Wednesday, May24, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Cedar Grove, FL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 5:42AMSunset 7:36PM Tuesday May 23, 2017 11:04 PM CDT (04:04 UTC) Moonrise 4:13AMMoonset 5:18PM Illumination 2% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 28 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ750 Apalachee Bay Or Coastal Waters From Keaton Beach To Ochlockonee River Fl Out To 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Apalachicola To Destin Fl Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Ochlockonee River To Apalachicola Fl Out To 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Suwannee River To Keaton Beach Out 20 Nm- Waters From Apalachicola To Destin Fl From 20 To 60 Nm- Waters From Suwannee River To Apalachicola Fl From 20 To 60 Nm- 936 Pm Edt Tue May 23 2017
.small craft advisory in effect through Thursday morning...
Rest of tonight..Southwest winds 20 to 25 knots. Seas 4 to 6 feet with occasional seas up to 8 feet. Dominant period 6 seconds. Protected waters choppy. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Wednesday..Southwest winds 25 to 30 knots. Seas 5 to 7 feet with occasional seas up to 9 feet. Seas building to 6 to 9 feet with occasional seas up to 11 feet. Dominant period 6 seconds. Protected waters rough. Showers and Thunderstorms likely.
Wednesday night..West winds 20 knots. Seas 6 to 8 feet with occasional seas up to 10 feet. Seas subsiding to 4 to 6 feet with occasional seas up to 8 feet. Dominant period 6 seconds. Protected waters choppy. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening.
Thursday..West winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 4 to 6 feet with occasional seas up to 8 feet. Dominant period 5 seconds. Protected waters a moderate chop.
Thursday night..West winds 10 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Dominant period 6 seconds. Protected waters a light chop.
Friday through Saturday..South winds 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Protected waters a light chop.
Saturday night..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Protected waters a light to moderate chop.
Sunday..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Protected waters a light to moderate chop. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
GMZ700 Synopsis For The Suwannee River To Destin Out To 60 Nm 936 Pm Edt Tue May 23 2017
Synopsis..Advisory level winds will continue across the local waters through Wednesday night with winds as high as 25 to 30 knots on Wednesday along with seas as high as 11 feet well offshore. Winds and seas will begin to decrease Thursday with light to occasionally moderate winds through the upcoming holiday weekend as high pressure builds over the marine area.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Cedar Grove, FL
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location: 30.18, -85.62     debug


Area Discussion for -
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Fxus62 ktae 240135
afdtae
area forecast discussion
national weather service tallahassee fl
935 pm edt Tue may 23 2017

Near term [through tonight]
The 5 pm edt regional surface analysis showed a decaying, quasi-
stationary front from northeast al through southeast la, and into
the western gulf of mexico. Behind it, a strong cold front was
entering ar, and will essentially overtake the aforementioned
front on its way toward our region Wednesday. Vapor imagery and
upper air data showed a significant drying subsidence zone
developing across the north central gulf and fl panhandle, and we
expect the recent radar trends of diminishing convection across
our area to continue through much of tonight. However, isolated
storms will remain possible due to ample low-layer moisture and
mesoscale possible boundary interactions.

There is growing agreement among the global, regional, and
mesoscale nwp models in developing a vigorous MCS over the
northeast gulf of mexico near daybreak Wednesday. This would
suggest that the greatest threat for heavy rain and damaging winds
will primarily be from tallahassee south and eastward Wednesday
morning and early afternoon. Farther north and west it may be more
of a stratiform rain event, with less of a threat for flooding
and or damaging winds. We will have to fine-tune this forecast
later tonight when (hopefully) we will begin to see the formation
of the forecast mcs.

Prev discussion [752 pm edt]
Short term [Wednesday through Thursday night]
The upper low over iowa will drop southward into the mid-mississippi
valley through Wednesday before moving to the east then northeast
Thursday Thursday night. The axis of the trough will swing through
Wednesday night Thursday preceded by a strong cold front on
Wednesday. Large scale forcing for ascent with the deep moist
airmass in place with generate another round of widespread
convection spreading across the local region Wednesday and some of
the storms may be strong to severe. SPC currently has a slight risk
roughly from albany to apalachicola eastward and a marginal risk
along that line extending westward through the remainder of the cwa.

Forecast MLCAPE is in the 1000-1200 j kg range with the highest
values along and near the coast. Deep layer shear is forecast to
exceed 50 kts with the strengthening mid-level flow. The latest
ecam guidance shows 70% probability for surface wind gusts of 50
kts along portions of the panhandle and big bend coast.

Additionally, the ecam shows a large portion of our florida zones
with 30-40% for updraft helicity values of 60+ m2 s2. The main
severe threat will be damaging thunderstorm winds but certainly
a real threat for tornadoes as well.

The rain will likely be heavy at times but we are less concerned
with the potential for flash flooding. See further discussion
concerning this as well as the coastal flood watch in the
hydrology section below.

Somewhat cooler and a much drier airmass will filter in behind
the front for Wednesday night through Thursday night. The coolest
temps will be Thursday night with lows in the mid to upper 50s
away from the coast.

Long term [Friday through Tuesday]
A warming trend will begin on Friday as high pressure builds back
over the region and temperatures return to more seasonable
levels. Model guidance has a cold front approaching the forecast
area on Sunday possibly dropping into the local region early next
week when rain chances increase into the 30-50% range.

Aviation [through 00z Thursday]
Scattered tsra will continue this evening around kdhn, and across
north fl. Most of this will diminish by 04z, though isolated tsra
(30% chance) will remain possible all night. An area of ifr cigs
will likely develop at kdhn and kaby between 09z and 12z,
otherwise expect mainlyVFR conditions overnight. While confidence
in the exact timing is low, confidence is high that ra tsra will
occur at some point at all sites during the day Wednesday. Not
only will there be some locally strong wind gusts in the stronger
storms, but the winds in general will be rather strong, from the w
to SW 10 to 15 kt, gusting to 25 kt.

Marine
Advisory level winds will continue across the local waters
through Wednesday night with winds as high as 25 to 30 knots on
Wednesday along with seas as high as 11 feet well offshore. Winds
and seas will begin to decrease Thursday with light to
occasionally moderate winds through the upcoming holiday weekend
as high pressure builds over the marine area.

Fire weather
No concerns.

Hydrology
The rainfall forecast continues to be complicated. Model guidance
suggests the potential for 1-2 inches with locally heavier totals
across the region for the remainder of the day and tonight as an
initial disturbance moves through the region. The more potent
disturbance on Wednesday suggests at least some potential for more
widespread heavy rainfall, particularly across SRN ga and the
florida big bend. However, confidence in the amounts and placement
of the heaviest totals is fairly low. The local ecam output
suggests however, the heaviest rain amounts will be confined to
the florida big bend and perhaps into far south central georgia.

At this point in time it appears that the second round of rain on
Wednesday should feature rainfall amounts of 2-4 inches across
much of the area. However, it's possible that some isolated
heavier totals of 4-7 inches could occur on Wednesday. The recent
dry conditions and the overall uncertainty in the forecast again
argue against the issuance of a flash flood watch for Wednesday on
this cycle.

For the rivers, only the choctawhatchee river is vulnerable at
this time to river flooding from direct rainfall in the region.

South georgia rivers are running at very low levels, so even if
the higher amounts materialize over these basins, the river flood
risk would be minimal. Increased flows are being routed down the
chattahoochee river given expected heavier rains in the acf system
above columbus ga. As a result, rises downstream of woodruff dam
are expected through the latter part of this week. At the current
time the apalachicola river at blountstown is expected to remain
below flood stage.

For the coastal flood threat - persistent, rather strong southwest
winds will drive tides to above- normal levels Wednesday,
especially in eastern apalachee bay during the early to mid
afternoon hours. The consensus of the estofs and etss from this
morning's runs was slightly lower than Monday evening's runs, with
maximum storm tides of 4 to 4.5 feet (2 to 2.5 feet inundation).

This would fall just below our local warning criteria, but it's
close enough to leave the watch up at this point.

Preliminary point temps pops
Tallahassee 71 80 59 82 57 30 90 20 0 0
panama city 73 80 64 80 65 40 90 0 0 0
dothan 68 81 57 80 57 30 80 10 0 0
albany 69 79 57 79 56 30 90 20 0 0
valdosta 70 79 60 81 56 40 90 40 0 0
cross city 72 82 65 82 59 60 90 50 0 0
apalachicola 74 82 64 81 63 40 90 10 0 0

Tae watches warnings advisories
Fl... Coastal flood watch from 8 am edt Wednesday through Wednesday
afternoon for coastal dixie-coastal jefferson-coastal
taylor-coastal wakulla.

High rip current risk through late Wednesday night for coastal
bay-coastal franklin-coastal gulf-south walton.

Ga... None.

Al... None.

Gm... Small craft advisory until 8 am edt Thursday for apalachee bay
or coastal waters from keaton beach to ochlockonee river fl
out to 20 nm-coastal waters from ochlockonee river to
apalachicola fl out to 20 nm-coastal waters from suwannee
river to keaton beach out 20 nm-coastal waters from
apalachicola to destin fl out 20 nm-waters from suwannee
river to apalachicola fl from 20 to 60 nm-waters from
apalachicola to destin fl from 20 to 60 nm.

Near term... Fournier
short term... Barry
long term... Barry
aviation... Fournier
marine... Barry
fire weather... Fournier
hydrology... Fournier godsey


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PACF1 - 8729108 - Panama City, FL 3 mi46 min SW 15 G 18 78°F 81°F1007.6 hPa
PCBF1 14 mi46 min WSW 19 G 21 78°F 80°F1007.4 hPa
APCF1 - 8728690 - Apalachicola, FL 46 mi46 min WSW 12 G 16 77°F 81°F1008.3 hPa
APXF1 - Apalachicola Reserve, FL 47 mi79 min SW 11 78°F 73°F

Wind History for Panama City, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Tyndall Air Force Base, FL8 mi68 minWSW 1010.00 miPartly Cloudy77°F71°F83%1007.7 hPa
Panama City - Northwest Florida Beaches International Airport, FL15 mi71 minSSW 810.00 miMostly Cloudy76°F70°F82%1007.5 hPa

Wind History from PAM (wind in knots)
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1 day agoE4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE3CalmCalmCalmCalmSW4S9S10SW9SW8SW8SW8SW8SW7SW6SW4SW4W6
2 days agoS9S9S7N19
G32
NE9CalmCalmS11S13SE14NE4NE4N4NE4NE3S4SE8S9SW7SW6NW4CalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Panama City, St. Andrew Bay, Florida
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Panama City
Click for Map
Wed -- 04:57 AM CDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 05:44 AM CDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 09:35 AM CDT     1.39 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:25 PM CDT     Moonset
Wed -- 07:35 PM CDT     Sunset
Wed -- 08:13 PM CDT     -0.19 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.40.50.60.70.811.11.21.31.41.41.31.210.80.60.30.1-0-0.1-0.2-0.2-0.1-0

Tide / Current Tables for Laird Bayou, East Bay, St. Andrew Bay, Florida
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Laird Bayou
Click for Map
Wed -- 04:57 AM CDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 05:43 AM CDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 10:44 AM CDT     1.62 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:24 PM CDT     Moonset
Wed -- 07:34 PM CDT     Sunset
Wed -- 09:37 PM CDT     -0.22 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.20.40.50.60.80.91.11.21.41.51.61.61.61.41.210.70.50.20-0.1-0.2-0.2-0.2

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for (0,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Northwest Florida
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.