |
| 6 pm |
| 1.2 |
| 7 pm |
| 1.2 |
| 8 pm |
| 1.2 |
| 9 pm |
| 1.2 |
| 10 pm |
| 1.3 |
| 11 pm |
| 1.3 |
Lake Charles, LA,
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